"Golden September" is drawing to a close, as "Silver October" swiftly follows. After experiencing the month of September Steel Market After a market trend that didn’t clearly reflect peak-season characteristics, steel traders seem to be even more eagerly anticipating the upcoming "Golden October."
"Golden September" Steel Market Is No Longer "Golden"
Long-term operation Architectural steel Liang Taigeng, General Manager of Shanghai Huallei Enterprise Development Co., Ltd., said in an interview with China Metallurgical News: "The market situation in September was quite complex, with multiple factors intricately intertwined. As we entered the second half of September, demand for terminal inventory preparation surged ahead of the National Day holiday." Steel prices "Starting to stabilize."
Li Zhongshuang, General Manager of Shanghai Ruikun Metal Materials Co., Ltd., frankly told a reporter from China Metallurgical News that the steel market in September, despite being traditionally the "peak season," failed to show the expected robust demand. Instead, the market fundamentals clearly pointed to an oversupply situation, which has become one of the main reasons why steel prices tend to fall rather than rise.
Many steel traders feel that this year’s “Golden September” has seen overall weaker steel demand, sluggish market activity, and volatile steel prices—clearly falling short of expectations for the traditionally strong peak season. In fact, the steel market entered this year’s “Golden September” amid a downward trend. Looking back at the first trading day of September, major steel prices in the Shanghai region experienced mixed movements, with declines ranging from 10 to 30 yuan per ton. The lackluster start to “Golden September” persisted for nearly a week, leaving the market in a subdued mood.
Li Zhongshuang introduced that during the first trading week of "Golden September," the price of hot-rolled Q235B steel in the Shanghai region dropped by 30 yuan per ton, while the price of hot-rolled SPHC steel fell by 80 yuan per ton. Cold Rolling Coil plate prices The price dropped by 30 yuan per ton. As we entered the second week of September, the steel market continued to show no significant improvement, with prices of several mainstream products falling further by 10–20 yuan per ton. It wasn’t until mid-September that steel prices finally stabilized and began to rebound. By the third week of September, key steel prices in the Shanghai region rose by 10–40 yuan per ton compared to the previous week. As late September approached and pre-National Day stocking demand started to pick up, the steel market gradually showed signs of recovery.
Regarding the volatile and declining trend in the "Golden September" steel market, Li Zhongshuang believes the primary reason is oversupply. Whether looking at retail sales data for the national passenger car market compiled by the Joint Council for Passenger Car Market Information, or examining the three major white appliance production schedules released by industry organizations, both the automotive and home appliance sectors have seen a drop in production and sales volumes—directly impacting the demand for cold-rolled steel and other related products. Hot Rolling Rolled steel demand is weakening.
Meanwhile, the supply side continues to expand, with an increasing number of resources being introduced into the market, leading to a rise in steel inventories held by society. According to statistics, in early September, key steel enterprises surveyed had cumulatively produced 20.87 million tons of crude steel, averaging 2.087 million tons per day—a 7.2% increase compared to the previous ten-day period. By mid-September, however, production had slightly declined to 20.73 million tons, with an average daily output of 2.073 million tons, marking a 0.6% drop from the prior ten-day period. As of September 19, the total social inventory of steel across 35 major national markets stood at 11.1082 million tons, up 61,000 tons—or 0.55%—from the previous week.
"Currently, steel traders have relatively ample spot resources, leading to increased sales pressure. Some merchants, in their bid to move inventory, have opted for discounted sales, resulting in a noticeable but subtle decline in steel prices—and ultimately triggering volatile downward swings in steel market prices," said Li Zhongshuang.
"Silver October" Steel prices There is a possibility of a rebound.
Most steel traders believe that, as October begins, the overall room for steel prices to fall is limited, and a temporary rebound is expected. Liang Taigeng predicts that steel prices during "Silver October" will likely first stabilize before staging a recovery.
Li Zhongshuang stated that as we enter October, weather factors such as high temperatures and frequent rainfall are gradually having less impact on construction activities at downstream sites, marking the start of the optimal period for projects to kick off and accelerate progress in the second half of the year. This trend is indirectly confirmed by recent groundbreaking ceremonies held across multiple regions nationwide for major infrastructure projects. For instance, on September 17, construction officially began on Phase III of the Guang'ao Port Area in Shantou Port, a key project under the 102 major initiatives outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan. The project, with a total investment of approximately 11.4 billion yuan, includes the development of container berths, general-purpose berths, wind-power berths, and an associated railway terminal for port logistics. Meanwhile, the Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower Station Project—valued at around 1.2 trillion yuan—and the new Sichuan-Tibet Railway Project, with an estimated investment of about 400 billion yuan, have both fully entered the construction phase. These massive undertakings are expected to reach a construction peak in October, potentially driving steel demand to levels exceeding 10 million tons. On September 24, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced plans to commence renovation work on 25,000 older urban residential communities nationwide by 2025. Based on this forecast, steel traders anticipate that construction activities across various regions will pick up pace in October, boosting steel demand and, in turn, helping steel prices rebound.
Li Zhongshuang believes that the current "anti-involution" policies are already showing positive effects, helping to ease the supply-demand imbalance in the steel market. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with several other departments, jointly issued the "Work Plan for Steadily Boosting Growth in the Steel Industry (2025–2026)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), which outlines that from 2025 to 2026, the added value of the steel industry will grow by about 4% annually. On the supply side, the Plan calls for precise control over production capacity and output, promotes tiered and categorized management of steel enterprises, strengthens industry oversight, and fosters a natural selection process that rewards the strong while weeding out the weak. It also emphasizes enhancing the ability to supply high-end products, driving quality upgrades in bulk materials, ensuring stable supplies of raw fuels, and ultimately boosting effective supply capacity. Meanwhile, on the demand side, the Plan focuses on three key areas—deepening cooperation in priority sectors, expanding applications in these sectors, and nurturing supply-chain service platforms—to unlock new opportunities for steel usage, stabilize the steel market, and unleash its full consumption potential. Steel traders believe that the implementation of this Plan will help optimize the market’s supply-and-demand dynamics, paving the way for a higher-quality balance between supply and demand in the steel industry.
Overall, steel traders anticipate that as October approaches, the steel market will likely see a scenario characterized by "moderate improvement in demand, rational control of supply, and fluctuating price increases." Specifically, during the first and middle parts of October, steel prices may rebound slightly as demand picks up. However, toward the latter half of October, with shifts in the supply-demand dynamics, there remains a possibility of price fluctuations—potentially even a mild decline—but the overall drop is expected to remain limited.
