2025-08-08
The push to export steel continues to intensify.
After 2025, China's steel exports continued to grow strongly. The latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that from January to July 2025, China exported 67.983 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%; among them, steel exports in July reached 9.836 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, with a significant increase in growth. Based on this, it is estimated that the annual steel export volume will be around 100 million tons, maintaining a large scale.
Indirect steel exports during the same period were also strong. Customs data shows that in the first seven months, China's exports of electromechanical products reached 9.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, accounting for 60% of total exports, an increase of more than one percentage point compared to the same period last year; among them, exports of high-end equipment that consumes a lot of steel increased by more than 20% year-on-year; in the first seven months of this year, China's automobile exports increased by 10.9% year-on-year.
For some time, trade protectionism has been on the rise in various countries around the world, especially the extreme pressure from the Trump administration in the United States, launching a "tariff war," which has created great uncertainty in global steel trade and prospects. However, in this severely deteriorating export trade environment, China's steel exports (including indirect steel exports, hereinafter the same) have been able to achieve significant growth against the trend, constantly setting new historical highs. One important driving force is the "tariff war" of the Trump administration in the United States, and the great uncertainty in global steel trade and prospects caused by it, which has instead stimulated an unprecedented "rush for exports" among countries around the world, triggering a "forward demand" effect for Chinese steel on a global scale. Moreover, due to the several extensions of the effective period of the US Trump administration's "high tariffs," the time for "rush for exports" has also been extended, delaying the forward effect of China's steel export demand. Whether it is direct export or indirect export, it is the so-called "what brought you here will also bring you down".
The forward shift of export demand caused by the "rush for exports" directly expanded China's current total steel demand, becoming a powerful engine for the growth of China's total steel demand this year. It is precisely because of this that the current supply and demand relationship of Chinese steel has improved to a certain extent, and this has become an important factor in the significant increase in profits of Chinese steel enterprises in the first half of this year. In the first half of this year, the total profit of key steel enterprises under the China Iron and Steel Association reached 59.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.26%.
It should be noted that China's rush for steel exports and the forward shift of external steel demand for a period of time are, in a sense, merely a "time-space conversion" of the predetermined demand. In other words, the current rush for exports and the "forward shift of external demand" mean that exports will weaken in the future, meaning that the time to digest the steel stockpiled by the rush for exports. Therefore, with the arrival of the actual implementation deadline of high tariff barriers, the rush for exports effect will sharply decline. In the future, China's steel exports, including both direct and indirect exports, will face great downward risks. At that time, the volume and growth rate of steel exports may fall sharply, and there is even a possibility of negative growth in some months. Affected by this, the domestic steel market supply and demand relationship, price trend, and enterprise profitability will all suffer certain negative impacts. (Original article by Lange expert Chen Kexin, please indicate the source when reprinting)
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