Experts say the city-August 5

My steel:On the supply side, 8.4406 million tons of large steel varieties were supplied on Friday, down 314200 tons, or 3.59 percent, from the previous week. Long-process contribution is mainly reduced (-187000 tons), especially the thread production decline is the most obvious, down 8.7 percent, mainly affected by the conversion of old and new national standards; on Friday, the total inventory of large steel was 17.4741 million tons, down 104500 tons on a weekly basis, a decrease of 0.60 percent. On Friday, the total inventory of large varieties decreased, the factory warehouse decreased by 31000 tons, a decrease of 0.64 percent, and the social warehouse decreased by 73500 tons, a decrease of 0.58 percent. On the consumption side, the weekly consumption of large varieties on Friday was 8.5451 million tons, down 203300 tons on a weekly basis, a decrease of 2.32 percent, of which building materials consumption fell 5.9 percent month-on-month and sheet consumption fell 0.2 percent. On Friday, the consumption of building materials and plates in large varieties decreased, of which the consumption of building materials decreased most obviously. Generally speaking, from the data of the five major varieties, the overall pattern of supply and demand is weak, inventory begins to fall, and there is a certain pressure on the fundamentals. On the supply side, affected by the mood of the new and old thread conversion, the consumption of the old national standard is the main focus. Many steel products are controlled in production and sales. The thread output is greatly reduced, and the profit contraction of steel mills continues to lead to a decrease in steel output. On the demand side, according to a 100-year construction survey, as of July 30, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites is 62.05, down 0.30 percentage points from the previous week to week, the follow-up is still in the off-season of demand, steel demand is still weak, inventory, steel supply is greatly reduced, demand seasonal decline, the future inventory is expected to be slightly reduced. On the whole, the current macro no obvious favorable policy, superimposed on the accumulation of steel fundamentals contradictions, it is expected that short-term steel prices are still under pressure, the follow-up need to pay attention to the U.S. interest rate cut.

The Steel House:Last week, the domestic steel market prices continued to fall, but the decline slowed. Judging from the recent market, there is limited room for steel prices to continue to fall. First, steel prices have fallen to the bottom area in the past seven years. Some markets have experienced low innovation, and merchants have generally lost money in inventory resources and steel mill production. The second is the conversion of new and old steel standards, which have a greater impact on the market in the early stage. The price of new standard products in steel mills is higher than the old standard, and some steel mills have begun to reduce production, leaving room to digest inventory, the Politburo meeting called for speeding up the implementation of the policy has been introduced, the appropriate reserve increment policy, clearly put forward to avoid "internal roll-up" evil competition, steel mills loss-making production may be reversed, crude steel production control policy is expected to land. The main adverse factors are, weak demand superimposed on high temperature and rainy and other seasonal effects, short-term demand is difficult to pick up, steel mills have not yet shown obvious signs of production reduction, short-term supply is still at a high level, steel inventory, especially plate inventory anti-seasonal rebound, business expectations are still weak. Overall, it is expected that the domestic steel market prices are expected to stabilize and rebound this week, but the magnitude is limited.

Lange:At present, the adverse effects of changes in the external environment have increased, domestic effective demand is insufficient, economic operation is divided, there are still many hidden risks in key areas, and there are pains in the conversion of new and old kinetic energy. In the second half of the year, we should continue to exert ourselves and give more force. It is necessary to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, speed up the full implementation of identified policy measures, reserve early and launch a number of incremental policy measures in a timely manner; speed up the issuance and use of special bonds, make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, support the building of security capacity in major national strategies and key areas, and make greater efforts to promote large-scale equipment renewal and large-scale durable consumer goods for new ones; it is necessary to comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools, increase financial support for the real economy, and promote a steady decline in the cost of comprehensive social financing; it is necessary to focus on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand, further mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment, and expand effective investment. From the black futures market, the main thread closed 3379, up 8 points from last week's closing price 3371, and the weekly settlement 3343, down 56 points from last week's settlement price 3399. Up to now, the position is 2.176 million hands, compared with last Friday's position reduction of more than 130000 hands. Last week, the first down and then up, the time across the end of July and early August, the position continued to decrease, the rebound between the low point to the high point of more than 100 points, the weekly pattern showed a more obvious shadow line, although the trend has not changed, but the small cycle rebound signal is strong, do not rule out that there is still a small upward space. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure near the upper 3400. The pressure near the 3455 will be heavier. If this position is not nearby, continue to defend downwards. Below focus on 3356, 3324, 3300 several important support levels. From the point of view of the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to the gradual increase in the loss pressure of steel mills varieties, the release of production capacity is also gradually shrinking, iron production decreased slightly, while the variety of production performance is different. Demand side: Due to the influence of seasonal weather, typhoons, rainstorms, and geological disasters continue to alternate with each other, and outdoor construction has been severely affected, making market transactions continue to shrink. Cost side: The support for production costs continues to weaken as iron ore prices fall slightly and scrap and coke prices fall slightly. Therefore, Lange Steel Research Center expects (2024.8.5-8.9) that the domestic steel market will be under the influence of the expected strengthening of macro-policy landing, the gradual contraction of steel mill supply, the continued contraction of market transactions and the continued weakening of cost support, the domestic steel market may show a weak market.

Tang and Song:This week, the country's high temperature heat, the north is still in the main period of heavy rainfall, construction, processing and manufacturing terminal rigid demand continues to remain low, the old national standard resources selling pressure still exists and the absolute inventory of hot rolls is high, the market speculative atmosphere is still low. Overall steel demand continues to maintain a low adjustment state. From the supply side, the loss of steel enterprises continued, the pre-planned maintenance of steel enterprises will be implemented one after another, long-process production line to start or continue to decline. Affected by the southern "peak summer" power-limiting policy and product losses, short-process starts continued to decline slightly. Steel social inventory or continue to decline slightly, the north and south regions, the variety of inventory rise and fall is different. Recently, although the macro favorable policies have been continuously released, the production reduction and maintenance of superimposed steel enterprises have been increasing, and the market contradiction has eased slightly compared with the previous period, the market still has worries about the decline of steel inventory, the high inventory pressure, especially the expected decline of coke price, the weak iron ore price support of the US dollar, and the loose steel cost support. Overlay announced that the Caixin PMI fell significantly, falling below the 50-year-old line, the weak operating pattern of economic activity still exists. As well as the excessive slowdown in the U.S. economy caused by recession fears intensified, the market is still under dark clouds. It is expected that this week's black period in stock market will continue to adjust the probability of running low. Above the period snail focus on the 3394 pressure below the 3309 near the support.

youfa group han weidong:The total inventory announced by Shanghai Steel Federation has dropped slightly. Generally, after the total inventory forms a high point after the Spring Festival, it will always remove the inventory until November-December. The decline in inventory does not mean anything, but the rise must be bad. The output announced by the Steel Union has also declined rapidly. In addition, according to the maintenance plan announced by the steel mills, the daily production of crude steel in August will return to about 2.8 million tons, reaching the balance of supply and demand. As we said earlier, no matter which year, Nissan crude steel will fall after 300, and now it has finally been reduced, but the industry cost is painful. Since July 18, the situation that demand has dropped by about 15% in more than ten days due to the weather will gradually improve. In addition, the systematic factor that led to the black oversold, the Mandarin Commodity Index, also stopped rebounding as it broke through the first-half lows and approached last year's lows. Steel prices are also in a safe range below the lowest price after going to ground steel in 2017. On the whole, the various factors that led to the decline in steel prices: inventory, production, demand, and the Mandarin Commodity Index have all undergone fundamental changes. You can breathe a sigh of relief, wait patiently for the arrival of the market to pick up, and drink tea with confidence!