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2025-06-19

What has the situation of steel demand in China been like over the past five years?

Over the past five years, in the face of downward pressure on the domestic and international economies, the decision-making departments have implemented proactive macroeconomic policies, and various counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment measures have yielded significant results, with key indicators of national total steel demand showing substantial growth. According to statistical data calculations, compared to 2020 (the same below), the total added value of large-scale industries nationwide in 2024 increased by approximately 25.7%, with the output value of the manufacturing industry increasing by approximately 26%. (See Table 1)

Table 1: Annual Growth of Added Value of Large-Scale Industries and Manufacturing Industries

Year	Added Value of Large-Scale Industries Compared to the Previous Year (%)	Added Value of Manufacturing Industries Compared to the Previous Year (%)
2021	9.6	9.8
2022	3.6	3.0
2023	4.6	5.0
2024	5.8	6.1
2024 Compared to 2020	25.7	26

Some important steel-consuming products also saw double-digit or even exponential growth during the same period. Compared to 2020, the output of refrigerators increased by 15.3%, shipbuilding completion increased by 25%, automobile production increased by 25.1%, air conditioning production increased by 26.3%, washing machine production increased by 45.9%, industrial robot production increased by 135%, and container production increased by 203.1% in 2024. (See Table 2)

Table 2: Growth of Major Steel-Consuming Product Output

Product	2024 Compared to 2020 (%)
Automobiles	25.1
Ships	25.0
Refrigerators	15.3
Washing Machines	45.9
Air Conditioners	26.3
Industrial Robots	135
Containers	203

Fixed asset investment, an important driver of total steel demand, has also continued to grow year after year, showing a continuous expansion of overall investment scale. Although real estate development investment has seen a significant decline, it has significantly hampered the growth rate of fixed asset investment. According to statistical data calculations, compared to 2020, fixed asset investment nationwide increased by approximately 11.5% in 2024. (See Table 3)

Table 3: Annual Growth of Fixed Asset Investment

Year	Compared to the Previous Year (%)
2021	4.9
2022	5.1
2023	3.0
2024	3.2
2024 Compared to 2020	11.5

Steel exports, another engine driving total steel demand, have continued to grow strongly. According to the General Administration of Customs, the national steel export volume reached 110.72 million tons in 2024, an increase of 106% compared to 53.67 million tons in 2020. (See Table 4)

Table 4: National Steel Export Situation

Year	Export Volume (10,000 tons)	Compared to the Previous Year (%)
2020	5367.1	-16.5
2021	6689.5	24.6
2022	6732.2	0.9
2023	9026.4	36.2
2024	11071.6	22.7
2024 Compared to 2020		106

In the first five months of this year, the "three engines" of national steel demand continued to perform strongly. Among them, the added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.3% year-on-year, continuing a stable growth trend, and the output of most steel-consuming products such as automobiles, metal-cutting machine tools, generator sets, and industrial robots all showed double-digit growth. The scale of fixed asset investment continued to expand, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and after deducting real estate development investment, fixed asset investment nationwide increased by 7.7%. During the same period, the country exported 48.469 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. This shows that the structural growth trend of national steel demand in the past five years has been positive, offsetting some of the demand drag caused by the decline in real estate investment. (Original article by Lange expert Chen Kexin, please indicate the source when reprinting)