The steel market is in a weak equilibrium characterized by “contracting supply and pressured demand.”
In 2025, Rebar The market continues to exhibit a weak supply-and-demand dynamic, with the overall price center of gravity shifting downward. Looking ahead to 2026, amid ongoing efforts to curb "involution" and continued implementation of supply-side policies, coupled with persistently weak real estate demand and limited supportive role of manufacturing, the rebar market is expected to remain in a weak state. Prices are likely to fluctuate within a range of 3,000 to 3,500 yuan per ton, and the year’s price trend may take on an “M” shape.
In 2025, global crude steel production is expected to contract overall. From January to October, global crude steel output reached 1,517.13 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.86%. Affected by environmental protection measures and restrictions on production, as well as domestic demand, steel mills have shown weaker production enthusiasm. China's crude steel output totaled 817.41 million tons, down 30.16 million tons from the previous year—a decline of 3.56%, indicating a significant contraction in supply. In 2025, macroeconomic policies will continue to promote "reduction in volume, greening, and integration" within the steel industry. In September, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and four other departments jointly issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Steel Industry (2025–2026)." In October, the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry (Draft for Comments)" were released, proposing to uniformly raise the replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking capacities to no less than 1.5:1, thereby further tightening regulations on new capacity additions. For the full year 2025, China's crude steel output is forecast to range between 970 million and 980 million tons, representing a decline of 2.5% to 3.5% compared to 2024.
From the perspective of production rhythm, in 2025, the blast furnace utilization rate at steel mills will be equivalent to the daily average. Ironwater production The market is showing a trend of oscillating declines. Blast furnace operating rates rose to above 84.6% twice—in May and October—before subsequently falling again due to factors such as maintenance shutdowns and reduced production. Daily average pig iron output reached a peak of 2.4564 million tons in the week ending May 9, after which it began to fluctuate downward, dropping to 2.323 million tons by early December. From a profitability perspective, rebar blast furnace profits turned weaker after reaching an annual high of 282 yuan per ton in late July; they turned negative for the first time in early September, and losses widened to 99 yuan per ton by early November. However, profits saw a slight recovery in December thanks to some cost reductions. Lower profits have dampened steel mills’ production enthusiasm, and crude steel output in 2026 is expected to remain capped below 1 billion tons, with supply continuing its contractionary trend.
From January to October 2025, China’s apparent consumption of crude steel totaled 707.9926 million tons, down 6.37 percentage points year-on-year. It is projected that the country’s full-year consumption will range between 890 million and 900 million tons. Among these, the demand structure is showing a clear trend of differentiation.
Looking at the real estate sector, property investment data continue to weaken. From January to October 2025, the nationwide completed real estate development investment totaled 7,356.27 billion yuan, down 14.77% year-on-year; the area of newly started housing projects reached 490.6139 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8% over the same period last year. Despite the central bank’s reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for terms of five years or longer and cuts in public housing fund loan rates earlier this year, as well as mortgage restrictions being eased and home-buying subsidies introduced in many regions, key indicators such as sales, new starts, and completions continue to hit new lows, putting ongoing downward pressure on demand for construction steel.
From an infrastructure perspective, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, weakening its supporting role. From January to November 2025, China’s infrastructure investment growth has generally been on a downward trend, falling to -1.1% in November. Although fiscal tools such as special-purpose bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds continue to exert their effects, it will still take time for these funds to be effectively channeled into tangible benefits. Moreover, the current policy investment structure is tilting toward “dual priorities” and “new areas,” which limits its direct impact on rebar consumption.
From an export perspective, the total volume of steel exports reached a new high, yet structural pressures are becoming increasingly evident. From January to October 2025, China’s cumulative steel exports totaled 97.73 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.57%, and the export scale has remained at a high level. However, it is worth noting that the average export price of steel continues to face downward pressure. Moreover, this year, several countries—including Vietnam and South Korea—have imposed anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese steel products, while the European Union and Mexico have continued to launch anti-dumping investigations. The tightening of approval procedures has led to higher compliance costs for exporters. Although the U.S.’s high-tariff policy has had limited direct impact on exports, indirect exports via re-export trade have been hindered as a result. In 2026, the growth rate of steel exports may slow down.
From the perspective of manufacturing investment, China’s fixed-asset investment as a whole remains under pressure, yet manufacturing investment continues to demonstrate resilience. In the first three quarters of 2025, manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, significantly outpacing investment in infrastructure and real estate. Among these, high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showed particularly strong performance. In 2026, China’s manufacturing sector is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend, serving as a key driver of steel consumption.
In 2025, the overall inventory of the black industry chain is accumulating. Although social steel inventories are generally lower than in previous years, destocking remains slow—especially this year, when the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" and "Golden September and Silver October" have underperformed expectations. Currently, winter stockpiling has also started later than in previous years and is not being carried out with sufficient intensity.
From the cost perspective, within the year... Iron ore The price center of gravity has shifted downward, with the average import price from January to November 2025 standing at USD 97.18 per ton. In 2026, globally... Iron ore supply Further easing is expected, with the Simandou project gradually ramping up production. The four major mines still have some plans for output increases. The price center is forecast to remain in the range of $90–$100 per ton, which will weaken support for finished-product costs. 2025 Coke 、 Coking coal price The decline was significant, and the price concessions on the cost side have to some extent alleviated the loss pressure on steel mills. However, since demand remains difficult to improve, overall profits across the industrial chain remain thin.
In terms of profitability, steel mills continue to hover around the break-even point. In 2025, blast furnace profits for rebar have mostly fluctuated narrowly within a range of no more than 100 yuan per ton, and at times even slipped into losses. This low-profit environment is compelling steel mills to moderate their production pace and increasingly favor sourcing high-grade, low-impurity iron ore to enhance efficiency. As a result, cost control and production flexibility have become critical factors.
Overall, the rebar market in 2026 will likely remain in a weak equilibrium characterized by “contracting supply and pressured demand.” From a policy perspective, the overarching direction of “controlling total output and optimizing structure” remains unchanged, and production will continue to be strictly regulated. On the demand side, the real estate sector is unlikely to see significant improvement in the short term, while infrastructure investment provides only limited support. Export growth may slow down, making manufacturing the mainstay of steel consumption. The core contradiction in the market lies in the interplay between supply contraction driven by policy measures and demand contraction resulting from the downturn in the real estate sector. At the same time, we need to remain vigilant about risk factors such as increased overseas iron ore supply, changes in the trade environment, and the pace of macroeconomic policies. (Author’s affiliation: New Era Futures)
