Experts say the market - March 10

My Steel:In terms of supply, last Friday, the supply of the five major steel varieties was 8.3428 million tons, a decrease of 79,800 tons compared to the previous week, with a decline rate of 0.95%. The total output of steel varieties decreased, with an increase in construction materials output and a decrease in plate output; last Friday, the total inventory of the five major steel varieties was 18.6029 million tons, a decrease of 188,300 tons compared to the previous week, with a decline rate of 1%. The total inventory of the five major varieties decreased, with factory inventory decreasing by 166,200 tons week-on-week, a decline rate of 3.09%, and social inventory decreasing by 22,100 tons week-on-week, a decline rate of 0.16%. In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of the five major varieties last Friday was 8.5311 million tons, an increase of 258,300 tons compared to the previous week, with an increase rate of 3.1%; among them, construction materials consumption increased by 12.9% month-on-month, while plate consumption decreased by 1.4%. With the resumption of work by downstream construction enterprises, demand has marginally improved, and construction materials consumption has significantly increased. Overall, from the data of the five major varieties, there is a pattern of supply decrease and demand increase, gradually reducing inventory, and the fundamentals are improving. In terms of supply, for construction materials, electric furnaces have resumed normal production, and some blast furnaces have increased production, with output gradually increasing. However, for plates, due to maintenance and unsaturated production, plate output has decreased; in terms of demand, according to a century-old construction survey, as of March 5, the funding availability rate for sample construction sites was 57.3%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points week-on-week. Recently, the funding availability rate for construction sites has gradually increased, coupled with improved weather, leading to increased demand; in terms of inventory, with supply decreasing and demand increasing, steel inventory is gradually being reduced. In summary, although the fundamentals of steel have improved, macro factors are significantly disruptive, and it is expected that steel prices may fluctuate in the short term.

Steel Home:Last week, domestic steel market prices continued to adjust slightly, with slow recovery in steel transactions, and the mutual tariffs between China and the United States and the downward shift in cost centers being the main reasons. Looking at the future market, the favorable factors mainly include: first, the government work report has released positive signals, with a significant increase in the intensity of fiscal policy. This year's deficit scale, new special bonds, new ultra-long-term special government bonds, and special government bonds total 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year, which is beneficial for boosting market confidence; second, the current steel market inventory is basically at the lowest level for the same period in previous years, especially for construction steel, where inventory pressure is not high; third, after the conclusion of the two sessions, construction projects across the country will enter a concentrated construction period, which is expected to drive rapid growth in demand. The unfavorable factors include a more severe foreign trade environment, accelerated recovery of steel production, and weak cost support for steel. Overall, with the recovery of demand after the two sessions, it is expected that domestic steel market prices will stop falling and start to rise this week.

Langge:This year marks the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan". We must adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, solidly promote high-quality development, further deepen reforms comprehensively, expand high-level opening up, build a modern industrial system, better coordinate development and security, implement more proactive and effective macro policies, expand domestic demand, promote the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, stabilize the real estate and stock markets, prevent and resolve risks in key areas and external shocks, stabilize expectations, stimulate vitality, promote sustained economic recovery, and achieve high-quality completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals and tasks, laying a solid foundation for a good start to the "15th Five-Year Plan". From the perspective of the black futures market, the trends of various black varieties are diverging. The main contracts for coke and coking coal rose by 1.1% and 1.79% respectively during the day, iron ore slightly rose, while rebar and hot-rolled coil slightly fell; among them, the main rebar contract 05 closed at 3252, down 22 for the day, a drop of 76 points compared to last Friday's closing; the weekly settlement price was 3282, down 35 points compared to last week. The latest open interest is 2.118 million lots, setting a new high for this contract, an increase of 226,000 lots compared to last Friday. Currently, the market trend is weak, positioned at the lower edge of the weekly oscillation range. This week, continue to pay attention to the support strength near the daily low; based on the improvement in the spot market and the divergence in the trends of finished products and raw materials, the downside space of the market is limited. If favorable conditions transform, there may also be a rebound; reference operating space: 3200-3350. From the perspective of the steel spot market, on the supply side: due to policy expectations and the impact of variety profits and losses, the intensity of capacity release has shifted from weak to strong, with an increase in molten iron output, while the output of various varieties has significantly decreased. On the demand side: with the arrival of the inflection point for social steel inventory, terminal demand is gradually being released, and the traditional off-season is also transitioning to the peak season, but the transaction of various varieties remains unstable. On the cost side: due to a slight decline in iron ore prices, stable but declining scrap steel prices, and stable coking coal prices, the support for production costs continues to weaken. Therefore, the Langge Steel Research Center expects that under the influence of the gradual implementation of policies after the two sessions, the transition from traditional off-season to peak season, the release of supply from weak to strong, unstable market transactions, and weakening cost support, the domestic steel market may experience fluctuations and strengthen this week (March 10-14, 2025).

Tang Song:This week, with the conclusion of the national "Two Sessions", the macro policies and news that disturb the market will significantly weaken, and market sentiment will gradually return to rationality. At the same time, construction projects in the north are basically fully underway, and construction in the south has entered a peak period, with continuous growth in rebar demand; processing and manufacturing enterprises are in a normal production state, and the demand for plate and strip steel still has room for growth, with rigid demand for steel continuing to rise. Especially with the exhaustion and digestion of negative market news, market sentiment is gradually improving, and traders' speculative sentiment has somewhat improved, which may enhance trade and terminal transactions. From the supply side, during the week, regions such as Tianjin and Hebei continue to implement environmental production restrictions, affecting the production of long-process production lines, with low blast furnace operating rates, and the output of rolled products still decreasing; southern independent electric furnace production lines are in the late stage of resumption and recovery, with limited increases in operating rates, and rebar output has slightly rebounded. The increase in social steel inventory has significantly slowed down, and a peak inventory inflection point may appear. Recently, unfavorable news from abroad has been constant, with the policies from the "Two Sessions" not exceeding expectations and speculation about "controlling steel". The market is entangled with both bullish and bearish news, and sentiment is slightly sensitive. With the conclusion of the "Two Sessions", macro policy disturbances have weakened, and the core of market trading is gradually shifting to fundamentals, with growing wait-and-see sentiment regarding changes in both supply and demand. Although raw material prices are weak, the cost support for steel prices is weakening, which exerts a certain drag on steel prices. However, with the rapid decline in prices, steel profits are being quickly squeezed, and the market price is approaching the cost of electricity in East China around 3200, leading to the release of pessimistic sentiment in the market. Under the gradually improving supply-demand relationship, it is expected that market prices will remain in a state of oscillation and adjustment. Pay attention to support near 3200 for futures rebar, and pressure near 3340.

Youfa Group Han Weidong:Entering March, market demand is neutral. Due to the low demand base last year, the overall demand in the first quarter has increased significantly year-on-year, and inventory has reached its peak in advance, beginning to reduce. This year's economic goals and policy intensity have been completely clarified, with domestic aspects being very positive, and there will not be a significant decline in demand domestically, while exports are expected to decrease somewhat. With the gradual resumption of production in steel mills, the decline in raw material prices has come to an end. Next, we mainly look at the performance of market demand in the peak season and whether there will be administrative production restriction measures and policies after the "Two Sessions". If price increases are due to growth in market demand, we should take the opportunity to reduce excess inventory. If price increases are due to real production restriction measures, we should maintain normal inventory operations and reduce inventory before reaching a new supply-demand balance or before the off-season. Current prices are at a low level, and as long as there is no significant decline in demand, we can operate steadily.