Experts say the city-November 11

My steel:On the supply side, the supply of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.6149 million tons, down 57900 tons, or 0.7 percent, from the previous week. On Friday, the production of large steel varieties in addition to cold and hot-rolled other varieties of production have declined, the core driver is that off-season demand is weak, superimposed steel mill profits have contracted, resulting in a weakening of production momentum, some steel mills to stop production, production reduction. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of large steel on Friday was 12.188 million tons, down 161000 tons or 1.3 percent from the previous week. On Friday, the total inventory of large varieties, except for rebar, decreased: the factory warehouse fell month-on-week, mainly from the contribution of cold rolling. The weekly decline in the social library was mainly due to the hot-rolled contribution. On the consumption side, the weekly consumption of large varieties on Friday was 8.776 million tons, down 1.6 percent month-on-month, including building materials consumption fell 4.6 percent month-on-month, sheet consumption increased 0.2 percent month-on-month. On Friday, large varieties of apparent consumption showed a double decline in building materials sheet, off-season demand showed a gradual weakening trend. Overall, the decline in demand is expected to overlay the steel mill year-end practice of maintenance, steel mill production continues to rise in the lack of space, overlay profit contraction, production or gradually show a downward trend, steel fundamentals show a weakening trend, but the overall contradiction is still in the process of accumulation, short-term market concern or still lies in the macro aspect. In the recent overseas election process, the market has different views on Harris deal or Trump deal, and the market fluctuates greatly. Then, due to concerns about Trump's tough policy, the market as a whole has weakened. The later high-level meeting will still cause great disturbance to the market. Attention will be paid to the impact of specific policies after tomorrow's meeting, and short-term steel prices may fluctuate.

The Steel House:Last week, the domestic steel market prices to a small shock operation, the plate market is stronger than the construction steel. Judging from the later market, construction steel is facing the pressure of weakening demand and increasing output. The product structure of some steel mills may be adjusted to plate, and the pressure on plate will gradually increase. The current market expectation is weak, and the circulation enterprises operate with low inventory and do not easily replenish inventory. The second round of coke price drop landed. Under the pressure of high port inventory, imported mines are also facing downward pressure and cost support is weakened. The positive factors are: first, steel exports continue to increase substantially, which is conducive to alleviating the pressure on domestic resource supply; second, the National people's Congress approved the 6 trillion of bonds, plus 800 billion yuan of special bonds every year for the next five years, the resources used to resolve local debts will reach 10 trillion yuan, which is conducive to reducing local pressure, loading light and developing the economy. It is expected that the domestic steel market prices will be mainly adjusted slightly this week.

Lange:The fundamentals of China's economy and favorable conditions such as a broad market, strong economic resilience and great potential have not changed. In particular, since the release and implementation of a package of financial incremental policies, social confidence has been strongly boosted. It is necessary to grasp the dynamic balance between economic growth and the quality of economic growth, internal and external, investment and consumption, continue to implement supportive monetary policies, promote trade and investment and financing facilitation, create a market-oriented, legalized and international first-class business environment, and promote a sustained economic recovery.Judging from the black futures market, the main thread force 01 closed at 3367, down 32 on the day and 26 on the week. The settlement price 3405, down 24 from last Friday's settlement price. The current position is 1.777 million lots, with a daily increase of 100000 lots, an increase of 70000 lots from last Friday's position. Last week's market was disturbed by hot events and policies, with sharp fluctuations in the market, with higher and lower points falling more than last week. Friday's high fell, the clear market component is larger. From a technical point of view, the weekly closing position did not go bad, but to prevent the daily level of further decline. Next, focus on the game near the 3360, as 3400 above, is expected to continue to strengthen, not on the wait to fall back to buy opportunities. From the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to the policy expectations and the impact of the variety of profit and loss, capacity release from weak to strong, iron production increased slightly, while the variety of production decreased slightly. Demand side: With the conversion of the traditional off-season, terminal demand will gradually weaken, market transactions once again return to an unstable state, "news level" for the market impact is more obvious. Cost side: As iron ore prices rose slightly, scrap prices fell steadily, coke prices remained stable, making production costs support to maintain toughness. Therefore, Lange Iron and Steel Research Center predicts (2024.11.11-11.15) that the domestic steel market will continue to be disturbed by external factors. Under the influence of domestic policy expectations, terminal demand gradually weakening, steel mill supply from weak to strong, market turnover returning to instability, and cost support maintaining toughness, the domestic steel market may show a volatile rise.

Tang and Song:This week is still in the end-demand seasonal release period, steel demand still has some resilience, demand or maintain the current level. From the supply side, as the profits of some steel enterprises narrowed significantly, the operating rate of long-process production lines or growth slowed down; the operating rate of short-process continued to remain high; the steel supply and demand market as a whole showed a state of "high supply and stable, stable demand. Steel social inventory decreased slightly, the north and south regions, the variety of inventory rise and fall is different. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is about to pass, there is little room for incremental improvement in demand, but there is a certain degree of resilience in current demand, and inventories remain low. Overlay steel costs still have some support, steel selling pressure is not big, the accumulation of industrial contradictions still need some time. The macro level is expected to heat up again, on October 25, the regular meeting of the National People's Congress once again stressed that efforts to achieve the annual economic goals, grasp the landing of a package of incremental policies, to form a good support for the market. In the short term, the market once again returned to macro-led, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the U.S. election and other important events near the market uncertainty increased, high attention to risk control mainly. Pay close attention to changes in macro expectations. It is expected that this week's black period in stock price strong adjustment probability is greater. Focus on 3475 pressure above the snail and support near the 3385 below.

youfa group han weidong:Several boots have landed, none of which exceeded expectations, but there are many thoughts in the market. The international fundamentals of the future are from the rate hike cycle to the rate cut cycle and the new era of U.S. policy. The domestic macro-economy has eliminated local debt risks and constraints, eased the pressure on real estate, and activated the capital market. The worst time for the market has passed! In the next step, the market will enter the stage of winter storage. In fact, the iron and steel industry will store winter storage every year, but the structure of this group changes year by year. When the expectation is particularly good, the price will be on the high side. Otherwise, it will be a low price winter storage, which will win the price difference. This year's reference point takes Tangshan strip steel as an example to find its ideal price between 3000 and 3500, and when to save it! Refer to the profit and loss situation and output of steel mills. The reasonable price range in the first half of next year is around 3500-4000. However, it should be noted that the demand for policy stimulus will not increase significantly soon, and the stability of the market has been dominated by the control and restraint of steel mills in recent months. Our choice is not only how much to save and how much to save, there is also a choice is not to save, the conditions are not, must not be forced! In October, all enterprises have good benefits. Go for tea.