2024-11-06
The off-season is not weak? Traders bullish on November steel market
With the arrival of November, the market demand gradually from the "peak season" to "off-season", steel prices can continue to maintain the upward trend? A few days ago, the reporter interviewed Beijing, Yunnan, Fujian and other places traders learned that the current north and south markets have produced a certain difference, but traders for the steel market in November are maintaining a relatively optimistic attitude.
Recently, the temperature in many places in the north has dropped sharply, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has officially started the "winter" process. Ma Yanjie, deputy general manager of the steel products department of Beijing Chengtong International Trade Co., Ltd., said that due to factors such as the drop in temperature and the time needed to digest large-scale purchases on site at the end of September and early October, the demand for steel has weakened significantly recently.
The recent shipments in Yunnan and Fujian, which are located in the south, remain at a good level. Yan Qi, general manager of Nanhuitong Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., said that many units in Yunnan only failed to make financial reports in December, adding to the impact of the surprise "spending" of some projects at the end of the year, some of the expected steel consumption in December will be purchased in November, and the overall demand in November is expected to be better.
Tang Chenglong, business manager of Fuzhou Zunyue Trading Co., Ltd., also said that the company's shipments have been good recently, with 3-4 construction sites delivering goods. At present, there is still a shortage of rebar specifications in the market, and multiple specifications need to be increased.
In summary, due to the drop in temperature in the northern region, the construction progress of outdoor projects has slowed down or stagnated, resulting in a gradual decline in demand. In the southern region, the climate is better. Under the influence of some projects to "spend money" and stock up in advance, the demand still maintains a relatively good level.
In terms of inventory, both north and south, the current social inventory is basically at a relatively low level. Ma Yanjie said that the recent delivery of Chenggang and Jingye Pangu in Beijing is relatively small, the overall arrival is average, and some warehouses can see the land. At the same time, the number of steel mills in Beijing is also declining, traders are not active in taking goods, some downstream customers have to match 2-3 goods to complete, and the overall social inventory is relatively low.
Yan Qi said that at present, the overall inventory in the Yunnan market is at a normal level, but there is a certain lack of specifications. Because although the production of steel mills has basically returned to normal, many manufacturers have begun to turn their production from building materials to plates, I-beams, etc. And there is a lack of confidence in the market, leading traders to dare not replenish.
Tang Chenglong also said that at present, the inventory of agents in Fujian is not large, the inventory of steel mills is at an upper-middle level, and the overall market pressure is not too great.
In the current state of market supply and demand, traders believe that the late stimulus policy, the US election and other factors will have a certain impact on the steel market.
Yan Qi said that there are a number of important meetings to be held in the near future, and the overall market is dominated by policy expectations. In November, the steel market will show a strong trend of shock, with an expected increase of 50 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, which can be properly replenished when the price is adjusted back.
Tang Chenglong believes that by the end of the year, it has entered the sprint stage of completing the GDP target. Under the stimulation of the national "strong heart needle", the steel market in November may mainly fluctuate upward.
Ma Yanjie said that before and after the US election on November 5, the market may have a low point. After the US election is completely clear, the market will rise steadily.
Experts say the city-November 18
2024-11-18
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