Experts say the city - June 9

My Steel: On the supply side, the supply of the five major steel varieties last Friday was 8.8038 million tons, a decrease of 0.0047 million tons week-on-week, down 0.1%. The reduction in the five major steel varieties this period mainly reflected in the rebar end of construction materials, mainly because with the arrival of the off-season, the pressure of weakening demand for construction steel is more obvious, and it is necessary to reduce production to alleviate the supply pressure; last week, the total inventory of the five major steel varieties was 13.6381 million tons, a decrease of 0.0179 million tons week-on-week, down 0.1%. Although the total inventory of the five major varieties continued to decline last week, the decline was significantly narrower than last week. In addition to the off-season impact, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday also hindered the destocking of steel, resulting in a slowdown in destocking speed. In addition, from the perspective of inventory structure, both factory inventory and social inventory showed a slowdown in destocking last week; in terms of consumption, the weekly apparent consumption of the five major varieties last week was 8.8217 million tons, down 3.5% week-on-week: among them, construction material consumption decreased by 5.9%, and plate material consumption decreased by 2.0%. Last week, the decline in construction material consumption among the five major steel varieties was higher than that of plate materials, mainly because the demand from construction sites was more significantly affected by seasonal factors, while plate materials had weak support for export grabbing, so the demand was relatively resilient. Overall, last week, the supply and demand of the five major steel varieties both decreased, the decline in inventory significantly narrowed, and the pressure on the fundamentals further emerged. On the supply side, as the off-season deepens further, there is an expectation of a further decline in domestic demand, which will impact steel mills' profits, so there is still an expectation of a decline in production, but in the short term, considering that steel mills' profits are still acceptable, the decline in steel production may be relatively limited for the time being, and the reduction will still mainly focus on construction steel; on the demand side, as high temperatures and rainy weather gradually increase, the expected decline in demand for construction materials and plate materials will gradually strengthen, and the weak reality will gradually emerge. In terms of inventory, this week, the inventory of construction materials may officially enter the accumulation cycle, and considering that plate materials have already begun to accumulate inventory, the future will be to verify the accumulation pressure of steel inventory in the off-season. Overall, in the short term, the pressure of continued weakening of steel fundamentals is unavoidable, coupled with the further strengthening of the logic of steel mill profit contraction, so steel prices will continue to fall.

Steel Home: Currently, the domestic steel market is still generally weak, and the call between the heads of state of China and the United States has provided some short-term boost to the market. On the supply side, the output of key steel enterprises in late May decreased month-on-month, and Steel Home's survey showed a slight decline in the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces, but it still maintained a high level; on the demand side, steel is currently in the off-season of consumption, high temperatures and rain have increased the impact on the market, coupled with the weakening of the trade-in effect, the supply-demand contradiction may gradually emerge; on the cost side, the third round of price reduction of coke has been implemented, iron ore lacks upward momentum, and the cost center continues to shift downward; on the sentiment side, the call between the heads of state of China and the United States is conducive to boosting market confidence, but the sustainability is questionable. It is expected that the domestic steel market price will continue to fall slightly this week. Pay close attention to the dynamics of Sino-US trade negotiations and the production situation of steel mills.

Lange: In the face of global uncertainty, countries are striving to enhance the stability of economic recovery from three aspects: enhancing supply chain resilience, accelerating technological innovation, and promoting diversified market layouts. At the same time, they should continue to firmly promote multilateral trade cooperation and build a more stable and sustainable economic recovery path. China's economy has withstood pressure and maintained stable growth, continuing its positive development, but it still needs to step up efforts to promote various economic stabilization policies and measures, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern of "dual circulation" and a unified national market; promote high-level opening to the outside world, expand new increments in external demand, strengthen the resilience of economic operation, enhance risk resistance, and ensure that the macroeconomic economy remains stable and far-reaching. From the perspective of the black series futures market, the black series as a whole closed up, with coking coal having the largest intraday rebound, with the main contract rising by more than 3%. The main contract of rebar 10 closed at 2975, up 17 for the day, up 14 points from the closing price last Friday; the weekly settlement price was 2957, down 25 points, and the price center was still below last week's level. The latest position was 2.216 million lots, a decrease of 80,000 lots from last Friday. Although it rebounded from a low level, the rebound is currently still at the hourly level, and we need to continue to pay attention to whether the 3000 mark can be effectively stood on, and there is still some pressure near 3020 above. From the perspective of the steel spot market, on the supply side: due to the impact of the profit and loss of varieties, the intensity of steel mill capacity release has changed from strong to weak, the output of pig iron has slightly decreased, while the output of varieties has varied. On the demand side: due to the impact of multiple factors, the speculative demand in the market has shown intermittent amplification, resulting in an increase in transactions in various varieties markets, but the seasonal off-season effect is also deepening. On the cost side: due to the slight fluctuation in iron ore prices, scrap steel prices have fallen steadily, and coke prices have remained stable, resulting in weakening support for production costs. Therefore, Lange Steel Research Center predicts that under the influence of easing Sino-US relations, strengthening economic resilience, the change of supply release from strong to weak, the deepening off-season effect, and the weakening support of costs, the domestic steel market this week (2025.6.9-6.13) may maintain a weak trend.

Tang Song: This week (June 6-13), the temperature in most parts of the country is close to or higher than normal, with more high-temperature weather in the south and gradually increasing rainfall in the north. Affected by seasonal factors and factors such as the college entrance examination, the progress of outdoor construction has slowed down, and terminal demand is difficult to improve significantly. In addition, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the multiple uncertainties facing the US macroeconomic environment. The uncertainty of trade policy still exists, and the tariff policy of the Trump administration is erratic. Although the market has gradually become desensitized to its short-term fluctuations, market sentiment remains cautious, and speculative demand for steel trade is difficult to increase. Overall steel demand release may decline slightly. From the supply side, some long-process blast furnaces have mid-year maintenance plans and production control plans, and blast furnace operations may continue to decline slightly; independent electric furnace production lines are expanding losses, and rebar production may continue to decline. The supply side continues to decline slightly. Overall steel demand continues to decline, the degree of steel supply decline remains to be observed, and the expected steel inventory will be adjusted narrowly, and the possibility of inventory accumulation cannot be ruled out. This week, the macro aspect includes the release of inflation data by the United States and major events such as US Treasury auctions, and the uncertainty of macro disturbances is relatively large. China will release financial and monetary data for May, and it is expected that new RMB loans and social financing scale in May will rebound from April. The domestic policy environment provides some support for the market, but the demand side is difficult to improve significantly due to the dual impact of seasonal factors and the international macroeconomic environment. Although the supply side has a downward trend, and some steel companies have begun to control production, the overall pessimistic expectation of demand is suppressed, cost support is loose, and the impact of production control remains to be observed. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate and adjust weakly this week, rising first and then falling. Below the iron ore futures, pay attention to the support near 2940, and above, pay attention to the pressure level near 3020. In extreme cases, the price may reach 3060.

Han Weidong, Youfa Group: Major international events currently include the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which requires close monitoring of recent developments! The domestic economic situation is also very clear and will not have an additional macroeconomic impact on the industry. The steel industry mainly depends on the off-season market demand. If demand is strong, the fluctuation will last longer; if demand is weak, the market will accelerate to the bottom. Production data is unusable; it is important to observe the blast furnace and electric arc furnace operating rates of surrounding steel mills, and simultaneously observe the profitability of steel mills. There is only one way to resolve the supply and demand contradiction: production reduction! Following the phone call between the heads of state of China and the US, the data on the total steel demand decline this year needs to be revised; it should be within 20 million tons, instead of the original 50 million tons. If the bottom of coal and ore prices is determined, then the bottom of steel prices this year should also be revised upwards. As long as we can get through the off-season without losing money, there will be better opportunities later!