This week, rebar prices are expected to decline noticeably, and under the influence of the off-season effect, steel prices may remain volatile and generally weak.
Domestic Reinforcing steel bar The market has continued to trend weaker recently, although… Steel prices After rebounding from last week’s roughly one-month low, rebar futures prices have still failed to reclaim the 3,200 yuan/ton level, weighed down by ample supply and weak demand. According to the black‑metals research team at Everbright Futures, although cost‑side factors such as coking coal may continue to exert short‑term volatility, the prevailing off‑season effect is expected to keep rebar prices broadly rangebound and tilted to the downside.
Specifically, from the perspective of supply and demand, Shanghai Steel Union ( Mysteel According to the latest data released, as of the week ending June 4, national rebar production fell by 95,200 tonnes month-on-month to 2.1215 million tonnes, down 63,100 tonnes year-on-year; social inventories declined by 50,600 tonnes month-on-month to 4.7961 million tonnes, up 939,800 tonnes year-on-year; mill inventories increased by 40,400 tonnes month-on-month to 1.7408 million tonnes, down 107,800 tonnes year-on-year; and apparent rebar demand dropped by 190,800 tonnes month-on-month to 2.1317 million tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 158,400 tonnes. “This week, rebar output edged lower, inventories eased slightly, and apparent demand weakened markedly, with supply-and-demand indicators pointing to a relatively soft outlook,” commented Qiu Yuecheng, Director of Black Commodities Research at Everbright Futures.
According to his detailed explanation, on the supply side, recently… Coke The fifth round of price hikes has taken effect, Scrap steel prices Prices remain firm, with blast-furnace steel mills seeing a noticeable narrowing of profit margins, while electric-arc furnace steel mills are experiencing widening losses on flat‑rolled products. Some plants have intensified maintenance shutdowns, leading to a decline in rebar output. On the demand side, domestically… Steel market We have entered the high-temperature, rainy off-season for consumption, and terminal demand has declined noticeably.
According to Mysteel’s monitoring data, from Monday to Wednesday this week, the national daily average trading volume of construction materials stood at 96,500 tonnes, up 8.9% week-on-week. Meanwhile, in the Hangzhou market, the daily average outbound volume of threaded steel was 30,300 tonnes, down 1.69% from the previous week. The Hangzhou market… Rebar inventory It remains at a relatively high level of 1.258 million tons.
“The steel market is currently at a critical juncture, transitioning from ‘strong expectations’ to ‘weak realities.’ The core contradiction lies in sluggish demand, which is unable to absorb the current high levels of supply,” Qiu Yuecheng added. Consequently, although cost factors such as coking coal may continue to exert short-term volatility, under the prevailing seasonal lull, rebar futures are expected to trade in a generally weak‑biased range, characterized by choppy price action.
