2025-08-29
Supply and demand game reappears, steel market weak and volatile
In the 35th week of 2025 (2025.8.25-8.29), the Lange Steel National Absolute Price Index was 3590 yuan, down 0.1% from last week and up 1.6% year-on-year; among them, the Lange Steel Long Products Absolute Price Index was 3382 yuan, down 0.1% from last week and down 1.2% year-on-year; the Lange Steel Section Products Absolute Price Index was 3553 yuan, down 0.5% from last week and up 0.3% year-on-year; the Lange Steel Plate Products Absolute Price Index was 3711 yuan, up 0.1% from last week and up 4.9% year-on-year; the Lange Steel Pipe Products Absolute Price Index was 4056 yuan, down 0.3% from last week and down 0.5% year-on-year.
Figure 1 Lange Steel Price Index Trend Chart
Currently, China's economic operation still faces many unstable and uncertain external factors, residents' consumption capacity and confidence need further improvement, enterprises face intensified competition and declining investment returns risks and challenges; focus on key areas to plan and reserve a batch of key projects needed for development, feasible for localities, and expected by the public, especially projects in the livelihood sector; also firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, further strengthen the internal circulation, optimize the external circulation, and promote the dual circulation.
From the black commodity futures market perspective, most black commodities closed lower, with the main iron ore slightly up. The main rebar 2601 contract closed at 3160, down 22 points, with open interest at 1.429 million lots, an increase of over 170,000 lots. As the new main contract, short funds kept exerting pressure in the afternoon, forming a downward trend. From the weekly chart, it fell 35 points from last week's closing price, with a settlement price of 3191, down 23 points for the week. Although the decline is not large, the center of gravity has shifted downward. The latest open interest is 1.429 million lots, an increase of 491,000 lots from last Friday. The weekly chart has fallen for two consecutive weeks without showing signs of stabilization, preventing further decline and bottom probing. Next week, pay attention to defending 3152 on the downside, with support after the drop around 3117.
From the steel spot market perspective, supply side: due to the impact of product profitability, steel mill capacity release continues to weaken, molten iron output slightly decreased, but product output varies. Demand side: due to the transition from off-season to peak season, market merchants' stocking demand gradually strengthens, and market transactions also begin to gradually recover. Cost side: due to a slight rise in iron ore prices, stable and rising scrap prices, and a slight increase in coke prices, production cost support has shifted from weak to strong. Therefore, the Lange Steel Research Center expects that under the influence of many external uncertainties, steady economic operation with progress, gradual relaxation of production restriction policies, continued weakening of supply release, gradual recovery of market transactions, and strengthened cost support, the domestic steel market may fluctuate weakly next week (2025.9.1-9.5).
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