Experts say city - March 17

My Steel:On the supply side, the supply of major steel varieties last Friday was 8.5321 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 180,930 tons, or 2.3%. Steel production this period has seen a seasonal rebound, mainly concentrated in the more significant rebound in building material production; last Friday, the total inventory of major steel varieties was 18.2962 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 306,700 tons, or 1.6%. The total inventory of major varieties last Friday decreased slightly, and the inventory changes of building materials and plates remained consistent, with both building materials and plates decreasing. In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of major varieties last Friday was 8.8388 million tons, of which building material consumption increased by 6.8% week-on-week and plate consumption increased by 1.9% week-on-week. Last Friday, the changes in the consumption of building materials and plates among the major varieties remained consistent. On the supply side, the overall output of rebar is expected to continue to increase, and there is still room for an increase in the output of hot-rolled coils, and the supply pressure has increased; in terms of inventory, rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to continue seasonal destocking this week; in terms of demand, the apparent consumption of rebar and hot-rolled coils is expected to have further room for increase this week. The traditional peak season for demand has arrived, and apparent demand continues to rise; the rate of steel inventory reduction and the time for peak apparent demand need to be continuously monitored.

Steel Home:Last week, domestic steel market Prices fluctuated, first falling and then rising. From a recent market perspective, an unfavorable factor is the impact of Sino-US game on direct and indirect steel exports, but favorable factors are gradually increasing. First, the NDRC has clearly stated that it will continue to implement crude steel output control this year and promote the reduction and restructuring of the steel industry, improving market expectations; second, projects in various places have been concentratedly started this year and are about to enter a concentrated construction period, which will drive demand growth; third, current steel inventories are at a low level, and transaction volume continues to rise, with little inventory pressure; fourth, in early March, the output of pig iron, crude steel, and steel by key enterprises fell month-on-month, ending the upward trend of crude steel for six consecutive months, and the steel mills' production resumption efforts were limited. It is expected that the domestic steel market Price will continue to fluctuate and strengthen this week.

Lange:The 2025 Government Work Report scientifically put forward the overall requirements, major expected targets, and macroeconomic policy orientations for economic and social development this year, and comprehensively deployed the key tasks for this year. The central bank needs to balance the relationship between short-term and long-term, steady growth and risk prevention, internal balance and external balance, supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system itself. Based on the domestic and international economic and financial situations and the operation of the financial market, it will lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates when appropriate, comprehensively use various monetary policy tools such as open market operations, maintain ample liquidity, and match the growth of social financing scale and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations. From the perspective of black commodity futures, the main 05 contract of rebar closed at 3267, up 25 points for the day, up 15 points from the closing Price on Friday last week, the weekly settlement Price was 3231, down 51 points from last week. Although it stopped falling and rebounded, the weekly center of gravity is still lower than last week. The last three days of last week achieved three consecutive increases, reversing the previous downward trend. However, further increases require stabilization above 3250 this week. This week, we will continue to pay attention to the upper pressure range of 3275-3300. If the pressure is relieved, and it does not fall below 3230, it will be difficult to return to a downward trend. The changing rhythm needs to be grasped here. Once the 3330 mark is surpassed, there is still room for further increases at the weekly level. From the perspective of the steel spot market, on the supply side: Due to the impact of variety profits and losses, the capacity release intensity has weakened again, pig iron production has decreased, while the output of varieties has varied. On the demand side: As the intensity of terminal demand release continues to increase, social inventories are in a state of continuous destocking, and the volume of transactions for various varieties has also increased across the board. On the cost side: Due to the slight increase in iron ore Prices, the Price of scrap steel has slightly decreased, and the Price of coke has remained stable, causing the support of production costs to continue to weaken. Therefore, Lange Steel Research Center predicts that under the influence of the expectation of lower reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, the supply release weakening again, the comprehensive increase in market transactions, and the weakening of cost support, the domestic steel market this week (2025.3.17-3.21) may fluctuate slightly.

Tang Song:This week, domestic macroeconomic policies will enter a period of intensive release after the "Two Sessions," and the news will enhance the stimulating effect on the market. In addition, with the arrival of the true "Golden March and Silver April" traditional peak season of demand, northern construction projects are gradually entering the peak construction period, and nationwide rebar demand has entered a peak period from a period of continuous growth; processing and manufacturing enterprises are in a normal production state, and there is still room for an increase in the demand for strip steel, and the rigid demand for steel will continue to increase. At the same time, as market sentiment gradually improves, speculative demand from trade has improved, and trade and terminal transactions may continue to improve. From the supply side, with the end of environmental protection restrictions in Tianjin, Hebei and other places, the operating rate of some long-process blast furnaces has rebounded, and the output of major products such as rebar, coils, and strips has increased; currently, independent electric arc furnace production lines in the south are in the later stages of resuming work and production, and losses have increased, and the increase in the operating rate of production lines is limited, and the output of rebar has slightly increased. Social inventories of steel are showing a slow decline, and inventories of major varieties have decreased slightly, and the supply-demand relationship continues to improve. Overall, the supply and demand fundamentals of the steel market are generally not a major problem, but the degree and rhythm of demand release still need close attention. The impact of favorable domestic policies, especially the fact that the intensity of the "steel control" policy is not as expected, and the increase in expected supply pressure after the resumption of production by steel companies in Tianjin and Hebei, will continuously increase the pressure of supply and demand fundamentals driving market prices. In particular, the recovery of rebar production in the past two weeks has been relatively rapid, exceeding the level of the same period last year, and the demand side will face a test in the short term. The market's observation and concerns about the changes in both aspects of actual supply and demand are increasing, and it is expected that steel Prices will remain in a fluctuating trend in the short term. Below the futures of rebar, attention should be paid to support near 3220 and 3180, and above, attention should be paid to the pressure near 3340.

Han Weidong, Youfa Group:Positive changes are currently taking place in the market. First, people's expectations for the economy have improved, and demand growth in March has also been good, significantly better than the same period last year and reaching the level of the same period two years ago. There is a clear spirit of production restrictions in the market, and steel mills' profits are also beginning to rebound. This year, we can finally welcome a successful start to the first quarter! However, we still cannot speculate, we can only operate normally to earn current profits! In the later period, all factors will remain unchanged in direction, but the elasticity and data variables are too large. Recently, the market will focus on changes in demand. If demand remains strong during the peak season, the market trend can continue; if demand weakens, the market will return to fluctuations. The time when the market truly becomes reassuring is when the scale of production restrictions is determined to be more than 20 million tons, and the measures are strict and effective. Before that, the market is mainly a balance between demand support and suppression due to increased production efficiency!