Experts say the city—April 14

My Steel: In terms of supply, the total supply of major steel products last Friday was 8.7106 million tons, a decrease of 14,600 tons week-on-week, or 0.2%. Affected by the US-Canada tariffs, the prices of ferrous products fell sharply last week. The output of flat steel products related to exports decreased, while the output of long steel products increased due to profit margins. The total inventory of major steel products last Friday was 16.6061 million tons, a decrease of 294,800 tons week-on-week, or 1.7%. The decrease in the total inventory of major products last week narrowed, mainly because the decrease in supply was smaller than the decrease in demand. In addition, the inventory pressure last week was mainly reflected in factory inventories, and factory inventories of both long and flat steel products increased from a decrease. In terms of consumption, the apparent weekly consumption of the five major products last week was 9.0054 million tons, down 2.1% week-on-week: construction material consumption increased by 1.3%, and flat steel consumption decreased by 4.1%. Last week, construction material consumption of major steel products was better than that of flat steel products, mainly because the impact of tariffs on export demand for flat steel products was more significant, and export orders weakened. The increase in demand for long steel products was partly due to the warming weather, and also partly supported by market bottom-fishing under a low-price environment. Overall, the steel market last week showed a situation of declining supply and demand, with factory inventories turning from decreasing to increasing, and fundamental pressure further emerging. In terms of supply, although the current spot profit of steel has weakened, it is still acceptable. At the same time, after the previous steel price decline, the downstream low-price replenishment demand has been released, so the resource liquidity has not significantly decreased, so the output is unlikely to decline significantly in the short term. According to the current expectation of steel mill maintenance, there is still room for a slight increase in the output of long and flat steel products this week. In terms of demand, with the weather further warming up, coupled with the release of the previous negative factors, market sentiment has eased, and low prices may drive a slight rebound in steel demand. In terms of inventory, the current steel inventory is in the early stage of the de-stocking cycle, and the peak season characteristics are still present, so steel inventory is expected to continue to de-stock. In the short term, the fundamentals of steel are expected to show marginal moderation. At the same time, in order to cope with the tariff shock, it has been rumored that extraordinary stimulus policies will be introduced to stabilize the economy and the capital market, so in the short term, with the injection of positive domestic macro expectations, steel prices may stabilize and rebound.

Steel Home: The escalating US-China trade war is the root cause of the decline in the prices of bulk commodities, including steel. In the face of systemic risks, the short-term impact of the fundamentals on the market can be ignored. From the recent market perspective, the aggressive phase of the US-initiated global trade war has passed. First, the US trade war has been met with strong countermeasures from China, and mutual tariff increases have reached 125% or more, making further tariff increases meaningless. Second, it has been forced to temporarily suspend the "equivalent tariffs" against other countries for 90 days, and the actual opponents of the trade war are only China and the US. The trade war will lead to the obstruction of China's direct and indirect steel exports, further exacerbating the domestic oversupply pressure, and the overall market expectation is weak. The temporary easing of the trade war may lead to a restorative rebound in the recently plummeting capital market and bulk commodity prices, and domestic countermeasures will also be strengthened. It is expected that domestic steel market prices will show a trend of stopping falling and rebounding this week.

Lange: The domestic and international situations this year have been rather special, but we have calmly and calmly responded to various risks and challenges, and the economic operation in the first quarter has continued the upward trend. At the same time, we must clearly see that external shocks have created certain pressures on the stable operation of China's economy. However, the development of China's economy has always been achieved by overcoming difficulties and challenges. We must implement more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, advance efforts to promote the early implementation and effectiveness of established policies, and introduce new incremental policies in a timely manner as needed to effectively respond to the uncertainty of the external environment. We must develop and strengthen the domestic cycle, regard expanding domestic demand as a long-term strategy, increase efforts to stabilize employment and increase income, accelerate the release of potential for service consumption while focusing on the "trade-in" of consumer goods, promote the integrated development of technological innovation and industrial innovation, and lead and create demand with high-quality supply to promote the steady and far-reaching development of the Chinese economy. From the perspective of the ferrous futures market, ferrous metals have fluctuated, with the main rebar and iron ore slightly rising, while coke and coking coal are the weakest, with coking coal falling 2.72% to 892.5 yuan. Specifically, the main 10 contract for rebar closed at 3131, up 8 points daily, down 100 points from last week, and the weekly settlement price was 3116, down 126 points from last week. The latest position is 1.665 million lots, an increase of 340,000 lots from last Thursday. The lowest point of the 10 contract during the week was 3033, and the lowest point of the 05 contract was 2962. Both contracts rebounded by over 100 points from their lows during the week. With the rebound, the daily level temporarily shows a signal of stopping the fall and rebounding. This week, we will mainly focus on whether it can stand above the "gap" below which it opened last week, returning to the vicinity of the 3200 mark above. From the perspective of the steel spot market, on the supply side, due to the impact of product profits and losses, the intensity of capacity release has begun to weaken, but pig iron production has continued to increase, while product output has varied. On the demand side, although steel mill and social inventories have continued to decline, the market mentality of "buying up and not buying down" is quite obvious, and product transactions have shown differentiated characteristics. On the cost side, due to the slight decline in iron ore prices, scrap steel prices have declined significantly, and coke prices have remained stable, causing the support of production costs to continue to weaken. Therefore, the Lange Steel Research Center predicts that under the impact of external tariffs, expectations of incremental policies, weakening supply release, differentiated product demand, and continuing weakening cost support, the domestic steel market will continue to rebound weakly this week (2025.4.14-4.18).

Tang Song: This week is in the most favorable "Silver 4" construction and steel demand season, and it is also the period when construction projects across the country are fully underway and rebar demand reaches its peak; the demand for strip steel by processing and manufacturing enterprises may remain stable and increase; and the additional tariffs have no significant impact on the delivery of export steel; the overall rigid demand for steel during the week is in the relatively high season. From the supply side, the operating rate of long-process blast furnaces is high and stable, and the output of major products such as coils and strips is difficult to increase; currently, the independent electric arc furnace production lines in the south are in a state of profit and loss, and the operating rate of production lines may increase slightly, and the growth space for rebar output is limited. The decline rate of steel inventory has slowed significantly, and the de-stocking range of major products has varied, and the real supply-demand relationship continues to improve. Although the huge negative impact of the US's imposition of tariffs last week has been reflected in the market, there is still great uncertainty in the later development of the imposition of tariffs, and the impact on the expectations of the black market and the disturbance to the real market are far from over, and the pessimistic sentiment in the entire market is difficult to reverse, and market confidence is difficult to significantly improve. Although there are positive realities in the current steel fundamentals, the bottom prices of steel futures and spot have certain support, and there are conditions and space for a rebound from a sharp decline, but against the backdrop of the intensification of the trade war around the world, the expected reduction in China's steel exports has greatly increased; at the same time, it is difficult for China to introduce unexpected policies in the short term, coupled with the increased expected increase in steel production, domestic demand has reached its peak, demand growth has stagnated, and market concerns have gradually increased. There is no strong upward driving force for steel futures and spot prices, and the upward pressure on prices is huge. As long as the rebar futures do not break through 3200, the overall trend is still in a weaker channel. Future trade negotiations will face greater complexity and uncertainty, market risks remain, market fluctuations are far from over, and risk prevention is still paramount.

Youfa Group Han Weidong: The first phase of the US tariff turmoil, "market fluctuations caused by sentiment," is coming to an end, and the market will enter a second phase of returning to fundamentals. This fluctuation tested the bottom line of spot prices for raw materials and steel under extremely negative conditions: iron ore futures contracts around 80, coking coal near-term contracts at 850-900, and the steel cost price calculated accordingly. The price difference compared to the current price is easy to calculate. We should actually see the positive side: the incremental demand brought about by the country's next step to stabilize the economy, and the reduced production brought about by supply-side reforms and production restrictions. Both of these are highly probable. Even with such an extreme event, the Tangshan strip steel price is only tens of yuan lower than the average strip steel price in the previous three months, indicating that the prices of raw materials and steel are low enough, and further downward space is not terrible. The future market still needs steady operation; don't act rashly. After the peak season demand passes, if there are no stimulus policies or production restriction policies, we will slowly wait for steel mills to actively reduce production. Prices will rise again after falling. If there are policies, refer to September and October last year, seize the opportunity to make money, realize inventory, and protect inventory when prices rise too much. Put the red envelopes in your pocket. The most important issue for the steel industry is not the price but the serious overcapacity. The biggest problem for enterprises is not the price but the lack of profit. To make money, we must change the business model and make ourselves have value in the industrial chain.