Experts say city - December 23

My Steel:In terms of supply, last Friday, the supply of the five major steel varieties was 8.4994 million tons, a decrease of 107,600 tons week-on-week, a drop of 1.3%. Among the production of the five major steel varieties last Friday, all except rebar and wire rod saw a decline in output. The core driver is that there is a rush to complete projects in northern regions for rebar, while wire rod production is adjusted by steel mills and production lines that were previously under maintenance are being restored. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of the five major steel varieties last Friday was 11.1841 million tons, a decrease of 207,200 tons week-on-week, a drop of 1.8%. The total inventory of major varieties last Friday decreased except for hot-rolled sheets and medium-thick plates: factory inventory decreased week-on-week mainly due to contributions from rebar. Social inventory also decreased week-on-week, with the decline similarly mainly coming from rebar contributions. In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption volume of the five major varieties last Friday was 8.7067 million tons, down 1.2% month-on-month; among them, construction material consumption fell by 0.003% month-on-month and plate consumption fell by 2%. The apparent consumption of the five major varieties last Friday showed a dual decline in construction materials and plates; demand is gradually weakening during the off-season. Macroeconomic sentiment has weakened; black series products are gradually returning to fundamentals. On the raw material side, overall prices for coking coal remain low and there are significant contradictions in coking coal fundamentals with continuous accumulation; molten iron continues to decline with weakened support from raw materials. On the finished product side, rebar and hot-rolled coils face limited pressure on fundamentals; however, due to production cuts or shifts in production types, rebar output has significantly declined. Overall speaking, macro conditions are in a vacuum period with weakened support from raw materials; if downstream demand does not improve subsequently and fundamental contradictions increase further, it is expected that steel prices may operate weakly with fluctuations.

Steel Home:Last week, domestic steel market prices generally fluctuated downwards due to disturbances from capital markets such as stocks and futures. From recent market observations: domestic steel mills have increased production cuts and shutdowns; blast furnace operating rates continue to slightly decline leading to reduced resource supply later on; market and steel mill inventories continue to decrease with little pressure on supply side. Currently construction steel is in an off-season for consumption while plate enterprises maintain normal production levels with both cold-rolled and hot-rolled outputs rebounding month-on-month. After blast furnace operating rates have declined, iron ore faces demand pressures along with high inventories while there is also some pressure on coal coke markets leading to downward adjustments in cost centers expected this week where domestic steel market prices will likely continue to slightly decrease.

Langge:Under effective macro policy efforts in November, national economic stability has gradually improved; foundations for stability are solidifying while forces for progress are strengthening with positive factors continuing to increase. However, it should also be noted that international environments are becoming more complex and uncertain while domestic effective demand remains insufficient causing difficulties for some enterprises' operations. In the next phase we must earnestly implement central economic work conference spirit by adopting more proactive macro policies aimed at expanding domestic demand accelerating technological innovation along with industrial innovation integration development promoting sustained economic recovery towards improvement. From black series futures perspective: main rebar contract closed at 3279 down by nine points daily down by eighty-one points weekly settlement price at3322 down sixty-eight points latest open interest at1691 thousand lots an increase over last Friday's twenty-four point five thousand lots large increases were seen particularly on Wednesday and Thursday cumulatively exceeding260 thousand lots although today saw an intra-day reduction exceeding5000 lots but increased positions still reached new highs since December last week saw significant downward pressure achieving four consecutive daily declines weekly effectively breaking below key levels requiring continued observation around3300-3320 resistance levels while support lies around3220 levels from current spot market perspective: on supply side due impacts from variety profitability capacity release continues weakening molten iron output continues declining showing varied performance across different products on demand side: as seasonal weather impacts expand terminal demands gradually shrink market transactions stabilize yet decline costs show signs weakening due slight declines in iron ore prices stable declines in scrap prices maintaining steady coke prices indicating potential weakening support for production costs therefore Langge Steel Research Center predicts (2024/12/23-12/27) that under influences including next year's economic growth expectations continuous weakening supplies from steel mills gradually shrinking terminal demands intensifying winter storage competition risks associated cost supports may weaken thus domestic steel markets may maintain weak small fluctuations within overall weak conditions.

Tang Song:This week many regions across China have entered their coldest period coupled with New Year's Day approaching northern construction projects nearing completion while southern projects gradually enter final stages resulting in clear signs of weakened demand for construction steels expected throughout this week although some significant macroeconomic policies will still be introduced providing certain support towards market trends but effectiveness supporting these trends continues diminishing alongside increasing negative feedback logic alongside winter storage trading dominating current trends currently off-season characteristics aren't prominently displayed basic contradictions within spot markets haven't intensified yet however as New Year’s Day approaches along with Spring Festival nearing rapid declines emerge within demands leading pessimistic sentiments rising among traders who show less willingness towards proactive winter storage purchasing terminal users exhibit weak willingness ahead stocking up only as needed maintaining weak terminal demands meanwhile exports remain high overall showing weakness within total demands accelerating reduction rates observed regarding supplies as profits narrow among steel enterprises long-process operational rates may lower short-process operational rates continue declining rolling outputs growth slows down while rebar outputs continue slight declines maintenance activities increase across certain inland areas resources supplied steadily reduce alongside adjustments made towards specific products or regional resources winter storage resources along north-south transportation gradually increasing overall market remains under “dual reduction” state social inventories begin slight upward phases regional key product stockpiles show varying degrees increases currently market sentiments reflect previous positive policy expectations alongside future negative fundamental anticipations already digested simultaneously still holding hopes towards forthcoming positive policies confidence remains fair additionally intensification conflicts between supply-demand require time accumulation short-term markets lack concerns over fundamental deteriorations thus realistic conditions surrounding supply-demand provide certain supports towards current trends however diminishing effects stemming from macro policies combined slight downward shifts cost centers dragging influence alongside winter storage logic increasingly affecting trend dynamics lead cautious operations within black futures spot markets potentially adjusting weakly focusing attention upon3250/3210 supports above observing3330/3350 resistances.

Youfa Group Han Weidong:The market has dropped again against a backdrop characterized by policy gaps during off-seasons currently coal minerals steels have all fallen into most institutions' predicted bottom zones if no significant negative factors arise below space appears limited furthermore declines aren't risks but rather small opportunities considering today's unprecedented global chaos coupled with complex domestic situations small opportunities aren't worth betting upon yet one mustn't be overly pessimistic I often say betting on rises constitutes gambling likewise betting on falls also constitutes gambling only choosing suitable business models operating steadily represents correct paths! Presently basic conditions surrounding markets appear quite good however predictions made by various websites institutions regarding next year's average price peaks remain unoptimistic leaving speculators lacking motivations toward bullish positions generally given normal circumstances suggested highs around3500 yuan for rebar3600+ yuan hot rolled yield averages not much higher than present making winter storage somewhat “chicken ribs” everyone hopes offered prices could be lower concerning next year's demands general predictions suggest a drop around1% compared this year’s5% drop already feels fortunate! Markets seem prepared adequately against unfavorable scenarios yet haven't truly prepared themselves should actual improvements occur which seems abnormal.