Experts say the city-September 25

My steel:At present, driven by the improvement in demand and the limited implementation of peace control, the willingness of enterprises to reduce production is obviously limited, so the overall supply level significantly rebounded month-on-month. From the perspective of inventory and demand performance, although the transaction data performed poorly, from the perspective of the rebound in the proportion of direct supply of enterprises, the performance of terminal demand has improved, which has led to the continuation of inventory month-on-month. On the whole, this week is a small long holiday after a trading week, superimposed on the macro-positive support, market demand performance and sentiment will maintain a preferred state, and thus support the in stock price volatility strong operation.

The Steel House:At present, the main problem facing the domestic steel market is that the output of steel mills is still at a high level, and the policy of reducing crude steel has not yet been substantially implemented. China Steel Association statistics of the first half of the key steel enterprises crude steel average daily 2.159 million tons, an increase of 5.5 percent month-on-month, steel home website survey of the blast furnace operating rate is basically about 91% of the high fluctuations. From the recent market point of view, after the first round of coke rise, the profit space of steel mills is reduced, and the cost support is strong; near the National Day holiday, there is a certain demand for storage downstream, and the overall steel inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the domestic steel market prices this week will be dominated by a small shock.

Lange:At present, the international situation is complex and grim. Both the United States and Britain have suspended the process of raising interest rates. At the same time, the domestic LPR is also "standing still". The government level also continues to implement the policy "combination fist" to effectively stabilize growth, improve confidence and prevent risks, continuously consolidate the momentum of China's economic recovery, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity, from increasing financial support for stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment to facilitating free cross-border investment by foreign investors, from the sustainable development of the transportation industry to accelerating the promotion of new industrialization, from accelerating the development of advanced manufacturing to promoting the promotion and application of major technology and equipment, from accelerating the construction of a modern high-quality comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network to the special action plan for clearing up overdue corporate accounts. With the superposition of stock policy and incremental policy, the policy effect is accumulating and the positive factors are increasing. In the short term, the domestic steel market will present a "complex and severe external environment, policy effects superimposed force, stock demand is less than expected, terminal demand is expected to unfold" pattern. From the supply side, due to the fall of the steel market and the strength of raw material prices again, the willingness of steel mills to release production capacity has weakened slightly, and the short-term supply side will show a slight decline. From the demand side, with the improvement of climate conditions, the superimposed double festival is approaching, the market's stock demand has increased, but it is not as good as market expectations, and the terminal demand is also tepid. From the cost side, iron ore prices slightly volatile, scrap prices shock consolidation, coke prices rise and fall, making the cost support significantly enhanced. According to the Lange Steel Weekly Price Forecast Model, this week (2023.9.25-9.28) the domestic steel market will be under the combined influence of favorable policies, declining supply, insufficient demand, cost support and other factors, showing a volatile and weak market.

Tang and Song:This week, although steel demand is in the traditional "Golden Nine" peak season, terminal demand is growing steadily, and some traders still have a demand for replenishment. However, with the end of the "double festival" terminal user reserve and the approaching holiday, the market trade volume may weaken, especially the recent fall in the futures market, the increase in market uncertainty after the holiday, the increase in market pessimism, the decrease in traders' willingness to take the initiative to stock, and the actual demand performance may still be difficult to meet expectations, overall demand or performance peak season is not strong. From the supply side, at present, most steel enterprises narrow profits, long-process steel enterprises blast furnace pig iron production or increment is limited. Major varieties of social inventory, total inventory or small increase, decline. At present, the steel production line production power is insufficient, the willingness to reduce production growth, the actual supply of market resources or a reduction, but with the arrival of the 10.1 holiday, the stage terminal demand reduction is expected to increase, the steel market supply is greater than the need for concerns continue, the market price of a significant upward lack of support. At the same time, in the autumn and winter environmental protection production restrictions, "level control" policy expectations and high cost support, market pessimism has eased, business confidence rebounded. In particular, at present, there is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals of the steel market, steel inventories continue to reduce, the supply side of the gradual reduction, steel enterprises profits fell, ore coke prices are strong, steel prices continue to decline in the huge resistance. Black period in stock price or performance shock adjustment. Period snail low focus on 3730 support, above the 3850 pressure.

Medium steel mesh:Last week's summary: 1, the country's major markets are mixed, rebar rose 9 yuan/ton, hot-rolled coil fell 34 yuan/ton, general plate fell 25 yuan/ton, strip steel fell 26 yuan/ton, welded pipe fell 5 yuan/ton. 2. In terms of futures, rebar fell to 3779 in 45 yuan, hot coil fell to 3863 in 29 yuan, coke rose to 2512 in 30.5 yuan, and iron ore fell to 871.5 in 7.5 yuan.

Market analysis: 1, policy level, active fiscal force to improve efficiency, real estate tax legislation temporarily suspended, macro data CPI, PPI,PMI and other month-on-month rebound, economic recovery is getting stronger. 2, supply side: blast furnace operating rate of 84.47 percent, the weekly increase of 0.4 percent, iron production remained high, the five major material production rebounded month-on-month, supply pressure is not reduced. 3, the demand side, the five major material apparent demand moderate increase, but the construction just demand is still less than expected, while excavator production continues to decline. 4, supply side: coal mine security is still tight, but the exchange began to coking coal futures began to limit positions, the cost side of the speculation gradually cooled. 5. Technical analysis: The lower 3720-3750 is an important support interval. There is no further downward movement. The price has reached the position of the daily level 60 moving average again. This is also the third time to test this area. At present, the support is relatively strong. Pressure: 3820. Support: 3750.

This week's forecast: a small increase of 20-40 yuan.

Decision recommendation: This week faces a double section, upstream and downstream replenishment is nearing the end. At the same time, the market capital speculation also began to cool down, the overall probability of a sharp rise or fall is not large. Steel prices are still operating within the concussion range, and the space for operation is getting smaller and smaller. It is recommended to watch more and move less. If there is a chance to rebound this week, you can reduce the amount of cash in part of the profit.

youfa group han weidong:The Ministry of Ecology and Environment's "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas, Fenwei Plain 2023-2024 Autumn and Winter Air Pollution Comprehensive Control Action Plan" (draft for comments) is * near * big news, just because "the wolf is coming" heard too much, did not cause market fluctuations. The big change in this plan is that the time has changed from four months to half a year now. According to the amount of production restrictions in autumn and winter in the past and the increase of two months, the total amount of production restrictions is expected to exceed 40 million tons. The variable is the amount of heavy pollution weather in autumn and winter this year and next spring. After the implementation of this policy, it will greatly reduce the pressure on steel supply in the past half a year, and at the same time, the supply of raw materials will be relaxed, and the profits of steel mills will be greatly improved. Now my heart is much more at ease, drink tea! In the future, watch the weather forecast more. When the first heavy pollution weather comes, the market will wake up.