Experts say the city—April 28

My Steel: On the supply side, the supply of the five major steel varieties last Friday was 8.7584 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0313 million tons, or 0.4%. Steel production saw a slight rebound this period, mainly concentrated in the more significant increase in the output of medium and thick plates; last Friday, the total inventory of major steel varieties was 15.3427 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.5041 million tons, or 3.2%. Last Friday, the total inventory of the five major varieties was reduced, and the changes in the inventories of construction materials and plates were consistent, with both construction materials and plates showing a decrease in inventory, with construction materials decreasing slightly better than plates; in terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of the five major varieties last Friday was 9.2625 million tons, with construction materials consumption decreasing by 6.9% week-on-week and plate consumption decreasing by 0.7% week-on-week. Last Friday, the consumption changes of construction materials and plates among the five major varieties were structurally consistent. On the supply side, supply is at a high level in the first half of the year. After profit compression, some companies have started to actively reduce production, and future output is expected to decline slowly; the output of hot-rolled coils has increased this week due to the resumption of production of rolling lines, and the output is expected to be around 3.23 million tons this week, resulting in considerable supply pressure; in terms of inventory, rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to continue to see seasonal destocking this week; in terms of demand, the apparent consumption of rebar and hot-rolled coils has peaked and fallen back. As the peak of steel demand has most likely already appeared, overall inventory pressure will gradually increase. Some regions have already seen an increase in total inventory. We need to pay attention to the speed of steel destocking and when the turning point of inventory accumulation will appear.

Steel Home: Last week, domestic steel market prices stopped falling and rebounded, and market sentiment improved. From the recent market perspective: Firstly, the current inventory of the five major domestic steel varieties continues to decline, and there is no significant contradiction between supply and demand in the market; secondly, the recent raw material market has performed strongly, and the steel cost center has shifted upward, providing some support for steel prices; thirdly, the Politburo meeting sent positive signals, which is conducive to improving market confidence; fourthly, approaching the May 1 holiday, there is some stocking demand from downstream. Unfavorable factors include the gradual implementation of the impact of tariffs on foreign trade exports as the Sino-US tariff war progresses, and the demand for electromechanical products related to steel demand has been somewhat affected, and merchants are generally cautious. It is expected that domestic steel market prices will show a fluctuating upward trend this week.

Lange: The global economy continues to recover, but downside risks are significantly increasing. The intertwined trade tensions, tightening financing conditions, and long-term structural challenges are disrupting industry and supply chains and weakening global economic growth momentum. Currently, the Chinese economy has started well and continues to recover and improve, and the financial market is running steadily. Appropriate loose monetary policies should be implemented to promote high-quality development of the Chinese economy. From the perspective of the black commodity futures market, the main contract of rebar 10 closed at 3101, down 15 points daily, up 25 points weekly, and the weekly settlement price was 3106, down 3 points; the latest holding was 1.98 million lots, an increase of 60,000 lots compared to last Friday. Prices fluctuated last week, but the weekly closing price was 21 points higher than the opening price on Monday, temporarily stabilizing at the 3100 mark. However, the weekly line is still in a bearish trend, with the price game center around 3100. This week, we will continue to pay attention to the support of this mark. From a daily perspective, after rebounding from Wednesday last week, there have been two days of downward adjustment, but if it can remain stable above the 3100 mark, a moderate weak rebound is still not ruled out. From the perspective of the steel spot market: On the supply side: Due to the impact of the "grab-the-profit" effect of the variety profit and loss, the capacity release intensity continues to increase, the pig iron output continues to increase, and the variety output has also increased. On the demand side: Driven by the mentality of "buying up, not buying down" and pre-holiday stocking, the transactions of various varieties have shown a significant upward trend. On the cost side: Due to the slight increase and stability of iron ore prices, the slight increase in scrap steel prices, and the stability of coke prices, the support of production costs continues to increase. Therefore, the Lange Steel Research Center predicts that under the impact of Sino-US tariff tug-of-war, economic recovery and improvement, increased supply release, increased variety demand, and increased cost support, the domestic steel market will continue to weakly rebound this week (2025.4.27-4.30).

Tang Song: The next period is the "May 1st" holiday, with fewer working days and more holidays for futures and spot markets, the impact of macroeconomic news on the market is weakened, and outdoor construction and manufacturing production may be affected. However, it is still the peak season for steel demand, and the demand for rebar has entered the peak period; tariff policies have not yet been transmitted to manufacturing enterprises, and the demand for strip steel may remain resilient; tariffs have no obvious impact on the delivery of export steel; in addition, before and after the May 1 holiday, some end users have stocking needs, and the overall rigid demand for steel may still be relatively high. From the supply side, the operating rate of long-process blast furnaces is high and tends to stabilize, and the output of major products such as coils and strips is difficult to increase; due to the impact of holidays, the operating rate of independent electric furnaces and rebar output may decrease. The decline in steel inventories may slow down significantly. The decline in inventories of major varieties varies, and the inventory of coil and strip varieties in some areas may increase. There is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. The volatile US tariff policy and its impact on market sentiment remain highly uncertain, and the disruption to the ferrous metal market is far from over. At the same time, the actual impact of steel exports may gradually become apparent, and the actual supply and demand fundamentals of domestic steel have entered a period of transformation. Currently, a cautious mood continues to spread throughout the market, and market confidence is difficult to significantly boost. During this period, the actual fundamentals of the steel market are generally acceptable. In particular, after the Politburo meeting, various departments have successively introduced corresponding policies to provide some support for the market. In addition, rumors of crude steel production control have resurfaced, which to some extent supported the steel futures and spot markets, enabling steel prices to rebound temporarily. However, against the backdrop of escalating global trade wars, the actual reduction in China's steel exports is gradually becoming apparent, and domestic demand growth has also stagnated. At the same time, steel companies still have the motivation to increase production during the period, which is putting increasing pressure on the supply side, and steel futures and spot prices are still facing some pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the futures and spot prices of major steel varieties will show a fluctuating and firm adjustment trend within last week. The night trading of rebar futures rose rapidly on Friday, but quickly reached the pressure level. There is strong pressure near 3170 at present. If there is no policy or production restriction favorable, there is still a certain adjustment, and the upward trend may not be smooth. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, it will be expected to hit 3270. The support levels to pay attention to below are around 3110 and 3090. If 3090 is broken, the rebound will fail. Given the many uncertainties still present in the current market, investors are advised to adopt appropriate protective strategies in high-level futures and options trading.

Han Weidong, Youfa Group: Shanghai Steel Home Spring Conference Highlights: Economists predict that tariffs will have a 1-2% impact on the Chinese economy, and China can work to absorb these impacts. Institutions believe that the demand for crude steel will decrease by about 50 million tons this year, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate or rebound in the second quarter, with greater pressure in the third quarter, and the annual average price will be similar to the current price level. The way out for the industry this year is supply-side reform and production restrictions. This year is too complicated, don't gamble on the market, because there are too many uncertainties!