Experts say the city - March 31

My Steel:In terms of supply, the supply of major steel varieties last Friday was 8.695 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 40,000 tons, or 0.5%. Last Friday, the output of major steel varieties increased except for cold-rolled steel. The core driver is that some blast furnaces have resumed production and increased production, resulting in a larger increase in supply. However, apart from a small number of steel mills controlling production and switching product types, resulting in a significant reduction in supply, other regions have basically maintained stability or slightly increased production. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of major steel varieties last Friday was 17.3781 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 500,000 tons, or 2.8%. Last Friday, all major varieties saw a decrease in inventory: factory inventory decreased week-on-week, mainly due to rebar. Social inventory decreased week-on-week, mainly due to hot-rolled coils. In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of major varieties last Friday was 9.1978 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.4%; among them, the consumption of construction materials increased by 2.1% week-on-week, and the consumption of plate materials increased by 1% week-on-week. Last Friday, the apparent consumption of major varieties showed an increase in both construction materials and plate materials. Last Friday, major steel varieties showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. Recently, the cost side has made concessions, and the profits of steel mills are still acceptable, with expectations of increased production. It is expected that production will continue to have room for growth in the future. The total inventory continues to decline, and demand is still in the process of slow recovery. According to the research of a century-old construction company, as of March 25, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 57.87%, a week-on-week increase of 0.34 percentage points, but still below the level of the same period last year. Recently, the market has experienced increased fluctuations due to news, but the fundamentals are still in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, which is difficult to create a strong driving force. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the growth of apparent demand.

Steel Home:Last week, domestic steel prices mainly fluctuated and strengthened, mainly stimulated by news of production restrictions in Xinjiang steel mills, and gradually returned to stability in the second half of the week. From the recent market perspective, supply and demand and market expectations are still the main factors affecting steel prices. On the supply side, the output of rebar and wire rod in January and February decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, and coupled with low inventory, the overall supply pressure is not large; the output of plate materials continued to grow rapidly, and there were few repairs of plate material enterprises recently. Demand side: Currently, it is the peak season for downstream construction demand, but investment in new projects is insufficient, and various indicators of the real estate industry continue to decline. Demand is recovering, but the strength is not large; benefiting from the promotion of trade-ins, industrial material demand is relatively stable; cost side: Recently, iron ore prices have basically shown a range-bound fluctuation, and coal and coke prices have stabilized after continuous decline, and steel costs have stabilized and rebounded; export side: Increased trade friction has an impact on both direct and indirect steel exports, which will gradually become apparent in the second quarter, and the supply pressure of plate materials may increase, but the short-term impact is limited. It is expected that domestic steel prices will show a trend of first falling and then rising, fluctuating and strengthening this week.

Lange:The current external environment is becoming more complex and severe. The momentum of global economic growth is weak, the economic performance of major economies is diverging, and the uncertainty of inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments is increasing. Since the beginning of this year, the intensity of macroeconomic regulation has increased, monetary policy has been moderately loose, counter-cyclical regulation has been strengthened, a variety of monetary policy tools have been comprehensively used, and high-quality development of the real economy has been served, creating a suitable monetary and financial environment for the continued recovery and improvement of the economy. Currently, China's economic operation is generally stable and steady progress is being made, and high-quality development is steadily advancing, but it still faces difficulties and challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and many risks and hidden dangers. We must implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, better play the dual functions of quantity and structure of monetary policy tools, strengthen the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and maintain stable economic growth and reasonable price levels. From the perspective of the black series futures market, the black series generally fell on Friday. The main rebar closed at 3197, falling below the 3200 mark, a daily drop of 9 points, up 41 points from the closing price last week, a weekly settlement price of 3198, up 13 points; the latest holding was 1.553 million hands, a reduction of 524,000 hands from last Friday, the main force began to shift and change months, the holding volume of the 10 contract has exceeded 1.07 million hands, and the difference between the 05 and 10 contracts is less than 500,000 hands. It is expected that the main contract will be changed this week. Last week, prices rebounded from the low point of last week, but the strength was limited. The 05 contract was suppressed near 3220. This week, we will continue to pay attention to whether it can stand above 3200; if the 10 contract can stabilize above the 3250 mark, it is expected to move towards the 3300 mark. From the perspective of the steel spot market, on the supply side: due to the impact of the profit and loss of varieties, the intensity of capacity release continues to increase, and pig iron output continues to increase, while the output of varieties varies. Demand side: Although steel mills and social inventories continue to decline, and the turnover of varieties has generally maintained an upward trend, the release of terminal demand during the peak season is still less than expected. Cost side: Due to the slight increase in iron ore prices, scrap steel prices are rising steadily, and coke prices remain stable, making the support of production costs turning from weak to strong. Therefore, the Lange Steel Research Center predicts that under the influence of expectations of targeted cuts in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, the continuous increase in supply release, the unexpected release of demand, and the change of cost support from weak to strong, the domestic steel market this week (2025.3.31-4.4) will fluctuate and weaken.

Tang Song:This week marks the most favorable period for construction and steel demand. Construction projects in the north and south Enter the full construction stage, and the national demand for rebar has Enter the peak demand period; processing and manufacturing enterprises are in normal production, and the demand for strip steel still has room for growth; the rigid demand for steel will increase slightly, gradually Enter the peak season of traditional demand. From the supply side, the operating rate of long-process blast furnaces is stable at a high level, and the production capacity of major products such as coils and strips is narrowing; currently, independent electric arc furnace production lines in the south are in a state of profit and loss, and the operating rate of production lines may be basically stable, and rebar production will fluctuate slightly. Steel inventories have Enter a slow downward channel, and inventories of major varieties have decreased slightly, and the actual supply-demand relationship continues to improve. Currently, steel futures and spot prices are in a relatively low mid-range area. Coupled with the increase in steel costs and the continuous improvement of fundamentals, steel futures and spot prices have a certain upward space. However, due to continuous unfavorable news from abroad and the lack of unexpected good policies domestically; in particular, the impact of the "steel control" news is gradually eliminated, and steel mills' expectations of increased production have increased, which has increased market concerns about the difference in the increase of steel supply and demand in the later period, suppressing the upward space of steel futures and spot prices. The overall black futures and spot market prices may fluctuate and adjust. After last week's narrow range fluctuation, the operating space of the iron ore futures contract has gradually narrowed, and the market is expected to usher in a trend market next. The iron ore futures contract will continue to pay attention to the support of 3170 in the short term. If it breaks, there is a possibility of falling to the previous low. Once it breaks through 3200, the market will be determined as a bullish market.

Han Weidong, Youfa Group:The current market is a typical fluctuating market. The contradiction between supply and demand is not large, but near the delivery date, the holding of black goods is very large, and there is a feeling of "the tree wants to be quiet, but the wind does not stop". The total steel inventory is declining normally, indicating that the current demand is greater than the output. The key variables in the future are: 1. Whether the demand continues to be good. If the demand exceeds expectations and leads to a faster decline in inventory, the market will usher in a peak season rebound. If the demand declines and leads to a slowdown or increase in the rate of inventory decline, the market will be under pressure until demand improves or steel mills reduce production. 2. There are administrative production restrictions, which will lead to a reduction of more than 20 million tons in the whole year, and the implementation will push up prices. 3. Special fluctuations caused by the shift and change of months in futures should be regarded as opportunities, because after the time passes, it will return to the fundamentals. There are no speculative opportunities in the current market. Normal operation, patiently waiting for clear signals.