GF Futures: Weak supply and demand for rebar, prices consolidating at low levels
June 12, My Steel Network Released weekly output and inventory data for rebar. National rebar output fell 108,900 tons to 2,075,700 tons week-on-week, and decreased by 248,400 tons year-on-year; social inventories fell 104,300 tons to 3,751,900 tons week-on-week, and decreased by 1,955,700 tons year-on-year; factory inventories fell 19,700 tons to 1,828,900 tons week-on-week, and decreased by 272,500 tons year-on-year; apparent demand for rebar fell 90,600 tons to 2,199,700 tons week-on-week, and decreased by 71,400 tons year-on-year. Rebar output has fallen for the third consecutive week, inventories have slightly decreased, and apparent demand continues to fall, with the market in a state of weak supply and demand.
On the supply side, Coke After the third round of price reductions, the profits of long-process steel mills have expanded somewhat. However, the current profit of steel mills producing rebar is relatively lower than other varieties. Pig iron is clearly shifting from rebar to other varieties, and coupled with the continuous losses of electric arc furnaces due to low electricity prices, electric arc furnace steel mills are reducing production, causing weekly rebar output to fall to its lowest level since March. On the demand side, continuous rainy weather in East China recently, and factors such as the college entrance examination and junior high school entrance examination have also had some impact on construction work, causing overall demand to continue to weaken this week. The average daily transaction volume of building materials nationwide from Monday to Wednesday was 102,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.64%; the average daily shipment volume of rebar in the Hangzhou market was 29,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 26.32%; the Hangzhou market rebar inventory increased slightly to 657,000 tons. Currently, the rebar spot market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the phenomenon of shortages of certain specifications has not yet been alleviated, with significant price premiums for specific specifications. However, the market has now entered the off-season, and market expectations for future supply and demand remain rather pessimistic. It is expected that the rebar futures market will mainly consolidate at low levels in the short term. (Guangqi Black Team, Qiu Yuecheng)
