The pace of rebar leaving warehouses is accelerating.
Since April, in response to uncertainties in the external environment, domestic macroeconomic policies have accelerated their implementation and proactive efforts. Judging from the progress of new special bond issuance by local governments, 1.0665 trillion yuan has been issued so far, completing 24.2% of the year's target, an increase of 3.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
The macroeconomic policy targets proposed in the 2025 Government Work Report include: a new issuance scale of 4.4 trillion yuan for special bonds by local governments, an increase of 500 billion yuan compared to last year; an issuance scale of 1.3 trillion yuan for ultra-long-term special government bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to last year; and an increase in the fiscal deficit rate to 4%, with the deficit scale increasing by 1.6 trillion yuan compared to last year.
As fiscal policies are accelerated, their effects continue to be released. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, major economic indicators show a trend of stabilization and recovery. In the first three months of 2025, nationwide fixed asset investment totaled 10.3174 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first two months. Among them, private fixed asset investment increased by 0.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate increasing by 0.4 percentage points. Month-on-month, fixed asset investment increased by 0.15% in March. This shows that under the continuous impetus of macroeconomic policies, signs of economic stabilization and recovery are gradually becoming clear. In this environment, Rebar and other steel products have seen improved demand expectations.
The actual demand for rebar also basically verifies the above judgment. According to relevant survey data, the current weekly apparent demand for rebar has recovered to 2.738 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase, and the year-on-year decline has also narrowed significantly. In the future, as the intensity of infrastructure investment continues to increase, and the decline in real estate investment gradually narrows, the expectation of rebar demand warming up is expected to strengthen.
Recently, the operating conditions of steel mills have improved, and both long-process and short-process steel mills maintain high production loads. Taking short-process electric arc furnace steel mills as an example, according to relevant survey data, the current capacity utilization rate of short-process steel mills has gradually increased to 56.3%, showing a gradual month-on-month increase, a year-on-year increase of 7.3 percentage points, and the growth rate is gradually expanding.
The gradual recovery of steel mill production has increased the supply pressure on rebar. Survey data shows that the current weekly output of rebar has risen to 2.292 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 113,000 tons, which is at a high level for the year. May and June are the traditional peak production seasons for steel mills, and the production status of steel mills is expected to remain at a high level for the year, and the supply pressure on rebar still exists.
Currently in the peak season, the demand for rebar remains continuously improving, and inventories are also entering a stage of accelerated decline. Survey data shows that the current total inventory of rebar has gradually decreased to 7.33 million tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons compared to the end of March, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.15 million tons. With the continuous release of downstream demand, the destocking speed of rebar is expected to further increase. From the perspective of the absolute level of inventory, the current level is relatively low for the same period in history. In a low-inventory environment, inventory has a rebar price buffering effect is significantly reduced.
In summary, the current demand for rebar still faces a certain degree of downward pressure, but considering the warming expectation of crude steel reduction in China, and steel prices are at a relatively low valuation, it is expected that the rebar price will rebound after falling to the bottom and usher in a phased rebound.
