Experts say the city-November 21

My steel:On the supply side, the supply of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.7342 million tons, up 96000 tons or 1.1 percent from the previous week. Steel mills store profits, driving steel mills to continue production, steel supply increased, last Friday's total steel inventory of 12.7254 million tons, the week-on-week decline of 375400 tons, a decrease of 2.9 percent, last Friday's total inventory of large varieties of storage, the factory warehouse week-on-week increase of 10900 tons, an increase of 0.28 percent, and the social warehouse week-on-week decline of 386300 tons, a decrease of 4.22 percent. On the consumption side, the weekly consumption of large varieties on Friday was 9.1098 million tons, an increase of 181500 tons on a weekly basis, an increase of 2 percent, of which building materials consumption increased by 5.6 percent month-on-month, sheet consumption fell by 0.1 percent. On Friday, large varieties of building materials and sheet consumption rose and fell, of which building materials consumption increased significantly. Generally speaking, from the data of the five major varieties, there is a pattern of double increase in supply and demand as a whole, inventory is in a state of decline, and there is no obvious pressure on the fundamentals. On the supply side, steel mills kept profits, steel mills continued to produce, and supply increased, but the growth rate narrowed. On the demand side, as of October 15, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 63.54, up 0.28 percentage points from the previous week. The capital availability rate of construction sites increased for three consecutive weeks, narrowing from last week but increasing from the first week of October. In some areas, construction resumed and demand was still supported. On the inventory side, demand increased, inventory decline. On the whole, the follow-up demand pressure, production continues to increase, inventories may be tired, steel fundamentals will be contradictory, later still need to pay attention to important meetings, meeting rules, the U.S. election, short-term steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely.

The Steel House:Last week, the domestic steel market prices continued to fluctuate and fall. First, the production enthusiasm of steel mills increased, and the pressure on resource supply increased; second, merchants made rich profits from inventory resources, and the enthusiasm for shipping was relatively high; third, they were greatly affected by the capital market, especially black futures., Post-holiday policy expectations seem to be less than expected, leading to sharp fluctuations in the capital market. From the perspective of the later market, on the supply side, steel production rebounded month on month in September but not by much. In early October, the output of key steel enterprises continued to rebound. Combined with changes in the operating rate of blast furnaces and electric furnaces, the production enthusiasm of steel mills was still high. On the demand side, the early special debt projects are accelerating the formation of physical workload, and there is a certain prefetch for demand recovery. On the policy side, it is less likely to continue to introduce heavy incremental policies in the later period, focus on the intensity of implementation. On the cost side, it is more difficult for coke to continue to rise for six consecutive rounds, iron ore continues to adjust, and costs stabilize. Compared with the current high point, the current steel price correction rate has reached about 40%, the risk has been obtained by the market, coupled with the later arrival cost rise, it is expected that the domestic steel market price will gradually stabilize this week.

Lange:In the first three quarters, in the face of the complex and severe external environment and the new situation and new problems in the operation of the domestic economy, all regions and departments adhered to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, intensified macro-control efforts, focused on deepening reform and opening up, expanding domestic demand, optimizing the economic structure, effectively implementing the stock policy, and stepping up the introduction of incremental policies, people's livelihood security is solid and strong, new quality productivity is developing steadily, high-quality development is advancing steadily, most production demand indicators improved in September, market expectations improved, and positive factors driving the economic recovery have accumulated. From the perspective of the black futures market, the black system generally closed down, but due to the strong rebound of the stock index in the afternoon, the overall decline was significantly narrower than the night market. Among them, the thread main 01 contract closed 3336, down 63 on the day and 132 on the week. The position was 1.8 million, up 50000 from last Friday, and the final position was little changed in a week. The weekly settlement price 3322, down 133 points from last week. This week, refer to the upper pressure: 3400 and 3456; Lower support: 3280, 3250 and 3221. From the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to the peak season expectations and the impact of variety earnings, capacity release efforts to enhance, iron production continued to rise, while the variety of production is mixed. Demand side: due to the traditional peak season demand release strength is insufficient, the market transaction is obviously unstable situation, the market "buy up not buy down" mentality is more serious. Cost side: As iron ore prices fell slightly, scrap prices fell, coke prices rose slightly, making production cost support to maintain toughness. Therefore, Lange Iron and Steel Research Center expects (2024.10.21-10.25) that the domestic steel market will show a volatile decline under the influence of weaker-than-expected macro policies, insufficient demand release in peak seasons, rising supply from steel mills, obvious instability in market transactions, and cost support to maintain toughness.

Tang and Song:This week coincided with the seasonal release of terminal demand, while steel prices fell significantly, high price risk release, speculative trade demand or increase, steel demand continued to grow slightly. From the supply side, with the obvious narrowing of the profits of some steel enterprises, the operating rate of long-process production lines or a small increase; because the rebar still has a higher profit, the operating rate of short-process continues to maintain a high level and a small increase; the steel supply and demand market as a whole is "high supply growth, demand stable and small rebound" state. The decline in steel social inventories narrowed, with differences in the rise and fall of inventories in the north and south regions and varieties. At present, although the supply continues to increase, but with the actual demand gradually improved, steel inventory low, steel fundamentals contradictions are not prominent, high supply pressure still needs time to accumulate. At the same time, under the influence of macro policies, the market fluctuated greatly in the early stage. With the gradual weakening of the policy leading market, the prices of major varieties fell to a lower level, the market sentiment returned to rationality, and the role of steel market fundamentals in leading the market gradually increased. In addition, in the short term or in the gap period of new policies, the influence of macro policies and news on the market weakened, The overall market has entered the stage of shock adjustment and in stock. Pay attention to the support near the 3230 and 3130 below the snail.

youfa group han weidong:According to the September steel output released by the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic crude steel supply fell 10.3 percent year-on-year in September, while domestic demand increased year-on-year in September, crude steel supply fell 6.1 percent year-on-year in January-September, while demand should fall below 5 percent. Therefore, from the perspective of the actual contradiction between supply and demand, the problem is not big. It is market expectations and excessive amplification of "overcapacity" that lead to too much pessimism in the market. Judging from the series of policies and goals issued by the state in late September, we are full of confidence for next year! Since the price of steel has chosen to pull back downward, we need not worry. If the ideal low price is given, it may be the winter storage price this year. Referring to the price in the first half of this year, the average price of strip steel in Tangshan in the first half of the year was 3733, the average price of hot coil in Shanghai was 3877, and the average price of thread in Shanghai was 3723. In the volatile market since the second half of 2022, there are many factors for each market rebound, but one factor has never changed: it all starts with low prices! Of course, we still do not recommend that everyone bet on the market. The current international market is too chaotic and has too great an impact on China's imports and exports and bulk commodities. Steady operation is still the first choice for the steady development of enterprises!