2025-06-03
External factors and seasonal weakness in demand cause the domestic steel market to fluctuate and decline.
The Lange Steel National Absolute Price Index for the 22nd week of 2025 (May 26-30, 2025) was 3470 yuan, down 1.7% week-on-week and down 14.6% year-on-year. The Lange Steel Long Products Absolute Price Index was 3299 yuan, down 1.7% week-on-week and down 15.7% year-on-year. The Lange Steel Shaped Steel Absolute Price Index was 3441 yuan, down 1.4% week-on-week and down 15.1% year-on-year. The Lange Steel Plate Absolute Price Index was 3547 yuan, down 1.8% week-on-week and down 14.2% year-on-year. The Lange Steel Pipe Absolute Price Index was 3980 yuan, down 0.8% week-on-week and down 11.3% year-on-year.
Figure 1: Trend Chart of Lange Steel Price Index
Since the beginning of this year, faced with a complex situation of increasing external shocks and internal challenges, macroeconomic policies have been working together. However, it is also important to note that external instability and uncertainty remain high. To promote high-quality development, sustain economic recovery, and accelerate the promotion of green technological innovation and advanced green technologies, we must strengthen the green foundation of new industrialization. We need to promote the deep green transformation of traditional industries, combine it with policies such as large-scale equipment upgrades, actively apply advanced equipment and technologies, and accelerate the green transformation and upgrading of key industries. We should also guide the high-starting-point green development of emerging industries, increase the promotion of clean energy and green products, and improve the level of resource recycling.
From the perspective of ferrous metal futures, the ferrous metal sector continued to decline. The main contract for coking coal fell by more than 10% for the week, coking coal fell by more than 6%, rebar and hot-rolled coils fell by 3%-4%, and iron ore fell by 2.84%. For the main rebar contract, it closed at 2961, down 10 points daily, down 85 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly settlement price of 2982, down 81 points, showing a clear downward shift in the center of gravity. The latest open interest is 2.296 million lots, an increase of 138,000 lots from Friday last week, showing an increase in volume and a downward trend. After effectively breaking below the 3000-point mark at the weekly level, it is more difficult to return to this mark, and the weekly moving average shows a downward diverging trend, making it unlikely to bottom out. If it cannot return to the 3000-point mark next week, we will continue to monitor the downward trading space, with a reference range of 2876-3050.
From the perspective of the steel spot market: On the supply side, due to the impact of profit and loss on different varieties, the intensity of steel mill capacity release has shifted from weak to strong, and pig iron production has slightly increased, while the output of different varieties has varied. On the demand side, due to continuous disturbances from external factors, speculative demand has increased, but due to seasonal weather conditions, market transactions for various varieties have been significantly unstable. On the cost side, due to the slight decline in the prices of iron ore, scrap steel, and coke, the support of production costs has continued to weaken. Therefore, the Lange Steel Research Center predicts that under the influence of external disturbances, high-quality economic development, a shift from weak to strong in supply release, the deepening of the off-season effect, and the continued weakening of cost support, the domestic steel market next week (June 3-6, 2025) may continue to fluctuate and decline. 。
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