Experts say the city - May 26

My Steel: In terms of supply, the supply of the five major steel varieties last Friday was 8.7244 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0409 million tons, or 0.5%. The week-on-week output of major steel varieties last Friday increased except for hot-rolled coils. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of the five major steel varieties last Friday was 13.9854 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.3212 million tons, or 2.2%. Last week, the total week-on-week inventory of each variety decreased except for cold-rolled coils; the factory inventory of the five major materials increased week-on-week except for wire rods and hot-rolled coils, with the increase in rebar and medium and thick plates being more significant. The week-on-week social inventory of the five major materials decreased except for cold-rolled coils, with the decrease in rebar being the most significant. In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of the five major varieties last week was 9.0456 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.0%; among them, the consumption of construction materials increased by 1.6% week-on-week, and the consumption of plates decreased by 2.6% week-on-week. The apparent consumption of the five major varieties last week decreased. From the market operation trend last week, the five major steel varieties showed a supply-demand structure of supply expansion and demand contraction. Currently, various varieties still have profit margins, coupled with the support of the raw material side, the supply side maintains the inertia characteristics of high-level operation. Taking hot-rolled coils as an example, although the output last week was at a low level in the stage, it is expected that a production recovery window will be ushered in this week as the impact of previous overhauls fades. From the perspective of price operation logic, the current price center maintains a volatile pattern, and we need to be wary of the weakening of the cost support effect of the raw material side after the iron output enters the downward channel, which may lead to a downward pull on the finished product price.

Steel Home: The main problems facing the domestic steel market are high output and weak expectations. In terms of output, both long and short processes have certain profit margins. The high-furnace operating rate surveyed by Steel Home continues to operate at a high level, the electric furnace capacity utilization rate has generally rebounded, and the supply continues to increase; in terms of demand, steel inventories continue to decline, reflecting that current demand remains strong, but the later period faces the off-season demand, and expectations of weakening demand are increasing; in terms of cost, iron ore prices lack upward momentum, and coke prices are still under downward pressure, making it difficult for steel costs to rebound at least. On the positive side, whether it is steel or raw material prices, and the inventory of the five major varieties are at low levels, coupled with the expectation of steel mill production restrictions in the later period, the downside space for steel prices is not large. It is expected that the domestic steel market prices will continue to fall slightly this week. Pay close attention to the impact of steel mill production and Sino-US trade progress on the market.

Lange: Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the increasingly complex situation of increased external shocks and superimposed internal difficulties and challenges, macroeconomic policies have been jointly implemented, and major indicators have grown steadily and rapidly. However, it should also be noted that external instability and uncertainty factors remain numerous, and the foundation for the sustained and steady improvement of the national economy still needs to be further consolidated. We must adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, coordinate domestic economic work and international trade struggles, unswervingly do our own thing, unswervingly expand high-level opening to the outside world, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, solidly promote high-quality development, and promote the sustained and steady improvement of the economy. From the perspective of the black series futures market, the black series generally fell, and the main contract of coking coal fell sharply to a new low, approaching the 800 mark. The main contract of rebar closed at 3046, down 13 points for the day, down 36 points from the closing price of last week, and the weekly settlement price was 3063, down 89 points. The latest position is 2.158 million lots, an increase of 85,000 lots from Friday last week. This week, we will focus on the support below 3020. Increasing the difficulty of game playing near the 3000 mark, while 3081 is the dividing line between longs and shorts above. Only by effectively breaking through this point can the weekly line turn stronger. From the perspective of the steel spot market, on the supply side: due to the impact of the profit and loss of varieties, the intensity of steel mill capacity release continues to weaken, and the output of iron has decreased, while the output of varieties varies. On the demand side: due to the impact of seasonal weather, both speculative demand and effective terminal demand have weakened, and market transactions of various varieties have declined significantly. On the cost side: due to the slight decline in iron ore prices, the slight decline in scrap steel prices, and the slight decline in coke prices, the support of production costs has weakened again. Therefore, Lange Steel Research Center predicts that under the influence of the easing of the Sino-US trade war, the sustained and steady improvement of the economy, the weakening of the intensity of supply release, the gradual emergence of the off-season effect of demand, and the weakening of cost support again, the domestic steel market this week (2025.5.26-5.30) may maintain a weak downward trend.

Tang Song: This week, as US tariff negotiations are in a transitional period, the introduction of favorable domestic policies may be in a window period, and the impact of macroeconomic news on the market continues to weaken. The role of the basic logic of strong reality and weak expectations in dominating the black futures and spot market is further enhanced. Especially as May approaches its end, a large-scale heavy rainfall period has begun in the south of the Yangtze River, and rainfall in the north has also increased significantly. Outdoor construction may be affected, and rebar demand has entered the traditional weakening stage, and the characteristics of reduced demand are gradually emerging. The demand for strip steel in the processing and manufacturing industry remains at a high level; direct steel exports may decrease; under the sluggish market, trade speculation demand may continue to decline. The characteristics of the arrival of the off-season demand for steel as a whole may be slightly manifested during the week. From the supply side, the operating rate of long-process blast furnaces is stable at a high level, and the output of major products such as coils and strips is mainly stable; the operating rate of independent electric furnace production lines and the output of rebar may gradually stabilize. The decline in steel inventories is slowing down, and the decline in inventories of major varieties varies. There is no obvious contradiction between current supply and demand. Although the current steel reality is good, and the impact of macroeconomic news on the black market has temporarily weakened, with the arrival of the rainy season, the actual demand for domestic construction steel is showing a weakening trend. At the same time, the impact of tariff policies in other countries on the actual export of Chinese steel will be reflected. The overall apparent demand for steel during the week has entered a stagnation period. Currently, the output of iron has reached a high level, and steel mills still have the motivation to increase production, and the pressure on the supply side may gradually emerge. Especially in the absence of crude steel control policy topic operations, the entire market does not have the conditions to strongly support the rise in prices, market confidence is weak, and cautious pessimism may increase. In addition, the weakness of ore and coke prices has weakened the cost support of steel, and the support of futures and spot prices has weakened. The market is currently in the initial stage of continuous high supply and gradually declining demand, and the prices of major varieties may show weak adjustments. For the rebar futures, pay attention to the support below 3016 and the pressure near 3070 above.

Han Weidong, Youfa Group: May is drawing to a close. Overall, demand has been weaker than expected, but not disastrously so. The Tangshan rebar settlement price in May was 20 yuan lower than in April, a typical range-bound movement. The market will mainly depend on demand in the later period. As market demand gradually weakens, prices will fluctuate weakly. If demand enters a rapid decline in the off-season, causing steel inventories to rise instead of fall, prices will fall until steel mills reduce production. Currently, iron ore prices have fallen below US$100, and coking coal prices have fallen below the cost of many mines. The downward space for steel costs is not particularly large, and steel mills' profits are less than 100 yuan. We are closely monitoring two factors: 1. Steel prices fall below the cost of mainstream steel mills, iron ore falls to around US$90, and coal prices fall below the cost of mainstream mines. 2. Steel mills significantly reduce production. When these two conditions are met simultaneously, it will be the only opportunity this year, because at this time, both local governments and enterprises are willing to respond to production reduction plans and respond to anti-involution. What can truly wake up enterprises is always hitting the wall! Being full of confidence allows one to spend each day with hope, while sufficient patience in waiting for opportunities can avoid unnecessary losses.