2025-06-06
External pressure eases, domestic demand weakens, steel market remains weak
The Lange Steel National Absolute Price Index was 3463 yuan in the 23rd week of 2025 (June 3-6, 2025), down 0.3% week-on-week and down 13.3% year-on-year. The Lange Steel Long Products Absolute Price Index was 3298 yuan, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 13.6% year-on-year. The Lange Steel Shaped Steel Absolute Price Index was 3417 yuan, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 14.6% year-on-year. The Lange Steel Plate Absolute Price Index was 3538 yuan, down 0.5% week-on-week and down 13.2% year-on-year. The Lange Steel Pipe Absolute Price Index was 3965 yuan, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 11.3% year-on-year.
Figure 1: Trend Chart of Lange Steel Price Index
In the face of global uncertainty, countries are striving to enhance the stability of economic recovery by improving supply chain resilience, accelerating technological innovation, and promoting diversified market layouts. Simultaneously, they should continue to firmly promote multilateral trade cooperation to build a more stable and sustainable path for economic recovery. China's economy has withstood pressure and maintained stable growth, continuing its positive development trajectory. However, it still needs to intensify efforts to implement various economic stabilization policies and measures, accelerate the construction of a new "dual circulation" development pattern and a unified national market; promote high-level opening up, expand new incremental external demand, strengthen the resilience of economic operation, enhance risk resistance, and ensure steady and far-reaching macroeconomic development.
From the perspective of ferrous metal futures, the ferrous metal sector closed higher overall, with coking coal experiencing the largest intraday rebound, with the main contract rising by more than 3%. The main rebar contract (10 contract) closed at 2975, up 17 for the day and up 14 points from Friday's close. The weekly settlement price was 2957, down 25 points, with the price center still below last week's level. The latest open interest was 2.216 million lots, down 80,000 lots from Friday. Despite the rebound from low levels, the rebound is currently limited to the hourly level. It is necessary to continue to observe whether the 3000 mark can be effectively broken through, and there is still some pressure near 3020 above.
From the perspective of the steel spot market: On the supply side, due to the impact of profitability differences among various products, the intensity of steel mill capacity release has shifted from strong to weak, and pig iron production has slightly decreased, while the output of various products has varied. On the demand side, due to multiple factors, speculative demand has shown intermittent amplification, leading to an increase in transactions in various product markets. However, the seasonal off-season effect is also deepening. On the cost side, due to the slight fluctuation in iron ore prices, the price of scrap steel has fallen steadily, and the price of coke has remained stable, leading to a weakening of the support from production costs. Therefore, the Lange Steel Research Center predicts that under the influence of easing US-China relations, strengthened economic resilience, a shift from strong to weak supply release, the deepening off-season effect, and weakening cost support, the domestic steel market next week (June 9-13, 2025) may remain weak. (Lange Steel Research Center, Ge Xin, 15810671409 (WeChat ID same), Please indicate the source when reprinting)
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