Experts say the city-October 30

My steel:Supply and demand data in the past two weeks to maintain negative performance, the overall apparent consumption level is also relatively high since July, in which speculative demand and just demand consumption accounted for little difference. On the supply side, although enterprises have losses, but through the variety of deployment, can minimize the magnitude of losses, so the overall willingness to reduce production is limited, but the space for increasing production is also relatively limited due to losses, policies, demand and other factors, so the short-term change in the level of supply is not large. From the recent market performance, macro-positive to stimulate market confidence, demand performance is not as weak as expected, superimposed cost support, this week's steel prices or strong shock expectations.

The Steel House:The current domestic steel market supply and demand fundamentals are still relatively weak, but the positive factors gradually began to increase. First, the state issued 1 trillion government bonds, special bonds issued in advance to stimulate the market, the market mentality improved. The disadvantage lies in the lack of market confidence, the cautious operation of businesses, still to reduce inventory, steel mills to reduce production efforts are not strong. It is expected that the domestic steel market prices will be a slight rebound in the main this week.

Lange:In recent years, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Northeast, Henan and other places have suffered heavy rains and floods, and various extreme natural disasters have occurred frequently, exposing that my country still has many shortcomings in the construction of infrastructure projects such as flood control and disaster relief and emergency response. It is urgent to increase investment. On October 24, the sixth meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress voted and passed the resolution of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on approving the State Council's additional issuance of national debt and the 2023 central budget adjustment plan. The national debt of 1000 billion yuan, all the additional national debt issued are arranged to local governments through transfer payment methods, focusing on supporting post-disaster recovery and reconstruction and making up for the shortcomings of disaster prevention, mitigation and relief, and relief, and overall improving my country's ability to resist natural disasters. In the short term, the domestic steel market will show a pattern of "increasing geopolitical conflicts, maintaining a period of high interest rates in Europe and the United States, continuous recovery of the domestic economy, continuous consolidation of policy benefits, possible interruption of the production reduction process, and release of rush demand. From the supply side, due to the joint impact of the increasing expectations of favorable policies and environmental restrictions in the Beijing region, the process of production reduction in steel mills may be repeated, making the supply side of the contraction may reignite the war. From the demand side, there is a phenomenon of rush work in some regions, but due to the sudden drop of "trillion national debt", the strong expectation of policy may bring additional steel demand, but the effect of demand driving at this stage will be limited. From the cost side, iron ore prices steadily decline, scrap prices shock decline, coke open to raise down, making the cost support there is a weakening trend. According to the Lange Steel Weekly Price Forecast Model, this week (2023.10.30-11.3) the domestic steel market will be under the influence of favorable policies, supply pressure recovery, rush demand release, cost support weakening and other factors, showing a volatile market.

Tang and Song:This week the market is in the traditional demand season, terminal procurement or will continue to remain stable. With the improvement of market pessimism, market confidence has increased, and the demand for trade speculation may increase. In addition, the current steel price is at a low level, and the overall demand may be stable. From the supply side, the firm rise in iron ore prices, so that steel enterprises continue to expand losses, long-process steel enterprises blast furnace reduction, shutdown or increase, pig iron production or slightly reduced. The steel market may continue to show a bistable supply and demand situation. The main varieties of social inventory, total inventory or a small increase or decrease. With the recent steel social library for three consecutive weeks of decline, steel demand performance to good, the market negative feedback logic interruption, the market price there is a certain repair space. However, the macro policies issued by the state are difficult to be reflected in the real market in the short term, and the role of policies, news and other factors in supporting the rise of the market is gradually weakening. In addition, the reduction degree of the actual supply side slows down, or fails to reach the degree expected by the market, the worry that the market supply exceeds the demand in the later stage appears again, and the pressure of steel price rise increases. Black period in stock prices or now fluctuate slightly stronger. The snail is concerned about the pressure near the 3750/3780/3830.

Medium steel mesh:Last week's summary: 1, the country's major market varieties stable strong. Rebar rose 31 yuan/ton, hot rolled plate rose 26 yuan/ton, general plate fell 11 yuan/ton, strip steel rose 24 yuan/ton, welded pipe rose 7 yuan/ton. 2. In terms of futures, rebar rose 114 yuan to 3724, hot coil rose 115 yuan to 3844, coke rose 146 yuan to 2462.5, and iron ore rose 50.5 yuan to 889.5.

Market analysis: 1, macro level: the State Council in advance issued some of the new local government debt limit decision, the central government will issue additional government bonds in the fourth quarter of 1000 billion yuan, is expected to raise the deficit rate from 3% to about 38%, the policy is warm. 2, supply side: steel mills profit rate decreased by 2.6 to 16.45 percent month-on-month, blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.15 to 82.49 percent month-on-month, the average daily iron rose 2900 tons to 2.4273 million tons month-on-month, steel mills take the initiative to reduce production awareness is not strong. 3, demand end, thread/hot roll of the peak season demand performance is stable, demand short-term toughness is still in. Threads quickly go to the library, and hot rolls continue to go. From a seasonal point of view, as the temperature drops, steel demand enters the off-season characteristics. 4, the cost side: iron water does not fall but increases, the total inventory of iron ore in the calendar year low level. Coke in stock the first round of the drop in the way, but the iron production cut repeatedly, coke futures prices rose slightly, the cost support is still strong. 5, technical analysis: steel prices break through the shock range of strong upward, weekly line closed Dayang line, daily line level four Lianyang, increase warehouse volume upward, medium-term trend is strong, below the 3650 support is strong, this week pay attention to 3750-3800. Pressure: 3788, support: 3650.

This week's prediction: the magnitude of the shock is 20-40 yuan.

Decision-making recommendations: strong expectations of the market stack to strengthen cost support, to promote the material to continue to rise. We keep our target for threaded 2401 contracts 3750-3800 unchanged for the time being. Follow-up continuous observation of national policy trends. Traders who have replenished their stocks can cash in a portion of their profits, and the remaining stocks continue to make greater profits. This position to go to a large number of replenishment, cost-effective is not very appropriate, just need to get the goods can be, steady operation.

youfa group han weidong:The haze weather is coming. Tangshan, Handan, etc. have started the production restriction mode. From the second half of last year to this year, the market has been in a state of shock. The average price of strip steel in the second half of last year was 3890 yuan, 3960 yuan in the first half of this year, and 3810 yuan in the second half of this year to October. The average monthly prices of the three stages are 3700, 3670 and 3700 yuan. The range of volatility is not large and there are not many opportunities for speculation. It is worth noting that the price of iron ore in October this year was nearly 40 US dollars higher than that of the same period last year, and the RMB exchange rate has depreciated sharply, indicating that the profitability of steel mills has dropped sharply and many enterprises have suffered serious losses. The price of coal and coke is at an all-time high. At present, it is cost support, which is conducive to price increases. In the long run, once the price of raw materials falls, there is a possibility that the median price will fall. The current strategy should be to operate steadily. If the price rises sharply, reduce the inventory and meet the off-season. If the price falls and falls near the previous low, it can be stored in winter. Whether to store in winter this year depends on whether the price is low, not whether there are good expectations. Peace of mind, tea!