Experts say the city - April 21

My Steel: In terms of supply, the supply of major steel varieties last Friday reached 8.7271 million tons, a 0.2% increase of 16,500 tons compared to the previous week. Except for rebar and cold-rolled steel, the output of other major steel varieties increased last Friday. The core driver is that some rolling mills stopped production for maintenance and some steel mills had insufficient iron production, resulting in a decrease in rebar output last week. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of major steel varieties last Friday was 15.8468 million tons, a decrease of 759,300 tons (4.6%) compared to the previous week. The total inventory of major varieties last week all decreased: factory inventory decreased week-on-week, the decrease mainly came from rebar. Social inventory decreased week-on-week, the decrease also mainly came from rebar. In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of the five major varieties last week was 9.4864 million tons, a 5.3% increase compared to the previous week; among them, the consumption of construction materials increased by 11.1% compared to the previous week, and the consumption of plates increased by 1.8% compared to the previous week. Last week, the apparent consumption of the five major varieties showed a dual increase in construction materials and plates. Last week, the total inventory of major steel varieties continued to decrease, decreasing by 759,300 tons to 15.8468 million tons, of which rebar inventory continued to decrease by 5.73% to 7.3316 million tons, wire rod inventory was 1.244 million tons, down 14.31%, hot-rolled and medium and thick plate inventories also decreased week-on-week, and cold-rolled inventory continued to increase. Currently, steel profits are still acceptable. It is expected that the supply side may remain at a high level in the future, while the peak season demand has resilient support. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar performed beyond expectations, the supply and demand pattern has improved, and the contradiction is not obvious. At the same time, the increase in coke prices has landed, and raw materials will also provide certain support for prices. However, the macro expectation external disturbances continue, and the upside space is suppressed. It is expected that steel prices may mainly fluctuate in the short term.

Steel Home: Last week, domestic steel market prices mainly fluctuated and adjusted, mainly due to the Sino-US tariff war and a significant increase in steel production. From the recent market perspective, the short-term impact of the Sino-US tariff war will weaken, and the market will gradually return to fundamentals. Positive factors include: first, China's economic growth was relatively fast in the first quarter, with faster growth in infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, industry, and consumption; second, downstream demand continued to increase, and the decline in steel inventory accelerated; third, the first round of coke price increases landed, and the cost support for steel increased. Negative factors include: first, real estate investment continued to decline rapidly, and the demand for construction steel continued to decline; second, steel currently has a certain profit margin, and steel mills are relatively proactive in production, and market sentiment remains cautious. Overall, it is expected that domestic steel market prices will continue to adjust slightly this week. Pay close attention to the incremental policies that may be introduced at the April Political Bureau meeting.

Lange: With the continued efforts and effectiveness of various macroeconomic policies, the national economy has started steadily and made a good start, maintaining an upward trend, and the role of innovation has been enhanced, and new development momentum has been accelerated and expanded. However, it should also be noted that the current external environment is becoming more complex and severe, the growth momentum of domestic effective demand is insufficient, and the foundation for the continued upward trend of the economy still needs to be consolidated. The US imposition of high tariffs will put some pressure on China's economy and foreign trade, but it cannot change the long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy. We must implement more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, expand and strengthen the domestic cycle, fully stimulate the vitality of various economic entities, actively respond to the uncertainties of the external environment, and promote steady and positive economic operation. From the perspective of the black commodity futures market, black commodities all fell. The main contract of rebar closed at 3076, down 25 points daily, down 55 points from the closing price last week; the weekly settlement price was 3109, down 7 points from last week; the latest holdings were 1.926 million hands, an increase of 67,000 hands daily, and an increase of 261,000 hands from last Friday; the current market is still dominated by short positions, and the price fell day by day after rebounding from the low last week, falling for 6 consecutive trading days; the lower level is close to the low of 3033 last week, and the effectiveness of the support at this position continues to be observed. Risk prevention should still be done. From the steel spot market perspective, on the supply side: Due to the impact of product profit and loss, capacity release has turned from weak to strong, and iron output has continued to increase, while product output has been inconsistent. On the demand side: Although steel mills and social inventories have continued to decline, the market sentiment of "buying high and not buying low" is quite obvious, and product transactions have shown differentiated characteristics. On the cost side: Due to the stable price of iron ore, the price of scrap steel has increased slightly, and the price of coke has increased slightly, making the support of production costs stronger. Therefore, Lange Steel Research Center predicts that under the influence of external tariff pressure, good economic start, stronger supply release, differentiated product demand, and strengthening cost support, the domestic steel market will continue to weaken this week (2025.4.21-4.25).

Tang Song: This week, rainfall in southern China will gradually increase, and outdoor construction may be affected. However, construction projects across the country are currently in a favorable construction season, and the demand for rebar has entered the peak period of "Silver April"; the demand for strip steel from processing and manufacturing enterprises may remain stable and increase; tariffs have not yet had a significant impact on the delivery of export steel; the overall rigid demand and trade transactions of steel remain relatively high in the seasonal period. From the supply side, the operating rate of long-process blast furnaces is high and tends to be stable, and it is difficult to increase the output of major products such as coils and strips; currently, independent electric arc furnace production lines in southern China are in a state of profit and loss, and there is limited room for growth in the operating rate and rebar output of production lines. Steel inventories continue to decline slowly, with differences in the rate of inventory reduction among major varieties, and the actual supply-demand relationship continues to improve. Although the impact of US additional tariffs on market sentiment is gradually weakening, the later development of the additional tariff incident still has uncertainties, and its negative impact on the expectations of the black market is far from over, and the actual impact on steel exports may also gradually be reflected. Overall, it is difficult to reverse the market's pessimistic sentiment in the short term, and market confidence is difficult to significantly improve. Although the current actual fundamentals of steel are good, and China may launch counter-tariff policies in the near future, providing certain support conditions for the bottom prices of steel futures and spot, but against the backdrop of escalating trade wars, the expected reduction in China's steel exports is increasing, and domestic demand growth is gradually entering a stagnation period. In particular, steel companies still have the motivation to increase production in the short term, which is making the pressure from supply-side growth gradually increase, and steel futures and spot prices still lack strong upward momentum, and the price increase is limited. However, when the huge negative impact of the trade war is exhausted, and the spot fundamentals are good and domestic policies are launched to boost the market, market sentiment will improve, and there are no conditions and space for a significant decline in the futures and spot markets. Therefore, it is expected that the futures and spot prices of major varieties will fluctuate and adjust during the week. Technically, the iron ore futures are fluctuating and bottoming out, and the trend is still weak, but the support near 3080 still shows strong resilience. Currently, the long and short forces are vying for stimulation here, and the trading space is significantly narrowed, and the market may change at any time. Currently, it is still recommended to treat it as a fluctuation. Below, pay attention to the support near 3070-3080, and it is bearish after breaking through. Above, pay attention to the pressure near 3110. If it breaks through 3110, it can be considered bullish.

Han Weidong, Youfa Group: April demand fell slightly compared to March, but it still maintained a good level during the peak season, allowing for continued and faster inventory digestion. Production has increased significantly since the beginning of this year, but inventory is significantly lower than in previous years, mainly due to unexpectedly high demand - cherish the moment, if there is unlimited production during the off-season, oversupply will become the main theme. Current daily pig iron production has exceeded that of the same period in 2021 and 2022 (steel price above 5000), with the annualized daily crude steel output in March reaching 1.09 billion tons. Oversupply is inevitable; only the transmission needs time. Suggested strategy:

1. Monitor demand: Focus on inflection point signals

2. Await policy: The end-of-month meeting's determination of the total domestic and foreign demand

3. Observe production restrictions: The possibility of administrative intervention

4. Follow exports: Direct and indirect export dynamics

This year's only solace for the industry is the low prices of raw materials and finished products, with limited downside potential. If prices fall to the point where mines and steel mills are universally unprofitable, production cuts may trigger a rebound. However, price elasticity has weakened—the core contradiction of the industry is no longer price fluctuations, but overcapacity + backward business thinking and models.