Experts say the city-October 2

My steel:During the small and long holidays, production enterprises are basically in normal operation, a small number of enterprises reduce production/maintenance, while the market and terminals are closed for a short period of time, and the power of resource consumption is obviously weakened, thus there will be regular accumulation of warehouses. And in the post-holiday transport conditions after the recovery of resources have been put into storage, according to the law of previous years, or about 2 weeks of continuous accumulation of storage, thus making the supply and demand structure of the weak performance, weekly consumption decline. From the macro performance point of view, foreign Fed interest rate hike is expected to increase, pressure on commodity prices, while the domestic central bank meeting to increase macro efforts, but the short-term effect is limited. On the whole, the seasonal accumulation of small long holidays and weak demand, making the market stage pessimism, superimposed on the macro boost limited and disk pressure, so the overall steel price performance after the festival is likely to be weak.

The Steel House:Last week was the week before and after the National Day holiday. The domestic steel market price mainly fell slightly. It is understood that the demand for terminal storage before the holiday is not obvious, and merchants are more cautious in operation. From the recent market, the slow recovery of downstream demand and steel mills to start high operation is still the main factor affecting the steel market, the National Day holiday during the steel accumulation accelerated, after the market has a certain pressure, especially the current plate production growth faster, the accumulation of pressure may be greater. The favorable factor is that the price of coke has risen for two consecutive rounds, iron ore is generally running at a high level and the inventory of port mines is at a low level, and the cost of steel is strongly supported. There is not much reserve before the terminal festival, and there is a demand for replenishment after the festival. Is expected after the National Day domestic steel market prices are expected to usher in a red. Whether it can be sustained depends on whether the policy of reducing crude steel is implemented, focusing on the production of steel mills and the change of steel inventory.

Lange:At present, the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, international economic, trade and investment are slowing down, global regional inflation is still high, and interest rates in developed countries remain high; the domestic economy continues to recover, but it still faces challenges such as insufficient demand, and it is necessary to continue to increase macro policies Control efforts, implement a prudent monetary policy accurately and effectively, do a good job in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, focus on expanding domestic demand to boost confidence, and increase the implementation of monetary policies that have been introduced; strengthen the guiding role of government investment and policy incentives to effectively stimulate private investment; continue to increase support for key areas and weak links of the national economy such as green development, technological innovation, and infrastructure construction, and guide financial institutions to increase medium and long-term manufacturing loans; Implement differentiated housing credit policies precisely according to urban policies, support rigid and improved housing demand, and promote the reduction of the stock of first home loan interest rates to achieve results; we will increase financial support for the construction of public infrastructure, the transformation of villages in cities, and the construction of indemnificatory housing. In the short term, the domestic steel market will present a "complex and severe external environment, increase counter-cyclical control efforts, speed up the policy landing effect, pre-holiday stocking reproduction of small peaks, terminal demand gradually released" pattern. From the supply side, due to the shock decline in the steel market and the strong shock of raw material prices, the willingness of steel mills to release production capacity has weakened slightly, and the short-term supply side will show a slight decline. From the demand side, some merchants are actively preparing goods before the festival, and the market reproduces small quantities of goods. With the arrival of the "Silver Ten" peak season, the construction progress of the project will be accelerated, some areas may be rushed, and the terminal demand will also be released. From the cost side, the price of iron ore rose steadily, the price of scrap steel fell steadily, and the price of coke rose and fell in the second round, making the cost support stable and strong. According to the Lange steel weekly price forecast model, after the holiday (2023.10.7-10.13) the domestic steel market will be in the policy landing effect, supply slow decline, demand release expectations, cost support and other factors under the combined influence of the combined impact of the market, showing a volatile pull up.

Tang and Song:This week into the middle of September, steel demand release into the traditional growth period, the overall steel demand or continue to pick up, but from last week's demand market performance, the actual demand is still difficult to reach the market expectations. From the supply side, long-process steel enterprises blast furnace pig iron production or incremental limited. The steel market basically maintained a steady supply and demand increase, demand growth or limited. With the supply side of steel enterprises stable, demand gradually increased, the main varieties of social inventory, total inventory will continue to decrease slightly. Although the recent high-level to strengthen the iron ore market supervision, cost support slightly weakened concerns rose. But the dollar continues to rise, and the domestic iron remains high, it is expected that short-term iron ore downward space or limited, steel cost support is still in place. Considering the macro-favorable policy or will continue, steel demand there is a certain toughness, steel prices do not have too much bubble squeeze, is expected to short-term downward space is limited, shock adjustment operation mainly. Below the period snail, pay attention to the support near the 3680.

youfa group han weidong:There have been important changes in the market. One is that the price of strip steel has returned to more than 3700, which is close to the low monthly average price of 3700 yuan in the second half of last year and 3670 yuan in this year. The price has entered a low-risk area. The second is that the original profitable hot coil and strip steel began to lose money, while the original loss-making building materials and billets increased the loss, which will lead to an increase in the independent production reduction of steel mills. The third is after the National Day, the autumn and winter season production restrictions began, the late supply pressure weakened. On the whole, the market risk is relatively small. Don't worry about the holidays. If there is a big drop, treat it as an opportunity. I wish everyone a happy Mid-Autumn Festival! Happy National Day! Study how to get together for tea during the festival!