The Yajiang Project is a "major opportunity" for the transformation and upgrading of the steel industry.
At the great bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, a future super hydropower project will emerge. This is the 'Lower Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Project', abbreviated as the 'Yajiang (Hydropower) Project' or 'Yaxia Project'. The 'Yajiang Project' is not only a 'project of the century' that changes the regional development pattern but also a 'super project' that demonstrates the country's industrial strength." On August 27, China Special steel Zhao Fazhong, Deputy Secretary-General of the Enterprise Association, delivered a report titled "Yajiang Project and New Opportunities for Steel Industry Development—Analysis of Steel and Special Steel Demand" at the 2025 (7th) China High-Speed Steel Application Technology Forum. He deeply interpreted the strategic significance of the Yajiang Project, a 'project of the century,' for China's steel industry, systematically analyzed the characteristics of steel demand and industry development paths, providing guidance for steel enterprises to seize opportunities and meet challenges.
A 'super project' bearing the national strategy
Zhao Fazhong stated: "The Yajiang Project is not only a 'project of the century' that changes the regional development pattern but also a 'super project' that demonstrates the country's industrial strength. It uses steel as its backbone and craftsmanship as its soul, embedding the wisdom and courage of human industrial civilization into every segment of infrastructure. It carries the major mission of ensuring energy security and optimizing resource allocation, and will also write a narrative of our efforts to break through technical barriers and refresh engineering standards."
According to reports, the Yajiang Project, officially launched on July 19, 2025, has a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, a total installed capacity of 55 to 60 million kilowatts, and an average annual power generation of 200 to 300 billion kilowatt-hours (about three times that of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station). It is the largest hydropower infrastructure project in human history. From a strategic value perspective, the project can significantly increase the national proportion of clean energy and support the achievement of the "dual carbon" goals. It will also change the economic pattern of the Tibet region—releasing cheap clean electricity to attract high-energy-consuming industries and forming a regional circular economy model. As a cross-border river development project, it will help China establish the right to formulate cross-border water resource development rules and break the "water hegemony" barrier.
According to relevant forecasts, the total steel consumption of the Yajiang Project is expected to reach 4 to 6 million tons, and if supporting projects are included, it may exceed 8 million tons. This is 10 to 13 times the steel consumption of the Three Gorges Project (590,000 tons). The annual demand is stable at 500,000 to 800,000 tons, with a demand cycle of about 15 years, providing long-term stable market support for the steel industry.
"The Yajiang Project's demand for steel is a dual breakthrough in 'scale' and 'quality,'" Zhao Fazhong explained. In terms of steel demand types, it mainly includes conventional construction materials for core engineering, special steel for power transmission facilities, and special steel for hydropower units.
Conventional construction materials for core engineering mainly include rebar 、 H-beam steel , I-beam steel, medium and heavy plates etc., used for steel reinforcement concrete frameworks, water diversion tunnels, transportation facilities, etc. The demand is the largest, reaching 2.8 to 3.3 million tons.
Special steel for power transmission facilities mainly includes weathering angle steel, galvanized steel plates, etc., used for high-voltage towers. Substation steel structures include equipment supports, frame beams, etc., requiring high-strength and high-precision steel, with a demand of 281,000 tons.
Special steel for hydropower units mainly includes special corrosion-resistant steels such as 06Cr13Ni4Mo, stainless steel 、 silicon steel sheets, structural steel used for turbine runners, generator stators, and rotors. The auxiliary system steel consumption accounts for about 15% of the main body, with special steel demand reaching 270,000 tons.
It is worth noting that steel enterprises in the western region have natural advantages in supplying conventional steel. For example, Baowu Group's Bagang Company, as the largest steel enterprise in Xinjiang, holds over 70% market share in Xinjiang, construction steel accounts for 60%; in the Tibet market, its key engineering section steel holds an 85% market share; relying on the Lanzhou-Xinjiang and Qinghai-Tibet railways, transportation costs are more than 30% lower than those of eastern steel enterprises. The conventional steel demand of the Yajiang Project will further amplify the "local supply" advantage of western steel enterprises and promote the optimized layout of regional capacity.
"The 15-year construction period of the Yajiang Project means that steel demand is not a 'one-time explosion' but is released in phases and with focus, which puts 'flexibility' requirements on steel enterprises' production scheduling and supply chain management," Zhao Fazhong detailed the "time code" of steel demand:
Early stage (2025–2027): Civil construction starts, mainly conventional steel. This stage focuses on dam foundation construction, tunnel excavation, and transportation facility construction. Rebar and I-beam steel demand accounts for 60%; meanwhile, steel demand for construction machinery increases by 12%, with companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG urgently adding steel orders for hydraulic supports; China Railway Construction Heavy Industry requires 25 highland tunnel boring machines, with related orders expected to increase its net profit by 800 million to 1.2 billion yuan.
Mid stage (2028–2030): Main construction, special steel demand surges. As dam concrete pouring peaks, annual demand for medium and heavy plates exceeds 5 million tons; hydropower unit manufacturing enters delivery period, with orders for 70 million kilowatt units from Dongfang Electric and others driving a surge of 150,000 tons in annual silicon steel sheet demand; premium space for high-strength steels like Q500E bridge steel continues to expand. The mid stage is a "critical window" for special steel supply, requiring enterprises to focus on capacity release for medium and heavy plates, stainless steel, and high-strength steel to ensure technical parameters are met.
Late stage (from 2031): Yajiang Project supporting completion, mainly steel for power transmission and transformation. This stage focuses on ultra-high voltage line construction and unit commissioning, with demand for power transmission angle steel and galvanized steel accounting for 10%; the five ultra-high voltage lines supporting the State Grid will add an annual demand of 80,000 tons for oriented silicon steel sheets used in transformers. Although the late-stage demand is smaller in scale, it requires "precise matching," and enterprises need to establish coordination mechanisms with power grid companies to ensure timely supply.
From 'demand-driven' to 'technology-leading'
The Yajiang Project is located on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, at an altitude above 4,000 meters. The special geographical environment places extremely high demands on steel, and ordinary steel cannot meet the project's requirements.
First, there is a high requirement for the low-temperature toughness of the steel. In winter, extreme temperatures can drop below -40°C, and ordinary steel is prone to low-temperature brittle fracture. It must meet a low-temperature impact energy of ≥27J at -20°C, requiring the use of a Ni-Cr-Mo-V microalloying route.
Second, the steel faces strong ultraviolet radiation. High-altitude areas have intense UV radiation, accelerating the aging of steel surface coatings. Galvanized steel requires a zinc layer thickness of ≥85μm and a special protective coating system to enhance UV resistance.
Third, the impact of highly corrosive water quality. The Yarlung Tsangpo River water contains high chloride ion content, is weakly alkaline in pH, and has high dissolved oxygen saturation, accelerating steel corrosion. High-performance materials such as nitrogen-containing duplex stainless steel are required.
Fourth, it faces complex geological conditions. The project crosses multiple active fault zones with high seismic intensity, requiring high steel strength. In geologically active areas, Z-direction steel (resistant to lamellar tearing) is needed, and online quenching and tempering processes must be used to improve performance.
Fifth, there are high-altitude transportation and installation restrictions. Complex terrain limits the weight of single steel structures. The transport capacity of the southern Tibet highway is only 500 tons per day, requiring the use of higher-strength lightweight materials (30% weight reduction) with a welding crack sensitivity index Pcm ≤ 0.30.
Sixth, comprehensive performance requirements are high. The plateau environment's comprehensive demands on steel result in special steels accounting for as much as 40%, far exceeding conventional projects. The improvement in material performance forces enterprises to achieve technological breakthroughs and promote product upgrades.
The main categories of special steels required for the Yajiang project include: the steel reinforcement backbone for the super dam—high-strength hydropower steel; the corrosion-resistant armor for turbine runners—special stainless steel; the magnetic core engine wire for giant generator units—silicon steel sheets; the plateau backbone for ultra-high voltage power grids—weather-resistant angle steel; and the skeletal network for concrete mega dams—high-strength rebar.
"The Yajiang project is not a simple 'steel procurement project,' but an 'accelerator' driving China's steel industry from 'scale expansion' to 'quality and efficiency' transformation," Zhao Fazhong stated clearly in the report.
On one hand, the project drives breakthroughs in special steel technology. For example, Hunan Steel Group developed HY950CF hydropower steel with a yield strength ≥960MPa and impact energy >50J at -40°C, reducing weight by 30% compared to traditional materials, successfully securing the Yajiang project pressure steel pipes. Holding a 70% share (about 150,000 tons); Taiyuan Iron & Steel solved the problem of decreased welding deposition rate at high altitudes for stainless steel, securing an order of 37,000 tons and exclusively supplying all 93 turbine runner steels; Baosteel will supply 140,000 tons of silicon steel to the Yajiang project, with the power generation group’s demand for silicon steel sheets at 233,000 tons. This marks that China's special steel technology has entered the ranks of international advanced levels.
On the other hand, the project promotes coordinated upgrades of the industrial chain. Zhao Fazhong suggested that western steel enterprises leverage the advantage of 'local supply' and the principle of adapting to local conditions to expand production capacity of plateau-adapted steel types and build electric furnace short-process projects; eastern enterprises can establish joint ventures; in western regions, it is recommended to establish a 'Yajiang project dedicated scrap steel recycling system, utilizing the project's green electricity to layout electric furnace short-process capacity, reducing energy consumption and improving resource recycling efficiency.
Seize opportunities, meet challenges, and act quickly.
What should steel enterprises do in response to the challenges and opportunities brought by the project? Zhao Fazhong proposed multi-dimensional suggestions:
First, grasp the technology demonstration platform, using the Yajiang project as a platform to showcase technological strength, test product quality, and cultivate high-end talent, actively participating in the project to enhance brand and technological strength.
Second, optimize supply chain strategy, establish a dedicated supply chain system for the Yajiang project, achieve full-process quality control from raw materials to finished steel products, and ensure the quality of special steels.
Third, solidify technological innovation and R&D efforts, develop high-strength, corrosion-resistant special steels tailored to the Yajiang project's special requirements, improving product performance and quality stability.
Fourth, carry out strategic cooperation and market positioning, establish cooperative relationships with Yajiang Group and related units, provide customized solutions based on their needs, and differentiate market positioning.
"The Yajiang project is a century project, a mega project, and a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Are steel enterprises ready?" Zhao Fazhong asked in the report. "Steel enterprises should have a forward-looking awareness and plan ahead, such as establishing a leadership group and working group for steel used in the Yajiang project, deeply analyzing the strategic opportunities the project brings to steel enterprises, and making the development and supply of steel for the Yajiang project an important R&D direction and a key lever for transformation and upgrading; steel enterprises should take the initiative to connect with the project owner—China Yajiang Group—as well as a batch of construction contractors like China Power Construction, equipment suppliers like Dongfang Electric, power operators like Datang Group, and material suppliers like Tibet Tianlu."
When discussing the Special Steel Association seizing the major opportunity of the Yajiang project to promote the transformation and development of the special steel industry, Zhao Fazhong said that the China Special Steel Enterprises Association attaches great importance to the Yajiang project, based on the national strategic overall situation, with association leaders personally studying and deploying. The Special Steel Association will take on the responsibility and mission proactively, lead the integration of the entire special steel industry chain resources, gather industrial synergy, and provide precise, high-quality industrial support and service guarantees for this national key project, escorting the implementation and effectiveness of the national strategy with the strength of the special steel industry.
Zhao Fazhong emphasized: "The steel backbone of the Yajiang project is waiting for us to perfect it with more advanced technology and guard it with a more rigorous attitude. Every refinement of the steel standards is to build a solid safety line for this century project; every breakthrough in technical difficulties accumulates momentum for the upgrade of Chinese industry." He further pointed out that the pursuit of quality must be integrated into every link, and the dedication to innovation must be embedded in every practice, so that with solid actions, the 'steel backbone' of the Yajiang project stands straighter and steadier, jointly writing this hard-core answer sheet belonging to Chinese industry and especially to us steel workers. For the steel industry, the Yajiang project is also a major opportunity for transformation and upgrading.
