Experts say the city-August 12

My steel:On the supply side, 8.4406 million tons of large steel varieties were supplied on Friday, down 314200 tons, or 3.59 percent, from the previous week. Long-process contribution is mainly reduced (-187000 tons), especially the thread production decline is the most obvious, down 8.7 percent, mainly affected by the conversion of old and new national standards; on Friday, the total inventory of large steel was 17.4741 million tons, down 104500 tons on a weekly basis, a decrease of 0.60 percent. On Friday, the total inventory of large varieties decreased, the factory warehouse decreased by 31000 tons, a decrease of 0.64 percent, and the social warehouse decreased by 73500 tons, a decrease of 0.58 percent. On the consumption side, the weekly consumption of large varieties on Friday was 8.5451 million tons, down 203300 tons on a weekly basis, a decrease of 2.32 percent, of which building materials consumption fell 5.9 percent month-on-month and sheet consumption fell 0.2 percent. On Friday, the consumption of building materials and plates in large varieties decreased, of which the consumption of building materials decreased most obviously. Generally speaking, from the data of the five major varieties, the overall pattern of supply and demand is weak, inventory begins to fall, and there is a certain pressure on the fundamentals. On the supply side, affected by the mood of the new and old thread conversion, the consumption of the old national standard is the main focus. Many steel products are controlled in production and sales. The thread output is greatly reduced, and the profit contraction of steel mills continues to lead to a decrease in steel output. On the demand side, according to a 100-year construction survey, as of July 30, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites is 62.05, down 0.30 percentage points from the previous week to week, the follow-up is still in the off-season of demand, steel demand is still weak, inventory, steel supply is greatly reduced, demand seasonal decline, the future inventory is expected to be slightly reduced. On the whole, the current macro no obvious favorable policy, superimposed on the accumulation of steel fundamentals contradictions, it is expected that short-term steel prices are still under pressure, the follow-up need to pay attention to the U.S. interest rate cut.
 

The Steel House:Last week, the domestic steel market prices continued to fall, weak downstream demand and lack of market confidence is the main reason. From the perspective of the recent market, favorable factors in the market are gradually increasing. First, steel production is gradually shrinking. In late July, the crude steel output of key steel companies dropped significantly from the previous month. The operating rate of blast furnaces continued to fall, and the production reduction of steel mills may gradually fall. After the "seven under eight" high temperature and rain, the seasonal impact will gradually weaken; third, the policy environment will improve, and the new special bonds and special bonds will be implemented, later investment is expected to stabilize; fourth, steel mills are generally losing money, coupled with steel prices in the bottom area of nearly seven years, there is a certain cost support. The main unfavorable factors are that the current downstream demand is still weak, the market confidence is insufficient, the plate inventory continues to run at a high level, especially the hot coil inventory continues to increase, the inventory pressure is greater, and the short-term steel price recovery power is insufficient. It is expected that the domestic steel market prices this week will be dominated by a small shock.

Lange:At present, the complexity of the external environment is on the rise, and global trade in goods has been in a moderate recovery range since the beginning of this year, but geopolitical tensions, increased trade restrictions and increased competition in industrial policies among countries may have a greater negative impact. Recently, in accordance with the deployment of the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a number of measures to support large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in, which greatly increased the support, and arranged ultra-long-term special national debt of 150 billion yuan to support local governments to implement consumer goods trade-in. The subsidy standard was increased from 10000 yuan for the purchase of new energy passenger cars and 7000 yuan for the purchase of fuel passenger cars to 20000 yuan and 15000 yuan respectively. From the black futures market, the thread main 10 contracts closed 3277, down 9 points a day, down 102 points 3379 last week's closing price, the weekly settlement 3317 fell 26 points from last week, and the latest position was 2.055 million hands, down 120000 hands from last Friday. From a technical point of view, prices fell sharply last week and hit a new low, the intraday rebound was weak, and the moving averages continued to diverge downward. There has not been a bottoming signal yet, and it is necessary to guard against continued downside risks. Lower support reference 3252, 3217; upper pressure 3300, 3324, 3380. From the perspective of the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to the increasing loss pressure of steel mills, the release of production capacity is also gradually shrinking, the output of molten iron continues to decline slightly, while the output of varieties increases slightly. Demand side: due to the influence of seasonal weather, the current market turnover continues to maintain a low level, but the "golden nine silver ten" peak season is coming, and the market speculation demand is also gradually rising. Cost side: Support for production costs continues to weaken due to small declines in iron ore, scrap and coke prices. Therefore, Lange Steel Research Center expects (2024.8.12-8.16) the domestic steel market will be in the "golden nine silver ten" peak season is expected to strengthen, steel mill supply gradually contracted, market transactions remain low, cost support continues to weaken under the influence of the domestic steel market or will show a weak downward exploration of the market.

Tang and Song:This week into the beginning of autumn solar terms, the weather in most parts of the country is still hot, construction, processing and manufacturing terminal rigid demand continues to remain low, the current old national standard resources selling pressure still exists, as well as hot roll inventory continues to rise slightly, high inventory situation, the market sentiment is depressed. Overall steel demand continues to remain low. From the supply side, the expansion of steel losses, steel enterprises independent maintenance, production reduction continues to increase, superimposed on the early steel enterprises have maintenance plans will be implemented one after another, steel enterprises long process production line to expand the decline. Restricted electricity policy and product losses continued to expand the impact, short-process starts continued to decline slightly, the steel market overall showed a "supply decline expanded, demand remained low" state. Steel social inventory or decline expanded, the north and south regions, various varieties of inventory rise and fall differences. Recently, global stock markets have weakened sharply, the risk of economic recession has intensified, capital risk aversion is heavy, commodities as a whole are under pressure, and it may be difficult to reverse the decline in the short term. This week, the domestic economic performance data for July have been released one after another, which is expected to be difficult to boost the market. Industry side, the recent steel enterprises maintenance, production reduction continued to increase, the demand for raw fuel weakened, the decline in raw fuel expanded, steel costs moved down, the market negative feedback trading is obvious. In the short term, although the decline on the supply side will accelerate, demand is already at a low level and the room for demand decline will narrow or stabilize. It will help the market to stop falling. However, the risk of global recession is rising, commodities are under pressure, negative feedback from the industrial end of the market is still in progress, the risk of high inventory of hot rolls, ores and other varieties is still in place, the market is still expected to have room for decline, this week's black period in stock market continues to be weak to run bottom probability. Short-term markets remain risk-averse. The period snail enters the fifth falling wave channel, with the lower low point or in the 3175-3100 range.

youfa group han weidong:According to the weekly data released by Shanghai Steel Union, the output dropped rapidly and the total inventory began to decline normally. Earlier we mentioned the negative "Nissan crude steel over -3 million and total inventory rise" has been gone. From a fundamental point of view, with the arrival of autumn, the off-season gradually ends. Once market demand returns to normal levels, inventories will fall faster. What is certain at present is that the worst time of demand will pass as the weather improves, production will continue to decline later, and the relationship between supply and demand will change. The only thing that needs attention is the Mandarin Commodity Index. The main culprit for this wave of black oversold is its rapid decline and a new low this year, because commodities are trading in the US economic recession. Once the Mandarin Commodity Index stops falling and rebounds, black will follow. First, the oversold price of steel should be raised back. This is about 200, and then the average price in the first half of this year, because the demand in the second half will definitely be better than the first half, this also has more than 200 ......, of course, although we rationally and objectively analyze the market, but do not gamble on the market, because the world environment is too volatile and complex, systemic risks may occur at any time, or drink some tea, continue to operate steadily!