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2024-10-17

How much room is there for raw materials to rise and fall in the sixth round of coke?

Stimulated by a series of favorable macro policies of the country, the market expectation has been enhanced, the production enthusiasm of steel mills has been significantly improved, and the price of raw materials has also risen. Yesterday, the sixth round of coke rise fully landed, and the prices of iron ore and scrap steel have also risen to varying degrees recently.

According to the monitoring data of Lange Iron and Steel Cloud Business Platform, on October 16, the price of coke in Tangshan was 1800 yuan/ton. In less than a month, six rounds of coke increases were fully implemented, with a cumulative increase of 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 20%. With the rise of coke price, the profit of coking plant has basically changed from loss to profit, and the overall willingness to increase production has been strengthened. However, due to the increase of production enthusiasm of steel mills, the increase of coke consumption and demand, the inventory in coking plant is still in a low state of operation.

Zhang Xuying, a raw material analyst at Lange Steel Network, said that after the sixth round of coke price rises and falls, considering the shock of the "double coke" disk and the decline in the price of finished products, the bullish sentiment in the coke market has obviously subsided. However, as there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand in the coke market, the coke price will remain stable in the short term.

Iron ore, the recent price has also seen a more pronounced recovery. Monitoring data from the Lange Iron and Steel Cloud Business Platform show that since mid-September, the price of iron ore in Rizhao Port has risen by more than 100 yuan/ton, and the price of the main iron ore contract has also risen by more than 100 points. So, is there room to continue to rise in the later period?

Qi Xin, an iron ore analyst at Lange Iron and Steel Network, said that although there has been a certain increase in molten iron production and the fundamentals of iron ore have improved, the supply is still increasing, and the current iron ore inventory is still at a high level. Therefore, there is insufficient motivation to continue to rise.

According to Lange Steel Network, as of today, the iron ore port inventory is 144.51 million tons, an increase of 34.99 million tons over the same period last year, an increase of 31.95; as of last Friday, the iron ore inventory of steel mills was 74.578 million tons, compared with last year An increase of 1.1827 million tons, an increase of 1.61 percent. At present, both port inventory and steel mill inventory of iron ore are higher than the level of the same period last year, and the supply is relatively loose.

Recently, scrap prices have also risen. According to the monitoring data of Lange Iron and Steel Cloud Business Platform, on October 16, the price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2320 yuan/ton. Since mid-September, the cumulative increase has reached 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.41. At present, the supply of scrap steel is still relatively tight. Most bases indicate that the arrival volume is low, and traders also say that the receiving situation is not ideal. The demand for scrap steel has increased due to the increase in the operating rate of electric furnace plants, so the scrap steel market is currently in a relatively tight state of supply and demand.

Sui Xin, a scrap analyst at Lange Steel Network, said that in the short term, the shortage of resources in the scrap market is difficult to improve, and scrap prices still have some room for upward movement, but the increase will not be too large.

In summary, from mid-September to the present, the prices of raw materials such as coke and iron ore have risen significantly, but the room for raw material prices to continue to rise in the later period is relatively limited, and it will be stable in the short term.

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