Experts say the city-August 19

My steel:On the supply side, the supply of large steel varieties on Friday was 7.7798 million tons, down 55300 tons on a week-on-week basis, down 0.7 percent, narrowing from last week's 7.2 percent decline. Due to the continuous pressure on the demand for long products and plates in the early period, the profits of steel mills continued to narrow, resulting in the maintenance of production reduction. However, with the reduction of production, the profit decline of steel mills weakened, so the fastest period of production reduction of steel mills may have passed. Last Friday, the total inventory of large steel was 17 million tons, down 226300 tons on a weekly basis, a decrease of 1.3 percent. Total inventories of large varieties continued to fall on Friday, but the decline narrowed slightly from last week. However, the change of inventory structure has been differentiated, the decline of the factory warehouse narrowed but the decline of the social warehouse has expanded, the decline of the factory warehouse narrowed mainly by the continuous decline in production, and the expansion of the decline of the social warehouse is mainly the result of the initiative to go to the warehouse (price reduction promotion). On the consumption side, the apparent consumption of large varieties was 8.0061 million tons last Friday, down 1.0 percent month-on-month: building materials consumption increased by 3.8 percent, plate consumption fell 3.4 percent. Last Friday, the consumption performance of building materials and plates among large steel products was different. On the one hand, the steady recovery of building materials consumption was supported by the marginal recovery of downstream demand, and on the other hand, there was some bottom-hunting behavior in the market at low prices. On the other hand, the decline in demand for plates is mainly due to the market expectation that prices will fall further and wait for the bottom to be copied. In addition, overseas demand is more sensitive to the current prices, and the price drop. Overall, last Friday's big steel supply and demand double-dip, inventory continued to de-de-stocking, the fundamentals gradually marginal improvement. On the supply side, with the sharp reduction in production in the early stage, the decline in profits of steel mills has slowed down and the expectation of resumption of production has risen slightly. Therefore, the output of steel mills may stabilize in the later stage, but the recovery space still needs to pay attention to the changes in profits. In the short term, the space for steel mills to resume production in the future is relatively limited. On the demand side, the demand for building materials may maintain a slight recovery, at the same time, the demand for the peak season in September is expected to come, which will drive the demand for building materials to pick up marginally, but the demand growth space also needs to observe the downstream construction unit capital return situation; In addition, the demand for plates may also bottom out and stabilize. As the liquidity of plates is stronger than that of building materials, only the price falls to a reasonable position and the demand release can still be seen. Therefore, in terms of the total demand for the five major steel products, further significant decline in space temporarily or difficult to see; inventory, building materials inventory or maintain the state of de-stocking, mainly due to the old national standard rebar ratio is still high, so the market still maintains the initiative to go to the library to digest the old standard resources. And the plate inventory short-term or maintain the state of continuing to accumulate, contradictions are still continuing to accumulate. On the whole, the fundamentals of building materials are gradually improving, and there is still some pressure on the plate, so for steel prices, there may still be some pressure in the short term.
 
 

The Steel House:Last week, the domestic steel market prices fell sharply, especially hot-rolled coils and medium and heavy plates, which were mainly due to weak demand and weak expectations. The recent positive factors are: first, the steel output in July decreased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and the production reduction of steel mills was gradually implemented, but the current production reduction is mainly concentrated on short-process and long-process construction steel, and the plate output is still relatively high; Second, the issuance of new special bonds and special treasury bonds has accelerated. In early August, the issuance of new special bonds was 280 billion yuan, close to the monthly level of last month. In addition, the impact of seasonal demand is weak, A high probability event when demand picks up later. The unfavorable factors are: first, the current actual demand is weak. In July, the growth rate of industrial production and investment both fell back, and the growth rate of consumption was weak. In particular, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline, and the actual landing progress of the projects started in the early stage was relatively slow. Second, the plate inventory continued to run at a high level, especially the hot-rolled coils continued to increase, and the inventory pressure increased. Third, iron ore and coal coke prices. The current market is showing a trend of weak supply and demand, lower costs and a rebound in demand expectations. It is expected that the decline in domestic steel market prices will gradually slow down this week.

Lange:In July, in the face of the complex and severe domestic and foreign environment, as well as the disturbances caused by short-term factors such as domestic heavy rains, floods, and extreme high temperatures, under the effect of the implementation of macro policies and the joint efforts of all parties, production demand continued to recover and employment prices The overall stability, the cultivation and growth of new kinetic energy, and the overall stable and steady economic operation continued the development trend. At the same time, we must also see that the external environment is unstable and uncertain, the domestic effective demand is insufficient, the economic operation is divided, some problems in development and transformation are still emerging, and the foundation for economic recovery needs to be further consolidated. Reform is the driving force to promote stable growth, adjust structure, prevent risks, and consolidate and strengthen the economic recovery. Judging from the black futures market, the main thread closed 3078, down 199 points from last week's closing price 3277, and the weekly settlement price 3146, down 171 points from last week's settlement price 3317. The latest position was 1.872 million hands, 184000 hands less than last Friday's 2.056 million hands. From a technical point of view, the weekly shape is weak, and the weekly negative line has been closed since May. The market is still unstable, preventing the risk of further decline. Lower support 3059, 3012, 2985, 2950. Upper pressure 3139, 3170, 3207. From the point of view of the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to the increasing pressure on the loss of steel mills varieties, the release of production capacity continued to contract, iron production continued to decline slightly, while the production of varieties showed mixed performance. Demand side: due to seasonal weather, market transactions continue to remain low, the release of end demand is insufficient. Cost side: As the prices of iron ore, scrap and coke have fallen sharply, the support for production costs has weakened rapidly, creating a significant negative cost feedback effect. Therefore, Lange Steel Research Center expects (2024.8.19-8.23) the domestic steel market will be expected to remain in the peak season, supply continues to contract, transactions remain low, the rapid weakening of costs under the influence of the domestic steel market or will show a sustained downward market.

Tang and Song:This week, the high temperature in the north subsided and the high temperature in the south weakened. Although the country is in a rainy period, the most difficult period of high temperature and heat is basically over. The rigid demand for construction, processing and manufacturing terminals may maintain the current level. The current steel price is at a low level in the past 7 years, and the resistance of ore prices has gradually increased. Speculative demand for market trade may increase slightly, and overall steel demand may be low and stable. From the supply side, the losses of steel enterprises continue to increase, steel mills maintenance, production reduction or increase, long-process production line starts continue to decline, short-process starts steadily decreased. Steel social inventory or maintain a downward trend, the north and south regions, the variety of inventory rise and fall is different. With the increasing power of independent production reduction of steel enterprises and the gradual implementation of policy restrictions, it is difficult for raw and fuel prices to rebound and rise. However, at present, the prices of iron ore and coke are basically at a relatively low level, the possibility of a sharp decline in steel costs is reduced, and the support at the bottom of steel prices is gradually strengthened. From August 19, the old national standard thread can not register warehouse receipts, disk pressure or reduce. Although with the gradual end of the off-season demand, the fundamentals of the steel market have improved, but the market sentiment is still sluggish, the actual sentiment trading affects the market composition is too large, steel prices rebound is weak, it is expected that this week's black period in stock market shock adjustment operation probability is high. The period snail issued a focus on 3000 support, above the focus on 3180, 3200 pressure.

youfa group han weidong:The National Bureau of Statistics produced 2.6755 million tons of crude steel per day in July and 3.0537 million tons in June. The month-on-month decline was 12%, while the key steel enterprises of the China Steel Association decreased by 6% month-on-month. It means that "digital level control" is being carried out from top to bottom, the same as last year. Only production cuts due to steel mill losses are real. As a result, this year's large-scale energy saving, carbon reduction and production restriction will be discounted unless it is really seen. At present, the main action may be delayed until the fourth quarter autumn and winter season production restrictions. If the administrative production limit is not strictly enforced, what will be the result? That is, the probability of high prices caused by mismatches is small. The Mandarin Commodity Index has hit another record low these days, reflecting pessimistic expectations for the overall commodity system. The biggest surprise since August was a sharp drop in demand of about 15% year-on-year. This is already the first quarter, June, late July, and August for the fourth time. Communicate with Song Zong of the Iron and Steel Network of Tang and Song Dynasties, from the analysis of downstream industries, we can't find where the demand has gone. In the later period, the market focuses on two indicators: the continuous year-on-year growth of demand and the steady rebound of the Mandarin Commodity Index. One is that the fundamentals are getting better, and the other is that the market sentiment is getting better. These can bring about a rebound in steel prices. At present, steel mills and traders are suffering serious losses. The main contradiction in the market has shifted from operating difficulties to not making money. The risk of survival is high. Everyone should be careful!