2024-12-02
The winter storage game is gradually starting, and the domestic steel market is experiencing strong fluctuations.
In the 48th week of 2024 (November 25-29, 2024), the Lange Steel National Absolute Price Index is 37,313 yuan, a decrease of 0.1% from last week and a decrease of 12.6% from the same period last year; among them, the Lange Steel Long Product Absolute Price Index is 3,497 yuan, a decrease of 0.3% from last week and a decrease of 15.2% from the same period last year; the Lange Steel Profile Absolute Price Index is 3,613 yuan, a decrease of 0.2% from last week and a decrease of 13.1% from the same period last year; the Lange Steel Plate Absolute Price Index is 3,834 yuan, an increase of 0.1% from last week and a decrease of 11.4% from the same period last year; the Lange Steel Pipe Absolute Price Index is 4,288 yuan, a decrease of 0.5% from last week and a decrease of 6.6% from the same period last year.
Figure 1: Lange Steel Price Index Trend Chart
With the accelerated implementation of stock policies and the introduction of a package of incremental policies, the national economy is operating steadily with progress, and major indicators have significantly rebounded, accumulating more positive factors. However, it is also important to recognize that the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, domestic effective demand is relatively weak, and the foundation for sustained economic recovery still needs to be consolidated. We must adhere to the overall tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately implement the new development concept, solidly promote high-quality development, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and vigorously advance the implementation of a package of incremental policies to consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, striving to achieve the annual economic and social development goals.
From the perspective of the black futures market, the main rebar contract 01 closed at 3,318, up 16 points for the day and 41 points for the week. The weekly settlement price is 3,309, an increase of 13 points from last week. The latest open interest is 1.116 million contracts, a decrease of 681,000 contracts from last Friday, indicating a significant withdrawal of main funds from the 01 contract over the week, which has clearly limited the operational space of the 01 contract. It is expected that the main contract will be rotated at the beginning of next month. From a technical perspective, the 01 contract has not yet strengthened on the weekly chart, having weakened continuously after reaching the weekly resistance of 3,350, ultimately closing below 3,330. The next step is to continue to pay attention to the performance above the 3,300 mark; only by effectively stabilizing above 3,340 can it further strengthen.
From the perspective of the steel spot market, on the supply side: due to the impact of profit and loss among varieties, the release of production capacity has fluctuated and weakened, with a slight decrease in molten iron output, while the output of various products continues to rise. On the demand side: as seasonal weather effects deepen, market transactions gradually weaken, and the traditional off-season effect begins to manifest, but the winter storage game between steel mills and steel traders is also gradually starting. On the cost side: due to the stable but slightly rising iron ore prices, stable but declining scrap steel prices, and stable coking coal prices, production costs maintain resilient support. Therefore, the Lange Steel Research Center predicts that from December 2 to December 6, 2024, the domestic steel market may show a trend of fluctuating strength under the influence of existing macro policy expectations, slight fluctuations in steel mill supply, the emergence of off-season effects, the gradual start of winter storage games, and resilient cost support.
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