Experts say the city-October 16

My steel:On the supply side, although the five major steel varieties are currently reduced, but the reduction space is lower than expected, iron is still at a relatively high level, supply pressure will become more prominent. From the perspective of inventory and demand, the performance of machinery, automobiles, home appliances, construction and other industries is slightly differentiated, but the overall degree of prosperity is weak. Therefore, in the current situation where supply is at a relatively low level, inventory pressure is temporarily low. However, with the seasonal decline in demand, and the supply of production does not meet expectations, the later fundamental contradictions will accelerate the intensification. On the whole, there is no obvious positive macro market at home and abroad, market sentiment is not good, but the silver ten demand performance is still relatively supported, speculative sentiment appears, it is expected this week (2023.10.16-10.20) overall steel prices or oversold rebound expectations.

The Steel House:The recent domestic steel market has both high production, weak demand pressure, and high cost support. First, the domestic steel supply is at a high level, the steel home survey of the blast furnace operating rate continued to maintain at more than 90%, China Steel Association statistics in early October key steel enterprises crude steel average daily 2.083 million tons, an increase of 0.8. Second, the downstream demand is generally weak. The steel turnover surveyed by the steel house is lower than that before the festival, and the inventory decline is not obvious. Third, the steel production cost is facing upward pressure. After the festival, coke enterprises mentioned the third round of price increase. The port mine inventory is at a low level in the past seven years. Iron ore prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. High costs have certain support for steel prices. It is expected that this week (2023.10.16-10.20) domestic steel market prices are expected to gradually stabilize.

Lange:At present, the external environment has become more complex and severe, geopolitical conflicts have resumed, U.S. inflation is still strong, European and American interest rate hikes are expected, and the global economy is still under pressure; the domestic economy is facing multiple difficulties and challenges, but my country adheres to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability. The overall economic recovery is improving, the endogenous power continues to increase, and high-quality development is steadily advancing, but we must continue to vigorously strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, accelerate the pace of comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction, significantly increase the leading role of government investment in the investment of the whole society, promote the accelerated recovery of enterprise production, the accelerated improvement of the employment situation, and the accelerated activation of consumer demand, and strive to strengthen the foundation for a sustainable economic recovery. In the short term, the domestic steel market will present a pattern of "renewed geopolitical conflicts, suspense expectations of interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States, multiple challenges in the domestic economy, strengthening infrastructure construction, speeding up the implementation of policies, speeding up the process of limiting production and production, and releasing demand less than expected. From the supply side, due to large losses, steel mills have accelerated the process of limiting production and reducing production, the willingness to release production capacity has weakened significantly, and the short-term supply side will show a continuous decline. From the demand side, the "Silver Ten" start steel market demand recovery is slow, the project construction progress is not as expected, although the decline in steel prices has aroused the release of demand in some regions, but the release of terminal demand is not satisfactory. From the cost side, iron ore and scrap prices fluctuated and declined, and coke prices remained stable, making cost support weaker. According to the Lange steel weekly price forecast model, this week (2023.10.16-10.20) the domestic steel market will be in the policy landing effect, accelerated production reduction process, insufficient demand release, cost support weakening and other factors under the combined influence of the market, showing a volatile decline.

Tang and Song:This week due to the current low price of steel futures, market price risk significantly released, trade speculative demand or will be improved, terminal low price increase or increase, the overall demand or performance is basically stable. From the supply side, long-process steel enterprises continue to lose money, coupled with the "one road and one belt" meeting held, steel enterprises production line production reduction is expected to increase, blast furnace reduction, shutdown or obvious increase, pig iron production or now a relatively large decline. The steel market or the overall situation of supply and demand reduction is stable. The main varieties of social inventory, total inventory or a small increase, decline. With the actual reduction of steel production lines, the increase in production, supply reduction is expected to further strengthen, the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market to ease, especially the strong support of raw fuel, steel enterprises to increase losses, supply-side reduction, low prices, market prices continue to increase downward resistance. Although the conditions for stabilization are gradually available, but the market recovery conditions still need steel enterprises to expand production cuts to consolidate, is expected to short-term black period in stock prices or performance shock adjustment. Continue to pay attention to the pressure near the 3650 and 3690.

youfa group han weidong:The current market has been in a shock of top and bottom. From the perspective of the average price of strip steel, it is currently in a low-price area. In the second half of last year, the average monthly price was 3700 yuan, and in the first half of this year, it was 3670 yuan. The average price this month is about 3700 yuan. The bottom support of the current market is mainly policy bottom, cost bottom, average price bottom, limited production bottom and other multiple factors. But the top factor of market suppression has led to the imagination of upside, mainly due to large production, weak demand and approaching winter storage. The future market out of the low price zone mainly observes two factors: production cuts and the Mandarin Commodity Index (its rise will lead to a rise in black goods). The current strategy is to operate normally. If the market falls sharply, the loss of steel mills can never be sustained when the opportunity is treated. If there is a large rise, the inventory will be gradually reduced and winter will enter.