Li Zhongshuang expects the sheet market to remain largely consolidating in the short term.
Since November, domestic cold, Hot Rolling The coil plate market shows no significant improvement, with weak end-demand and sluggish trading activity. Steel traders generally remain cautious about the near-term outlook. On November 14, Li Zhongshuang, General Manager of Shanghai Ruikun Metal Materials Co., Ltd., told a reporter from China Metallurgical News that, as the off-season effects become more pronounced, both the cold- and hot-rolled coil plate markets are expected to remain largely stable in the short term.
Li Zhongshuang introduced that, judging from market trading conditions, during the first week of November, Shanghai's market Cold Rolling Coil plate prices Prices fell by 40 yuan per ton for hot-rolled coil, while hot-rolled coil prices dropped by 70 yuan per ton. In early November, the price of Q235 hot-rolled coil in the Shanghai market decreased by 50 yuan per ton, and cold-rolled coil prices declined by 40 yuan per ton.
Overall, the market trading atmosphere remains sluggish, with downstream users adopting a cautious approach to procurement, mostly driven by immediate needs. Steel traders are experiencing tepid business activity, facing sluggish sales and difficulties in shipping goods. On the macro front, recent positive developments—such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut—have quickly run their course. Steel prices The overall trend continues to be one of volatile declines.
Regarding the future market outlook, Li Zhongshuang believes that, in the short term, the cold- and hot-rolled coil markets are unlikely to experience volatile fluctuations—they’ll most probably remain in a consolidation phase instead. The main reasons for this are as follows:
First, the positive macroeconomic influences are gradually weakening. Earlier on, factors such as the anticipated easing of China-U.S. trade negotiations and optimistic expectations surrounding policy proposals outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" had been steadily absorbed by the market, causing the underlying logic driving market dynamics to shift back toward fundamental factors. Currently, some steel companies report that order intake has fallen short of previous levels. As we enter the fourth quarter, cold- and hot-rolled coil products are expected to face further challenges. Medium-to-thick plates Demand for multiple varieties has clearly declined. According to the latest steel inventory data, the pace of declining steel stocks has slowed down, further heightening concerns among all parties about the future market outlook.
Second, effective end-demand remains relatively weak. November typically marks the traditional off-season for demand, leading to a decline in production and sales of manufacturing sectors—such as home appliances—that consume significant amounts of cold- and hot-rolled coil steel. According to November’s appliance production scheduling data, total output of the three major white goods (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) fell by 17.7% year-on-year. Specifically, domestic production of air conditioners dropped by 21.2%, while exports declined by 13.8%; domestic refrigerator production decreased by 10.9%, with exports falling by 1.5%; and domestic washing machine production fell by 2.6%, though exports actually rose by 5.0%. Li Zhongshuang believes that the downturn in manufacturing output and sales of home appliances—and other industries—will inevitably pull down demand for cold- and hot-rolled coil steel. He anticipates that by November, the already subdued demand situation for these steel products will become even more pronounced.
Third, the pressure on plate supply has eased somewhat. Recently, steel companies have seen a contraction in profitability, with current production of hot-rolled coil steel now incurring losses of nearly 50 yuan per ton. As we entered November, ongoing increases in raw material and fuel prices further widened steelmakers' losses, prompting more frequent production cuts and output restrictions, which have led to a decline in overall steel output. According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, during late October, key statistical steel enterprises averaged daily production levels that were… Pig iron 1.744 million tons, down 5.8% from the previous ten-day period and 7.5% year-on-year; average daily crude steel production stood at 1.817 million tons, a decrease of 9.8% compared to the previous ten-day period and 13.2% year-on-year; average daily steel production reached 1.995 million tons, up 0.9% from the previous ten-day period but down 5.9% year-on-year.
Li Zhongshuang believes that as the off-season approaches, resources released onto the market in the later period will gradually decrease, which will help ease the supply-demand imbalance and stabilize prices for both cold- and hot-rolled coil products.
