Experts say the city-October 23

My steel:On the supply side, due to the extension of the loss cycle and the high cost pressure, the willingness of enterprises to raise production is suppressed, but the reduction of iron and water is lower than expected, mainly because enterprises adjust the variety structure by means of variety conversion, thus making the supply of finished materials stand out. In addition, from the perspective of inventory and demand, although the overall performance of the current demand is lower than expected, but in the early stage, there is still some support for the purchasing sentiment, so the inventory continues to be de-stocked. In the short term, due to the impact of the domestic and foreign environment, the conflict between expectations and reality is obvious, and the market sentiment is cautious. Therefore, the overall price increase momentum is limited, and the in stock price drop continues to perform in a narrow range.

The Steel House:At present, the domestic steel market is generally weak in supply and demand, but the performance of each variety is slightly different. First, the domestic steel output is still relatively high. In September, the average daily steel output was 3.927 million tons, up 4.5 from the previous month. Recently, the blast furnace has dropped somewhat but not by much. In terms of varieties, rebar and wire rod have declined year on year, hot rolled coil has continued to grow rapidly, and the supply pressure is greater. Second, downstream demand is still weak. In September, investment, industrial production and consumption and other major indicators rebounded month on month, but the rebound, both are lower than the level of the same month last year, from the survey turnover, rebar is better than plate; Third, the cost of steel is running at a high level but the support is weakened. Recently, the third round of coke price increase steel mills are generally not accepted. Although the port inventory is at a low level in nearly 7 years, there is also some downward pressure under the general loss of steel mills. Overall, it is expected that the domestic steel market price volatility this week, construction steel slightly stronger than the plate.

Lange:Since the beginning of this year, in the face of a complex and severe international environment, China has accurately and effectively implemented macro-policy regulation and control, focusing on expanding domestic demand, boosting confidence and preventing risks. The national economy has continued to recover and improve, the production supply has increased steadily, the market demand has continued to expand, the quality of development has been steadily improved, and the positive factors have accumulated, it is necessary to expand effective domestic demand, focus on stimulating the vitality of business entities, grasp the effective implementation of policies that have been introduced, continue to promote the continuous enhancement of endogenous power, continue to improve social expectations, continue to resolve hidden risks, and further consolidate the foundation for economic recovery. In the short term, the domestic steel market will show "geopolitical conflicts intensified, interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States are expected to be suspended, the domestic economy continues to recover, the accumulation of positive factors to increase, the good foundation still needs to be consolidated, the process of production reduction again waves, rush demand is expected to release" pattern. From the supply side, steel mills have entered the process of reducing production due to losses, but there are also waves in the process, and there may be a problem of "big thunder and little rain. From the demand side, "Silver Ten" is still the traditional peak season for construction, and the phenomenon of project projects rushing to work in some areas has stimulated the release of terminal demand, but there are also obvious differences in the release intensity between different regions. From the cost side, iron ore prices fluctuated slightly, scrap prices fell steadily, coke prices remained stable, making cost support to maintain a certain degree of toughness. According to the Lange Steel Weekly Price Forecast Model, this week (2023.10.23-10.27) the domestic steel market will show a weakening and volatile market under the combined influence of factors such as sustained economic recovery, renewed production cuts, release of rush demand, and cost resilience support.

Tang and Song:This week, the north gradually entered the late autumn, the south temperature gradually turned cool, construction is in a favorable period, but the demand growth space is limited, terminal procurement will remain stable. From the supply side, long-process steel enterprises blast furnace reduction, shutdown or increase, pig iron production continues to decrease. The steel market or the overall situation of supply and demand reduction is stable. Major varieties of social inventory, total inventory or a small decline. However, with some regional steel enterprises production line maintenance, production reduction increased, the supply side showed a trend reduction, the market supply is greater than demand concerns gradually improved. Although there is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals of the steel market at present, the steel inventory continues to decrease, and the reality and expectation of production reduction on the supply side increase, the geographical situation drives capital to avoid risks, and the overall speculative mood is cautious. With the decrease and suspension of steel enterprises, there is room for decline in the prices of ore and coke, or it will definitely drag down the steel prices. In addition, the market is still worried about the high supply in the future off-season, and supply, short-term steel prices are expected to continue to operate under pressure. Period snail focus on 3590 support after the break to see 3550/3500, above the focus on 3650 pressure.

Medium steel mesh:Last week's summary: 1, the country's major market varieties trend differentiation, (building materials are strong, the plate is weak). Rebar rose by 23 yuan/ton, hot rolled coil fell by 13 yuan/ton, general plate fell by 25 yuan/ton, strip steel fell by 2 yuan/ton, and welded pipe fell by 9 yuan/ton. 2. In terms of futures, rebar fell 10 yuan to close 3610, hot coil rose 2 yuan to close 3729, coke fell 35.5 yuan to close 2316.5, and iron ore fell 3 yuan to close 839.

Market analysis: 1. At the policy level, seven provincial capitals have completely lifted purchase restrictions, the central bank's LRP medium-and long-term interest rates remain unchanged, and the provinces and cities of special refinancing bonds have expanded. 2, supply side: blast furnace operating rate of 82.34 percent, the weekly increase of 0.14 percent, iron production fell back to 2.42 million tons, the output of the five major materials decreased month-on-month, supply pressure slowed down. 3, the demand side, last week, the total demand for steel varieties rose more than 400000 tons to 9.6728 million tons, a larger increase, slightly more than market expectations, but the "Silver Ten" peak season demand is still low year-on-year, sustainability still needs to be observed. 4, the cost end: with the iron fall, iron ore prices upward pressure. Coal mine supply-side speculation has come to an end, and costs are under downward pressure. 5. Technical analysis: Generally, it is in the oscillation range (3590-3670). The weekly line is slightly shaded, and the daily line level rebounds weakly. Follow-up attention to the 3590 position. Once the position is broken, the lower space will continue to open. At present, it is in the form of shock. Pressure: 3660, support: 3590.

This week's forecast: shock weakness range 20-40 yuan.

Decision advice: although the current macro policy is warm, but the macro future is expected to be weak. On the industrial side, as the iron falls back, the cost side is not pushing enough. The steel market has the risk of continuing negative feedback. Our judgment on October is still "grinding bottom", and the time for a substantial upward trend has not yet come. It is recommended that steel traders, cautious response to the main. Keep inventory running low, while not chasing up and down the market.

youfa group han weidong:Crude steel production in September was announced to be very low. Due to the large deviation from the blast furnace operating rate, the market chose not to believe it. Without administrative production restrictions and environmental protection production restrictions, the situation of oversupply is difficult to solve. Due to the recent good weather, there has been no environmental production restrictions. With the gradual advent of the off-season, market confidence is very low. However, the losses of steel mills are real and increasing. This kind of warm water boiled frog-like losses are more harmful, because this kind of loss leads to insufficient production reduction and a long time. * The situation at home and abroad is too complex, prone to systemic risks outside the industry, or steady operation! Fortunately, it is not in the high price area now. In the current season, the temperature is low, so it is suitable for a pot of hot tea to warm the body.