Experts say the city-November 18

My steel:On the supply side, the supply of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.6158 million tons, up 900 tons or 0.01 percent from the previous week. Steel mills still have profits, driving steel mills to continue production, steel supply increased, last Friday's total inventory of large steel 12.0379 million tons, the weekly decline of 149900 tons, a decrease of 1.23 percent, last Friday's total inventory of large varieties, the factory warehouse week-on-week decline of 77400 tons, a decrease of 1.94 percent, and the social warehouse week-on-week decline of 72500 tons, a decrease of 0.88 percent. On the consumption side, the weekly consumption of large varieties on Friday was 8.7657 million tons, down 10300 tons on a weekly basis, a decrease of 0.12 percent, of which building materials consumption increased by 0.2 percent month-on-month and sheet consumption decreased by 0.3 percent. On Friday, large varieties of building materials and sheet consumption rose and fell, of which building materials consumption increased slightly. Generally speaking, from the data of the five major varieties, the overall pattern of supply and demand reduction is shown, inventory is in a state of decline, and the fundamentals are neutral. On the supply side, steel mills keep profits, steel mills continue to produce, and supply has increased, but the growth rate is limited; on the demand side, as of November 12, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 64.9, up 0.38 percentage points from the previous week, and the capital availability rate of construction sites increased for four consecutive weeks. The southern region is rushing to work, and demand is still supported; in terms of inventory, demand is still resilient and inventory is declining. Overall, the current macro policy is in a "vacuum period", follow-up demand pressure, production continues to increase, inventory may be tired, steel fundamentals will produce contradictions, the future need to pay attention to the winter storage situation, it is expected that short-term steel prices or will be volatile weak operation.

The Steel House:Last week, the domestic steel market prices to shock down mainly, construction steel fell more than industrial materials. Supply exceeds demand and weak expectations are still the main factors affecting the market in the near future. First, steel production continued to pick up, resource supply pressure is increasing. Crude steel and steel production in October were 81.88 million tons and 119.41 million tons, up 2.9 percent and 3.5 percent year-on-year, respectively, with daily average production of 2.641 million tons and 3.852 million tons, up 2.8 percent and down 1.5 percent, respectively. Steel House survey data show that the blast furnace operating rate continues to pick up, steel mills production enthusiasm is relatively high; second, downstream demand from strong to weak, demand, especially construction steel demand weakened, the recent decline in construction steel is greater than the plate, the decline in the northern region is greater than the southern region, but also a reflection of the weakening of seasonal demand. Third, the cost support is weakening. Coke has fallen two rounds in a row, some steel mills have raised the third round of price declines, iron ore prices continue to fall, and steel prices form a negative feedback. Fourth, a series of stimulus policies still need time to land, short-term demand for steel pull is limited. It is expected that the domestic steel market prices will continue to decline slightly this week.

Lange:With the accelerated implementation of the stock policy and the introduction of a package of incremental policies, the national economy has made steady progress, the main indicators have rebounded significantly, and positive factors have accumulated. However, it should also be noted that the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, domestic effective demand is weak, and the foundation for sustained economic recovery still needs to be consolidated. It is necessary to adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress amidst stability, implement the new development concept in a complete, accurate and comprehensive manner, solidly promote high-quality development, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, step up efforts to promote the implementation of a package of incremental policies, and consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery. From the black futures market, the black system overall break down, the day iron ore fell more than 3%, thread and hot roll fell more than 2%. The main thread closed 3232, down 94 points a day and 135 points a week. The weekly settlement price 3277, down 134 points from last week. At present, the position is 1.8 million, which is basically the same as last Friday. From a technical point of view, the market ended 4 days of sideways volatility, downward breakthrough, the price to the next step, the current weekly line, daily line signal is weak, Friday accelerated decline, fell below the 3250, there is still a small decline in space. From the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to policy expectations and the impact of variety profit and loss, capacity release from strong to weak, iron production decreased slightly, while variety production increased. Demand side: With the arrival of the off-season conversion node, terminal demand will gradually weaken, market transactions began to decline across the board, "news level" for the market impact gradually weakened. Cost side: As iron ore prices fell slightly, scrap prices fluctuated significantly, coke prices fell slightly, making production cost support is expected to weaken. Therefore, Lange Iron and Steel Research Center predicts (2024.11.18-11.22) that the domestic steel market will continue to fluctuate and decline under the influence of macro policies, the peak season will gradually turn to the off-season, the supply of steel mills will turn from strong to weak, the overall decline in market transactions, and the expectation of weakening cost support.

Tang and Song:This week, most of the northern part of the gradual entry into the severe winter, the northern region during the week or obvious snowfall cooling, weather conditions on the construction of construction projects gradually obvious, construction steel demand has entered a seasonal weakening stage. With the introduction of major policies into the window period, macro policies on the market disturbance support role of the weakening, the domestic black futures market sentiment cautious, wait-and-see, speculative trading, trade demand is difficult to increase; overall steel demand remained basically stable. From the supply side, with the narrowing of profits of some steel enterprises, the operating rate of long-process production lines may be difficult to increase; the operating rate of short-process decreased slightly; there were still weather pollution warnings in some key areas during the week, but the impact on steel production was limited; the supply side of steel resources remained basically stable. The market as a whole is in the stage of "supply, demand high and stable" stage. Steel social inventory into a small rise and fall stage, regional, key varieties of inventory or show from decline to rise. With the early macro policy landing, the introduction of major policies into the window period, the dollar continued to strengthen, the international macro-short impact of market sentiment cautious. However, the increase and decrease of supply and demand at both ends of the week are limited, the inventory of key varieties of steel is low, the contradiction between supply and demand of steel is not prominent for the time being, the appearance of the contradiction between supply and demand still needs time to accumulate, in terms of cost, the iron ore on the disk has fallen below US $90, the coke has completed four rounds of lifting and lowering, the low valuation of raw fuel has been fully traded, and cost support has been gradually strengthened. Fundamental conditions still have some support for market conditions. Considering the current international impact disturbance occupies the current market dominance, a little "wind and grass" domestic demand on the rapid decline of risk, market sentiment is cautious, especially the market upward driving momentum temporarily lack of circumstances, market risk aversion is still the mainstream operation, so do not rule out emotional risk aversion, the disk out of the bottom of the price. At present, from the cost support point of view, the price of the disk has entered the low valuation area, if the low valuation continues to trade, the long anti-kill flexibility will be more and more sufficient. Period snail down focus on 3200/3130 support.

youfa group han weidong:The National Bureau of Statistics announced the crude steel output in October, 2.6413 million tons per day, 0.964 billion tons per year, neutral critical value! However, the year-on-year increase was 2.9, and the output of key steel enterprises announced by the Steel Association in early November increased month-on-month, so November was still a year-on-year increase, while the output in November and December last year was a continuous month-on-month decline. In this way, the output in the fourth quarter of this year will increase significantly compared with last year. Market demand is declining in October, flat in November and uncertain in December. The market continues the trend of volatility, steady operation can be. We watch and wait for the market to bottom out or overshoot, ideally with low prices and accompanied by low steel mill production. The average price of strip steel is expected to be more than 3500 this year, 3900 yuan last year and the low point this year 3000. Falling prices now is not a bad thing. On October 4th, I told everyone to "get the lost money back and at the same time stare big eyes and pocket the profits from the inventory". Now it is time to study new problems. Will it be stored in winter this year? How to do it next year?