Daily crude steel production may continue to decline in June.

In May, due to factors such as the "temporary suspension" of the US-China tariff war, the implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, the sustained resilience of cost support, and the seasonal shift from peak to off-peak demand, the domestic steel market showed a fluctuating downward trend, and the intensity of steel mill capacity release also weakened. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, turning from flat to decline year-on-year (see Figure 1); pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, turning from increase to decline year-on-year (see Figure 2); steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with the year-on-year growth rate narrowing by 3.2 percentage points (see Figure 3). Cumulatively, from January to May 2025, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%; and steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%.
    

(Lange Steel Research Center, Ge Xin, 15810671409 (WeChat ID same), Please indicate the source when reprinting)

Figure 1 Monthly Crude Steel Output

Figure 2 Monthly Pig Iron Output

Figure 3 Monthly Steel Output

May Crude Steel Daily Output "Two Consecutive Decreases"

From the perspective of the daily average output of pig iron, crude steel, and steel nationwide, the daily average output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel in May 2025 continued to decline month-on-month. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May 2025, the national average daily output of crude steel was 2.792 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6%, with the month-on-month decrease narrowing by 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous month (see Figure 4); the average daily output of pig iron was 2.391 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2%, with the month-on-month decrease widening by 0.8 percentage points; and the average daily output of steel was 4.111 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.4%, with the month-on-month decrease narrowing by 2.5 percentage points.

Figure 4 Monthly Crude Steel Daily Output

From the monthly data of the average daily output of key large and medium-sized steel enterprises, the capacity release intensity of large and medium-sized steel production enterprises has shifted from strong to weak. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, in May 2025, the daily output of pig iron from key large and medium-sized steel enterprises was 1.962 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, with the month-on-year growth rate narrowing by 3.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; the daily output of crude steel was 2.165 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.0%, turning from increase to decline month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%; and the daily output of steel was 2.128 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.7%, turning from increase to decline month-on-month, and remaining flat year-on-year.

Crude Steel Daily Output in June May Maintain a Downward Trend

In June, as the seasonal off-season effect deepens, the release of terminal demand will also be gradually restricted, and the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises has also weakened. From the current changes in blast furnace operating rates, the production release intensity of steel enterprises shows a fluctuating downward trend. According to survey data from Lange Steel Network, the average operating rate of blast furnaces among 100 small and medium-sized steel enterprises nationwide in the first two weeks of June 2025 was 77.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from May (see Figure 5); the average daily output of molten iron from 201 production enterprises nationwide was 2.329 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons compared to the monthly average in May.

Figure 5 Operating Rate of Blast Furnaces at Major Steel Enterprises Nationwide

From the ten-day production data of key large and medium-sized steel enterprises, the capacity release intensity of large and medium-sized steel production enterprises has shifted from weak to strong. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, in early June 2025, the average daily output of pig iron from key steel enterprises was 1.963 million tons, a ten-day increase of 2.6%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% (see Figure 6); the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises in early June was 2.159 million tons, a ten-day increase of 3.2%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.0% (see Figure 7); and the average daily output of steel from key steel enterprises in early June was 2.037 million tons, a ten-day decrease of 6.4%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.9% (see Figure 8).

Figure 6 Ten-Day Output of Pig Iron from Large and Medium-Sized Steel Enterprises

Figure 7 Ten-Day Output of Crude Steel from Large and Medium-Sized Steel Enterprises

Figure 8 Ten-Day Output of Steel from Large and Medium-Sized Steel Enterprises

With the continued release of the combined effects of policies, the effects of stabilizing the economy and promoting development are becoming apparent, and the national economy maintains an overall stable and steadily progressing development trend, fully demonstrating the resilience and vitality of China's economy. However, it should also be noted that there are many external unstable and uncertain factors, the endogenous driving force for expanding domestic demand still needs to be strengthened, and the foundation for the sustained recovery and improvement of the economy still needs to be consolidated. In the next stage, we must adhere to the general tone of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully and accurately implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, unswervingly manage our own affairs, place greater emphasis on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic cycle, focus on stabilizing employment and the economy to promote high-quality development, and promote sustained and healthy economic development.

At present, the domestic steel market has entered the traditional off-season for demand, and many places have been significantly affected by rainfall, which has significantly restricted the progress of outdoor construction. At the same time, the manufacturing industry has also entered a "stable period" under high temperatures and heavy rains. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic steel output in June may maintain a downward trend. According to Lange Steel Research Center's estimates, the national daily output of crude steel in June may remain at 2.7 million tons, of which the daily output of crude steel from key large and medium-sized steel enterprises may remain at 2.15 million tons. (Lange Steel Research Center, Ge Xin, 15810671409 (WeChat ID same), Please indicate the source when reprinting)