2024-11-18
Off-season conversion node coming steel market or will shock decline
In the 46th week of 2024 (2024.11.11-11.15), the national absolute price index of Lange steel was 3732 yuan, down 2.0 from last week and 12.0 from the same period last year. Among them, the absolute price index of Lange steel long products was 3535 yuan, down 3.2 from last week and 14.1 from the same period last year. The absolute price index of Lange steel profiles was 3646 yuan, down 1.5 from last week and 12.3 from the same period last year; the absolute price index of Lange steel sheet was 3825 yuan, down 1.3 percent from last week and 11.4 percent from the same period last year, while the absolute price index of Lange steel pipe was 4345 yuan, down 0.7 percent from last week and 5.0 percent from the same period last year.
Figure 1 Change trend chart of Lange steel price index
With the accelerated implementation of the stock policy and the introduction of a package of incremental policies, the national economy has made steady progress, the main indicators have rebounded significantly, and positive factors have accumulated. However, it should also be noted that the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, domestic effective demand is weak, and the foundation for sustained economic recovery still needs to be consolidated. It is necessary to adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress amidst stability, implement the new development concept in a complete, accurate and comprehensive manner, solidly promote high-quality development, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, step up efforts to promote the implementation of a package of incremental policies, and consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery.
From the black futures market, the black system overall break down, the day iron ore fell more than 3%, thread and hot roll fell more than 2%. The main thread closed 3232, down 94 points a day and 135 points a week. The weekly settlement price 3277, down 134 points from last week. At present, the position is 1.8 million, which is basically the same as last Friday. From a technical point of view, the market ended 4 days of sideways volatility, downward breakthrough, the price to the next step, the current weekly line, daily line signal is weak, Friday accelerated decline, fell below the 3250, there is still a small decline in space.
From the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to policy expectations and the impact of variety profit and loss, capacity release from strong to weak, iron production decreased slightly, while variety production increased. Demand side: With the arrival of the off-season conversion node, terminal demand will gradually weaken, market transactions began to decline across the board, "news level" for the market impact gradually weakened. Cost side: As iron ore prices fell slightly, scrap prices fluctuated significantly, coke prices fell slightly, making production cost support is expected to weaken. Therefore, Lange Iron and Steel Research Center expects (2024.11.18-11.22) that the domestic steel market will continue to fluctuate and decline under the influence of macro policies, the peak season will gradually shift to the off-season, the supply of steel mills will turn from strong to weak, the overall decline in market transactions, and the expected weakening of cost support.
Experts say the city-November 18
2024-11-18
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