2023-12-25
Multi-party game continues to intensify the steel market or the current winter storage market.
In the 51st week of 2023 (2023.12.18-12.22), the Lange Steel National Absolute Price Index was 4280 yuan, up 0.2 percent from last week and down 1.2 percent from the same period last year. Among them, the absolute price index of Lange steel long products was 4120 yuan, down 0.2 percent from last week and 1.4 percent from the same period last year; the absolute price index of Lange steel profiles was 4216 yuan, up 0.7 percent from last week and down 2.9 percent from the same period last year; the absolute price index of Lange steel plates was 4386 yuan, up 0.5 percent from last week and 0.1 percent from the same period last year; the absolute price index for Lange steel pipes was 4606 yuan, down 0.1 percent from last week and 4.8 percent from the same period last year.
According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Network, the price changes of 17 categories and 43 specifications (varieties) of steel raw materials, fuels and steel products in some parts of the country in the 51st week of 2023 are as follows: the market prices of major steel varieties fluctuate and differentiate. Compared with last week, the rising varieties increase significantly, the flat varieties increase somewhat, and the falling varieties decrease significantly. Among them, 26 varieties rose, 15 more than last week; 12 varieties were flat, 6 more than last week; 5 varieties fell, 21 less than last week. The domestic steel raw material market rose steadily, iron ore prices rose by 20-25 yuan, coke prices remained stable, scrap prices rose by 20-40 yuan, and billet prices rose by 50 yuan.
Figure 1 Change trend chart of Lange steel price index
Since the beginning of this year, the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment have increased, and some new difficulties and challenges have emerged in economic operations. All relevant parties have continued to increase macro-control efforts, accelerate the implementation of various policies, and take multiple measures to expand domestic demand. Boost confidence and prevent risks. With the continuous recovery of economic momentum, the successive introduction of various policies and the gradual emergence of policy effects, the economic operation continues to improve and the endogenous momentum continues to increase. Next year, we will coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reforms, support the growth and growth of new kinetic energy, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, strengthen the coordination and coordination of policies in various fields such as finance, currency, employment, industry, region, science and technology, and environmental protection, and strengthen macro policies. Orientation consistency.
In the short term, the domestic steel market will show a pattern of "increasing external uncertainties, the foundation of economic improvement still needs to be consolidated, the overall coordination of various policies, and the strength of counter-cyclical adjustment may be increased. From the supply side, due to the combined impact of high costs and off-season demand, maintenance and production reduction plans continue to increase, making the supply side will show a continued downward trend. From the demand side, due to the deepening of the impact of the cold winter weather, the construction progress of the project is gradually slowing down, the terminal demand is gradually fading, with the traditional winter storage time node approaching, the situation of multi-party game is intensifying, which makes the speculative demand of winter storage may be gradually enlarged. From the cost side, due to the relatively strong iron ore and scrap prices, the stable operation of coke prices, making the production cost toughness support is still obvious. According to the Lange steel weekly price forecast model, next week (2023.12.25-12.29) the domestic steel market in the policy expectations gradually clear, supply and demand double weak reproduction, winter storage game, cost toughness support and other factors under the joint influence of factors, or will usher in a volatile winter storage market.
Focus on market factors
Macroeconomics:
[Fiscal Revenue] From January to November, the national general public budget revenue increased by 7.9 in 20013.1 billion yuan year-on-year.
[Project Investment] From January to November, the NDRC approved 144 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 1.28 trillion yuan.
[Foreign Investment] From January to November, the amount of foreign capital actually used in the country dropped by 10.0 1040.33 billion yuan year on year.
[Foreign Investment] From January to November, China's foreign non-financial direct investment of 814.54 billion yuan increased by 18.4 year-on-year
Industry dynamics:
[Ore Output] Iron Ore Output in November Increased 6.6
[Steel Output] Steel Bar Output Decreased 8.8 Percent Year-on-Year in November
[Steel Output] Cold Rolled Sheet Output Grows 13.0 Percent Year-on-Year in November
[Steel Output] In November, the output of medium-thick and wide steel strips increased by 8.4 year on year.
[Steel Output] Welded Steel Pipe Output Grows 11.0 Percent Year-on-Year in November
[Steel Output] Ferroalloy Output in November Increased 5.0
[International Steel] Global Crude Steel Output in November 0.1455 billion Tons Up 3.3
Downstream Demand:
[Electric Power Investment] From January to November, the investment in power supply projects of major power generation enterprises in the country increased by 39.6 to 771.3 billion yuan year on year.
[Home Appliance Industry] Air Conditioning Output Grows 12.8 Percent Year-on-Year in November
[Home Appliance Industry] Washing Machine Output Grows 13.4 Percent Year-on-Year in November
[Home Appliance Industry] Color TV Output Decreased 11.6 Percent Year on Year in November
[Home Appliance Industry] Refrigerator Output Grows 20.4 Percent Year-on-Year in November
[Machinery Industry] Excavator Output Decreased 29.5 Percent Year on Year in November
[Machinery Industry] Metal Cutting Machine Tool Output Grows 21.3 Percent Year-on-Year in November
[Machinery Industry] Industrial Robot Output Decreased by 12.6 in November
[Machinery Industry] Generator Unit Output Grows 57.8 Percent Year-on-Year in November
[Shipbuilding Industry] Civil Steel Ship Output Grows 3.5 Percent Year-on-Year in November
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