Experts say the city-August 26

My steel:On the supply side, the supply of large steel varieties on Friday was 7.7894 million tons, up 9600 tons or 0.1 percent from the previous week. On Friday, the output of large steel varieties, except hot-rolled and cold-rolled, decreased month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of large steel on Friday was 16.4186 million tons, down 581400 tons, or 3.42 percent, from the previous week. On Friday, the total inventory of large varieties showed a decline in the week-on-week: the five major material factories in addition to the wire outer peripheral month-on-month decline, of which the thread increase is more obvious. The overall weekly decline in the five major material libraries was mainly due to the contribution of building materials. On the consumption side, the weekly consumption of large varieties on Friday was 8.3708 million tons, up 4.6 percent month-on-month, including building materials consumption fell 0.5 percent month-on-month, sheet consumption rose 7.3 percent month-on-month. On Friday, the apparent consumption of large varieties rose more obviously month-on-month, and the contradiction between supply and demand eased. Although the market sentiment has been released for in stock transactions after the recovery, and the digestion rhythm of the new and old national standard stocks for threads is orderly, it still takes time to completely switch. However, from the hot roll, although the high supply in the early stage put pressure on the downstream, the data performed well last week, especially after the increase in production, the stocks were still de-stocked. According to the research results, it was mainly caused by the large number of resources in transit, and the demand for the demand, need to observe the continuity of the performance of the follow-up data, if this week's data turn worse, it is difficult to constitute the conditions of market reversal, steel prices are expected to run in a narrow range in the short term.
 
 

The Steel House:Last week, the domestic steel market prices generally stopped falling and rebounded, but they have obvious characteristics. First, futures varieties are stronger than non-futures varieties, that is, the rebound of rebar and hot-rolled coils is obviously better than that of medium and heavy plates and cold-rolled varieties. It shows that the current in stock market is greatly affected by the futures market; second, the rebound of rebar is stronger than that of hot-rolled coils, which is mainly related to the larger production reduction of construction steel mills, rebar production in July, whether year-on-year or month-on-month, the decline was greater than that of other varieties. Judging from the recent market, favorable factors have gradually increased. First, steel mills are still losing money, and the overall supply is shrinking, with limited momentum for continued decline. Second, the removal of steel products to the warehouse is accelerated. At present, both small and medium-sized traders and terminals are mostly operating with low inventory. Once the market stabilizes or improves, the release of replenishment demand will drive the recovery of demand. Third, the impact of seasonal off-season demand is weakened, and the issuance of new special bonds is accelerated, demand growth is expected to strengthen. Unfavorable factors, one is the plate inventory is still high, once the rebound is blocked, the transaction will fall again, the second is the cost side continues to decline, coking coal prices downward pressure, iron ore in high inventory is difficult to significantly rebound, the cost continues to decline is more likely. Overall, it is expected that the market price of construction steel is expected to continue to run strongly this week, and the plate is still facing greater pressure.

Lange:At present, China's economic operation has continued the overall stable and steady development trend. It is still necessary to expand domestic demand more vigorously, focus on boosting consumption, and take targeted measures to smooth the economic cycle; to promote consumption, we must focus on growth and driving. In areas with strong sex, accelerate the expansion and quality of service consumption, effectively promote bulk consumption, formulate differentiated support policies according to the needs of different groups, and fully release consumption potential; to expand investment, we should give full play to the leading role of government investment, implement various policies to support private investment, expand the field, scale and proportion of local government special bonds used as capital, and pry more extensive social investment; we should develop new quality productivity according to local conditions, support the promotion and application of new technologies and new products, iterative upgrading, further promote digital transformation, and encourage local governments to build advantageous industries based on their characteristics. From the black futures market, the weekly settlement price 3162, 3146 16 points higher than last Friday's settlement price. The latest position is 1.6 million hands, 270000 hands lower than last Friday's 1.87 million. From the weekly pattern, the trend is still in the short side, last week prices first rose and then suppressed, the first wave of rebound was temporarily suppressed. This week, the lower part will focus on several points, namely, the starting position of the rebound signal near 3130, the 3100 pass, and the lower 3067-3077 positions. These positions are not broken and cannot form a new round of decline, thus continuing the shock adjustment. The upper pressure focuses on the points of 3188, 3207 and 3237, and once again enters the rebound route, at least standing up to the 3200 pass. From the steel in stock market point of view, the supply side: due to the weakness of the steel market, steel mills varieties of loss pressure began to weaken, capacity release efforts began to turn strong, iron production rebounded slightly, while varieties of production has declined. Demand side: as the traditional peak season is coming, market transactions began to gradually pick up, peak season demand release is expected to continue to strengthen, the market demand for hoarding increased. Cost side: due to the small shock in iron ore prices, the steady rise in scrap prices and the small decline in coke prices, making production costs support toughness again. Therefore, Lange Steel Research Center expects (2024.8.26-8.30) the domestic steel market will be in the traditional peak season is coming, steel supply began to strengthen, market transactions have picked up, cost support toughness re-emergence, the domestic steel market or will show a shock rebound market.

Tang and Song:This week's off-season effect continues to weaken, construction, processing and manufacturing terminal rigid demand continues to remain low, market trade speculation is still cautious, demand growth or limited, overall steel demand or performance low stability. From the supply side, with the coke price in the fifth round of landing and still expected to raise and lower, steel prices have rebounded, the loss of steel enterprises has decreased, steel mills maintenance, production reduction can continue to increase remains to be seen, long process production line start or low stable, short process start low stable; The steel market as a whole is in a state of "low supply and demand stability. Steel social inventory or small rise and fall, the north and south regions, the variety of inventory rise and fall is different.

Recently, steel enterprises independent production reduction, maintenance is increasing, supply contraction is obvious, the disk is expected to negative feedback undervaluation trading ended, the period in stock prices appeared to stop falling rebound. Although the market expects the negative feedback transaction to come to an end, the real negative feedback is not yet fully over, coke is still expected to raise and lower, and steel demand has not yet improved significantly. Market mentality remains cautious. The short-term market will enter a period of observation of whether demand will improve and whether supply will remain low. It is expected that this week's black period in stock market volatility adjustment operation probability is high. The existence of step-by-step pressure above futures is concerned with 3220 and 3250 pressure, only a breakthrough 3250 can form a further space breakthrough, below the focus on 3140/3120 near support.

youfa group han weidong:From this week's inventory announced by several major steel websites, the rate of decline has accelerated by 60-1 million tons. In recent days, demand has increased significantly for several consecutive days. From the data point of view, the relationship between supply and demand in the steel industry has "temporarily" undergone fundamental changes. This is a solid foundation for the later price rebound. As long as the industry does not resume production quickly, the power of this rebound will always exist! Due to the financialization of the steel industry, the price rebound was greatly affected by the Wenhua Commodity Index, and this index was more affected by macro confidence. The index did not fall below the lowest value of last year and began to rebound, but the intensity was still small. Although market prices are still recurring, the worst phase of the steel industry is over (high production, poor demand, worst losses, systemic commodity declines). The strength of the late rebound depends on a number of factors: whether demand has shifted from negative growth to positive growth. Steel mill maintenance production reduction continues to decrease. The strength of the rebound in commodities. The end of the rebound is concerned about the steel mills to stop cutting production and increase production, the industry's supply and demand contradiction is always the basis, or the price of a rebound more will also end the rebound. Autumn is crisp, tea!