2025-08-08
The steel market is showing signs of weakening due to a clear supply and demand imbalance.
The Lange Steel National Absolute Price Index for the 32nd week of 2025 (August 4-8, 2025) was 3625 yuan, unchanged from last week and down 0.1% year-on-year; among them, the Lange Steel Long Products Absolute Price Index was 3451 yuan, up 0.1% from last week and up 0.9% year-on-year; the Lange Steel Shaped Steel Absolute Price Index was 3568 yuan, down 0.4% from last week and down 3.3% year-on-year; the Lange Steel Plate Absolute Price Index was 3723 yuan, unchanged from last week and up 0.4% year-on-year; the Lange Steel Pipe Absolute Price Index was 4064 yuan, up 0.1% from last week and down 4.4% year-on-year.
Figure 1 Trend Chart of Lange Steel Price Index
The current macroeconomic imbalance between supply and demand is still developing. Anti-involution measures can alleviate the damage caused by excessive low-cost competition among enterprises in an environment of oversupply, but if demand does not continue to recover, the sustainability of the effects of these measures will be challenged; it is necessary to increase the intensity of counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy adjustments as soon as possible, significantly expand the scale of government investment in public products, and significantly increase the growth rate of infrastructure investment to drive a large increase in enterprise orders, significantly boost production investment, and warm up consumer demand, thus significantly strengthening the upward trend of China's economic recovery.
From the perspective of the black commodity futures market, most black commodities closed down, with only coking coal rising in the main contracts, but the increase was not large; the main 10 contract of rebar closed at 3213, down 23 points daily, up 10 points from last week's closing price, with a weekly settlement price of 3215, down 69 points from last week. The latest position was 1.612 million lots, a decrease of 149,000 lots from Friday last week. The warehouse volume has dropped significantly in a week, ending the large fluctuations of last week and turning to adjustments within a small range. The daily adjustment has not yet ended, and the weekly line closed with an equal-length cross star, increasing the difficulty of the game between longs and shorts. The effective key level of 3265 has not yet been reached above, and the support below is temporarily around the 3200 mark. Next, we will continue to pay attention to the strength changes at the 3204-3213 position. If the 3200 mark is broken, there may still be room for downward adjustment, and the lower level is guarded at around 3130-3150.
From the perspective of the steel spot market, on the supply side: due to the impact of the profitability of different varieties, the intensity of steel mills' capacity release has changed from strong to weak, pig iron production has slightly decreased, and the output of various varieties has slightly decreased. On the demand side: as the market hype gradually subsides, speculative demand has significantly decreased, and the seasonal off-season effect has reappeared. On the cost side: due to the steady rise in iron ore prices, stable scrap steel prices, and a slight increase in coke prices, the support of production costs has been enhanced. Therefore, the Lange Steel Research Center predicts that under the influence of the obvious game between economic supply and demand, the need for regional production restrictions to be implemented, the change of supply release from strong to weak, the reappearance of the off-season effect, and the enhanced support of costs, the domestic steel market next week (August 11-15, 2025) may fluctuate and weaken.
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