Demand for threaded fasteners remains resilient during the off-season, while the weak supply and demand situation remains unchanged, leading to low steel prices and consolidation.
On the afternoon of June 26th, with the release of new weekly domestic steel inventory and production data, Rebar futures prices rebounded quickly from the early morning low. However, although rebar demand has shown relatively strong resilience during the off-season, the viewpoint of Everbright Futures points out that the overall rebar market is currently relatively cautious, and the situation of weak supply and demand still exists. In the short term, steel prices are likely to continue to consolidate at low levels.
Specifically, My Steel （ Mysteel ）The latest data shows that, as of the week ending June 26, national rebar production increased by 56,600 tons to 2.1784 million tons week-on-week, a year-on-year decrease of 269,200 tons; social inventories decreased by 53,500 tons to 3.634 million tons week-on-week, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1484 million tons; factory inventories increased by 32,800 tons to 1.856 million tons week-on-week, a year-on-year decrease of 207,800 tons; and rebar apparent consumption increased by 7,200 tons to 2.1991 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 158,900 tons.
"Rebar production has increased for the second consecutive week, inventories have continued to decline slightly, and apparent consumption has slightly increased. Rebar demand still shows relatively strong resilience during the off-season." Qiu Yuecheng, director of black research at Everbright Futures, commented.
According to his specific introduction, from the supply side, coke After the fourth round of price reductions, the profits of long-process steel mills have expanded, and coupled with the recent narrowing of the price difference between rebar and other steel products, steel mills have recently increased their enthusiasm for producing rebar, and rebar production has continued to rise from a low level. On the demand side, the recent high temperatures in the north and the rainy season in the south have had a certain impact on construction, and overall terminal demand remains at a low level.
Mysteel monitoring data shows that the average daily transaction volume of building materials nationwide from Monday to Wednesday was 96,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.9%. During the same period, the average daily shipment volume of rebar in Hangzhou market was 33,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.45%, and rebar inventory fell to 633,000 tons.
In addition, data from the General Administration of Customs shows that from January to May 2025, domestic steel billet exports totaled 4.7165 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 305.80%. "The significant increase in steel billet exports has, to a certain extent, eased the pressure on rebar supply." Qiu Yuecheng believes.
In summary, the current rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Inventories have not accumulated during the off-season, and the contradiction in the spot market fundamentals is not obvious. However, overall market expectations are relatively cautious. Based on this, it is expected that the rebar futures market will mainly consolidate at low levels in the short term.
