International steel prices fell across the board in May.
Flat material
Sheet coil
In North America Steel market American users continue to wait and see due to high inventories, resulting in Hot-rolled coil prices are facing continuous downward pressure. After the full implementation of the 25% Section 232 tariffs, Turkish and Vietnamese suppliers have lowered their prices to seize market share. Currently, the price of hot-rolled coils from US domestic steel mills is between US$850 and US$900 per short ton (US$937-US$992 per ton), but due to weak seasonal demand and scrap steel price adjustments, it is expected to fall further, and may even fall below US$800 per short ton. Although retailer inventories are expected to gradually decrease as the wait-and-see sentiment continues, overall demand for hot-rolled coils in the US remains weak, with continued contraction in demand from the automotive and construction industries, and the uncertainty of international trade policies also makes it difficult for most steel consuming companies to formulate long-term procurement plans. The Canadian market is also under pressure. Affected by the 25% export tariff to the US, domestic steel mills have oversupply and narrowed profit margins. In May, hot-rolled coil prices fell by CAD40-CAD60 per short ton month-on-month, the order delivery cycle shortened, and inventories at steel service centers remained high.
The European market faces double pressure. On the one hand, Indonesian hot-rolled coils are flooding in with tax exemption advantages, and on the other hand, domestic steel mills are facing limitations in the delivery of hot-dip galvanized coil orders. Hot-dip galvanized coils imported from Taiwan and Vietnam have a price advantage of over EUR100 per ton compared to European products. UK market participants are concerned about the safeguard measures that may be adjusted on October 1, and importers have reduced their procurement of galvanized coils from South Korea and Vietnam in advance. Buyers in Italy and Spain confirmed that steel mills have offered discounts in pricing this month. In May, European sheet coil prices fell by EUR10-EUR20 per ton month-on-month, and import prices fell by EUR40 per ton, but the delivery cycle for third-country products is long, and tariff risks are still unclear. Although Vietnamese galvanized coils bear an over-quota safeguard tariff of about EUR50 per ton, they still maintain price competitiveness, and higher tariffs are expected in the third quarter.
The Central European sheet coil market shows a pattern of supply and demand game. Downstream demand for thin plates, pipes, etc. is weak, buyers are demanding price cuts, while steel mills maintain their prices to ensure profits based on the previous decline in raw material costs. Many steel mills have supported prices by limiting spot supply, leading to longer delivery times for hot-dip galvanized coils. The product structure in Central Europe has undergone significant transformation. The automotive industry prefers hot-dip galvanized coils, cold-rolled coils and electrogalvanized coils are in reduced demand; the white goods and construction machinery sectors strip steel demand is sluggish, but the Czech automotive industry is performing strongly, with Skoda and Toyota maintaining stable production before summer maintenance.
The East Asian market is constrained by uncertainty in trade policies. A temporary tariff agreement was reached between China and the US: tariffs on some Chinese goods (including fentanyl-related goods) were reduced from 145% to 30%, and China's corresponding tariffs were reduced from 125% to 10%. The 90-day temporary adjustment period did not result in a formal agreement, putting pressure on regional procurement plans. South Korea is conducting anti-dumping investigations into hot-rolled coils from China and Japan. If the investigation ultimately finds in favor, it may lead to a reduction in imports, which may in turn support prices of domestic sheet coils in South Korea.
In May, US medium and thick plate prices fell by US$40-US$50 per short ton (US$44-US$55 per ton) month-on-month, with cautious buyer procurement being an important factor. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act maintains some demand, but economic uncertainty is suppressing procurement across multiple industries. The US shipbuilding industry has positive expectations for China's ship port fees policy, but the proposal faces industry resistance and may disrupt the global trade chain. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.0 in March to 48.7 in April, remaining in the contraction range. MEPS research shows a slowdown in new orders, and the market expects demand to improve in the second half of 2025.
The Canadian market weakened simultaneously, with prices falling slightly month-on-month in May. The restoration of the 25% steel tariff on the US in March led to a sharp reduction in cross-border exports, putting pressure on domestic steel mills' excess inventories. This situation shortened the order delivery cycle and strengthened the downward expectation of prices.
Western Europe saw its first price correction in nearly six months. In May, regional prices fell across the board (UK prices in local currency remained flat), with low demand and high inventories being the main influencing factors. The adjustment of EU safeguard measures and supply fluctuations caused by US tariff policies intensified price fluctuations. Low-priced resources from South Korea exited the European market, mainly because the EU implemented a single-country tax-free quota limit of 20%. UK importers reported that South Korean inventories in the Port of Liverpool are gradually being digested, and the 40% national quota limit to be implemented on October 1 may further restrict imports.
European steel mills did not benefit from the weakening of South Korean competition, and the gap in the Spanish market was filled by resources from Taiwan. Weak spot demand restricts price increases: French rolling mills lowered prices due to lower slab prices and electricity price adjustments, but this did not boost transaction volume; the EUR60 billion Naples-Bari high-speed rail project in Italy provided regional support; German steel mills are focusing on the EUR500 billion infrastructure plan, but the policy effect is expected to appear in 2025.
Central Europe faces increased supply pressure. The Huta Czestochowa steel plant in Poland has resumed production and increased production, and the current lessee, the Polish state-owned coal export company Weglokoks is negotiating the transfer of ownership with the government. The Polish Prime Minister emphasized its strategic value to the defense industry, and the Ministry of National Defence (MON) launched the acquisition process, but there are differences in valuation. Domestic buyers recognize its ability to supply commercial-grade medium and thick plates (such as S275/S355), and the delivery time in June is more competitive than that of the Vitkovice steel plant in the Czech Republic in late July. The steel mill's price increase in May was not achieved, with weak end-user demand, insufficient new projects, and increased production in Czestochowa forming a triple resistance.
Trade in medium and thick plates in the East Asian market is affected by policy adjustments. After South Korea implemented anti-dumping measures on April 24, imports of Chinese medium and thick plates decreased. In April, Chinese imports fell to their lowest level since September 2022. The market price level of Chinese products still restricts the extent to which domestic steel mills can raise prices.
In May, US Rebar prices The price dropped by $10 per short ton (approximately $11 per ton) month-on-month, with a decrease of CA$60 per short ton in the Canadian market. Further downward pressure on prices is expected. Meanwhile, US wire rod prices remained stable, with increased orders for domestic steel mills due to uncertainty surrounding import tariff policies. The Canadian steel industry anticipates the government will initiate revisions to Section 53 of the Customs Tariff Act, with Canadian steel companies pushing for stronger trade restrictions on specific countries (particularly China). If implemented, tighter long product supply could support domestic prices.
The German market shows a differentiated pattern, with rebar prices rising by €10-€15 per ton month-on-month in May, thanks to stable demand and low inventories. In contrast, while Italian steel mills' offers are €100 per ton lower than those in Germany, some users report difficulties in obtaining quotes. The price increase is mainly due to reduced supply following the shutdown of the Brandenburg Riva steel plant at the beginning of the year. As the plant gradually resumes production, future increased capacity may put downward pressure on prices.
The Southern European market has entered a cost-driven price reduction cycle. Affected by falling scrap steel and electricity prices, rebar prices in France and Italy fell month-on-month in May, with the upper limit of the price range in Spain also shifting downwards. Although steel mills are trying to maintain prices to protect profits, weak market demand has forced companies to accept price discounts of €5-€10 per ton. The adjustment in the Italian market is particularly significant, with domestic suppliers maintaining price competitiveness by purchasing low-priced imported billets. Wire rod prices remained stable at the beginning of the month, but the market expects a slight decline, with Italy taking the lead in reducing low-carbon wire rod capacity.
Central European steel mills are using production cuts to mitigate price decline risks. With falling raw material costs, wire rod buyers are demanding lower prices, but companies such as Moravia Steel are refusing to accept new orders before the equipment maintenance period in August-September and plan to extend the summer shutdown. Currently, distribution and end-user demand in the region is sluggish, with Polish procurement remaining low and high inventory levels in the supply chain. A Polish central bank interest rate cut (from 5.75% to 5.25%) may stimulate Construction Steel consumption, while a Czech €2.5 billion railway upgrade plan faces potential delays due to the October parliamentary elections.
Affected by uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies, end-users in Taiwan have postponed procurement, with fasteners and machinery manufacturing companies adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Distributors rely on inventory turnover to maintain operations, and domestic steel mills' price cuts have failed to effectively stimulate demand growth. South Korean rebar and wire rod prices rose briefly before falling again, with weak construction demand, public holidays, and unfavorable weather conditions all dampening market activity. Regional market participants are concerned about the low demand during the traditional peak season.
In May, US structural steel and small sections prices remained stable. Demand in the Canadian market remained weak, with small sections prices falling month-on-month. Weak end-user demand in light industry, construction, agriculture, and forestry, high financing costs suppressing private construction investment, and reduced public spending are exacerbating market pressure. Major domestic producers are responding to import competition by lowering prices to consolidate market share. Their supply of structural steel is highly dependent on imports from Asia, and the proposed revisions to Section 53 of the Customs Tariff Act may restrict this import channel.
Nordic market prices have entered a consolidation phase, with structural steel and small sections prices in Germany and the UK stabilizing in May. Falling scrap steel costs coupled with a lack of new projects are suppressing upward price momentum. Although current consumption is limited, inventories are low, and inquiries from users in the German market have slightly increased. The market anticipates that government infrastructure investment will boost demand in the medium term. While the new UK-US trade agreement has been welcomed by the UK steel industry, the removal of tariffs on US exports improves industry prospects, but the distribution sector still faces the dual challenges of compressed margins and low trading volumes.
The Southern European market appears stable on the surface but hides underlying volatility risks. Although scrap steel costs fell significantly in April and demand weakened, official quotes for structural steel and small sections remained stable in May. However, end-users strongly anticipate price reductions, questioning the actual order fulfillment capacity of steel mills. While leading Italian small sections companies maintain their quotes, shorter delivery times reflect weak demand; Spanish suppliers have high inventories, and some tariff-free quotas have been exhausted; and attempts to raise prices in the French market have been unsuccessful. While demand for structural steel is relatively stable, the manufacture of house frames is hampered by the overall downturn in the construction industry.
Central European steel mills are maintaining pricing power through proactive production cuts, with firm quotes in the Polish and Czech markets. Several companies plan to implement production cuts before the summer, with a clear tightening of regional supply. Benefiting from EU funding, increased defense spending, and lower borrowing costs, Poland's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, a significant sign of economic recovery, which is expected to drive future demand for sections. In addition, the €500 billion German infrastructure plan may create opportunities for Central European distributors, potentially increasing exports to Germany and reducing regional competition due to the return of German steel service center business.
Inventory pressure is emerging in the East Asian market. The Japanese structural steel and small sections market is under downward pressure, with small sections prices ending a six-month sideways trend and structural steel prices also ending a two-month stable trend. Data from the Japan Steel Information Center shows that structural steel inventories have increased month-on-month for four consecutive months. Although steel mill production cuts have slowed the rate of inventory growth, high inventory pressure remains in the distribution sector. Demand for structural steel in the South Korean market remains weak, with data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport showing that the total area under construction in the first quarter of 2025 shrank by nearly 30% year-on-year. The small sections market performed against the trend, with domestic steel mills successfully raising prices on the grounds of passing on scrap steel costs and signaling further price increases next month.
