Experts say the city-September 2

My steel:On the supply side, 7.7866 million tons of large steel varieties were supplied on Friday, down 2800 tons, or 0.04 percent, from the previous week. Long-process steel mills increased production slightly, while electric furnace mills continued the trend of production cuts, weakening the mood of the conversion of old and new national standards, and on Friday the total inventory of large steel was 15.6295 million tons, down 789200 tons on a weekly basis, a decrease of 4.81 percent. On Friday, the total inventory of large varieties decreased, the factory warehouse decreased by 271200 tons, a decrease of 6.06 percent, and the social warehouse decreased by 518000 tons, a decrease of 4.34 percent. On the consumption side, the weekly consumption of large varieties on Friday was 8.5758 million tons, an increase of 205100 tons on a weekly basis, an increase of 2.5 percent, of which building materials consumption increased by 10.74 percent month-on-month, sheet consumption fell by 1.8 percent. On Friday, large varieties of building materials and sheet consumption rose and fell, of which building materials consumption increased significantly. Generally speaking, from the data of the five major varieties, the overall pattern of supply reduction and demand increase, inventory reduction is obvious, and the fundamentals are gradually improving. On the supply side, the mood for the conversion of new and old threads has weakened, the old national standard threads have been removed smoothly, some steel mills have resumed production one after another, the supply has increased, but the increase is limited, and the overall output of steel has decreased. On the demand side, according to the 100-year construction survey, as of August 27, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 62%, up 0.02 percentage points from the previous week. The marginal improvement of capital availability rate is mainly supported by the improvement, and with the weather improving, the follow-up demand gradually marginal improvement, inventory, production decreased significantly, demand increased, so inventory decline, the follow-up inventory continues to be down the state. On the whole, the macro interest rate cut signal strengthened, the macro driving force strengthened, superimposed on the gradual improvement of steel fundamentals, it is expected that short-term steel prices may continue to rebound.
 
 

The Steel House:Last week, the domestic steel market prices continued to rebound, the second half of the week gradually slowed down. Judging from the recent market, favorable factors have gradually increased. First, steel mills continue to reduce production, and the output of crude steel and steel products of key steel enterprises in the first and middle of the year continues to drop sharply compared with the same period last year. Some rolling mills in Tangshan will implement a secondary orange warning. Combined with the continuous decline in the operating rate of blast furnaces and electric furnaces, the output of steel mills is likely to continue to shrink. Second, the market transactions are becoming more active and the decline. The average trading volume of major steel varieties rebounded for two consecutive weeks on Sunday, steel inventories fell for four consecutive weeks, and the stock rate accelerated, the actual demand recovery and the increase in demand for replenishment is the main factor. Third, the issuance of new special bonds to speed up, infrastructure investment growth is expected to stabilize and rebound. The unfavorable factors are mainly in the downward shift of the center of gravity of the steel mill's cost, the uncertainty of the steel mill's production reduction is increased, and the plate inventory is still high, and there is a certain pressure to go to the warehouse. It is expected that the domestic steel market prices will continue to rebound mainly in shock this week.

Lange:At present, China's economic operation has continued the overall stable and steady development trend. It is still necessary to expand domestic demand more vigorously, focus on boosting consumption, and take targeted measures to smooth the economic cycle; it is necessary to focus on the strategic focus and priority direction of quasi-reform, Reasonably arrange the sequence, rhythm and timing of reform measures; it is necessary to more closely integrate reforms with economic and social development, and promote the accelerated implementation of landmark reform measures; it is necessary to strengthen the integration of reform systems, enhance the consistency of reform policy orientation, take the initiative to assess the impact on economic and social development, and form a joint force for reform and development.From the black futures disk, the thread main 10 contracts closed 3222, up 68 points from last week's 3154, the weekly settlement price 3243, up 81 points from last week's settlement price 3162, the current position 1.2 million lots, has been lower than the 01 contract position. The intraday reduction of positions reached 100000 hands, the total position compared to last Friday's reduction of 600000 hands. The main shift accelerated significantly last week and is expected to complete the main contract rotation this week. Thread after two rebounds, the current resistance fell slightly. After two weeks of rising, it did not rise back to the weekly decline that began on August 12. The week below focus on 3200, 3154 two levels, the current weekly pattern of all back to last week's gains are not likely. From the point of view of the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to the first rise and then fall in the steel market, the loss pressure of steel mills is still in place, the release of production capacity has weakened again, the output of molten iron has declined slightly, while the output of varieties has increased. Demand side: the traditional peak season is approaching, the demand for stock is gradually rising, the market turnover continues to improve, but the demand release is not as strong as expected. Cost side: due to the small rise in iron ore prices, the steady rise in scrap prices, coke prices fell sharply, making production costs support to maintain toughness. Therefore, Lange Steel Research Center expects (2024.9.2-9.6) the domestic steel market will be in the traditional peak season is expected to strengthen, steel mill supply weakened again, market transactions continue to improve, cost support to maintain toughness under the influence of the domestic steel market or will show a small shock up market.

Tang and Song:This week the country gradually entered the "golden autumn" season, infrastructure, real estate construction projects construction of the most difficult period of basic end, favorable period gradually arrived, the overall steel demand release into a period of gradual growth. From the supply side, with the rebound in steel prices, steel enterprises to reduce the magnitude of losses, coupled with the end of some steel enterprises maintenance, long process production line to start or slightly rebounded. Steel social inventory or small rise and fall, the north and south regions, the variety of inventory rise and fall is different. Recent losses of steel enterprises gradually reduced, steel enterprises to resume production is expected to gradually strengthen, the demand for raw fuel or increase, raw fuel prices are easy to rise and fall, steel price cost support role strengthened. Although the market will enter the "Golden Nine" period, demand is expected to pick up seasonally. However, driven by the lack of new momentum in the market, the overall release of demand is slow. Instead, the market has increased concerns about supply recovery and renewed pressure on prices, and market operations are generally cautious. Futures rise in stock, futures valuation early trading end, coupled with futures shift positions for the month, speculative funds to reduce positions, increasing the wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that this week's steel price shock adjustment probability is large. In the short term, we still need to pay attention to the degree of demand release and new stimulus policies. The snail 10 contract focuses on 3290 pressure above and support near the 3160 below.

youfa group han weidong:Steel inventory data on several major websites accelerated from last week, reflecting the continued improvement in supply and demand. Market prices on a platform after the shock run. The best state of the market is not a sharp rise, but a shock rise in hesitation, which can avoid many steel enterprises to quickly resume production and increase production. At present, the enthusiasm of steel enterprises to resume production and increase production will not be great. One is that enterprises are still losing money. The other is that they will worry about the implementation of energy saving and carbon reduction and production reduction policies in autumn and winter. Steel mills will wait and see before the end of September. The third is that they are worried about the price falling again. It is difficult to predict whether the market demand will improve, but the output of steel mills can be observed, and everyone is watching it, because only low output operation in the later stage will the market run healthily. If the demand can enter the peak season mode in the later period, it will push the price up further. If the Wenhua index continues to rise, it will also drive the price of steel up. If there is an administrative production restriction, it will be even more ideal. If none of the above items are available, the price will only rise when the inventory drops to a low level and demand exceeds supply. Steady management, a good holiday!