Experts say the city-September 16

My steel:On the supply side, the supply of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.0078 million tons, down 3900 tons from the previous week, down 0.05 percent, narrowing from last week's 2.9 percent increase. With the previous steel mills after a sharp reduction in production, supply pressure is obviously digested, profits are gradually repaired, which also drives the steel mills to resume production; on Friday, the total inventory of large steel was 14.1871 million tons, down 904900 tons on a weekly basis, a decrease of 6.0 percent. Total inventories of large varieties continued to fall on Friday, and the decline in inventories expanded month-on-month, further easing the pressure on high steel inventories and supporting market optimism. On the consumption side, the apparent consumption of large varieties was 8.9127 million tons on Friday, up 4.3 percent month-on-month: building materials consumption increased by 8.1 percent, plate consumption increased by 2.1 percent. On Friday, the consumption of building materials and plates in the large steel varieties showed a rebound, the peak season stage, downstream consumption in the process of marginal improvement, and thus stimulate the growth of steel consumption. Overall, the supply of the five major varieties of steel on Friday did not change much, the rebound in demand accelerated de-stocking, the fundamentals further improved to the good. On the supply side, steel mills still have profits from point to point at present, and the expectation of resuming production for long-and short-process steel mills is still maintained, but the speed of resuming production in the later period may decline, because the market may suppress the profits of steel mills to limit the rapid resumption of production. On the demand side, due to the rapid recovery of building materials last week, this week's watch may show a pullback. However, supported by peak season factors, the market may start to speculation, therefore, the building materials table needs to be temporarily still resilient; in addition, the demand for plate or will maintain a small growth, driven by the peak season, downstream factories have just need to fill the library behavior, which forms support for the demand for hot rolls. Therefore, in terms of the total demand of the five major steel products, under the support of the peak season, the table demand still has a certain degree of toughness; inventory, the total inventory of the five major steel products to the warehouse or continue to maintain, but later with the gradual recovery of production, the degree of inventory de-stocking will gradually slow down, and contradictions slowly accumulate. On the whole, driven by the peak season, the overall steel fundamentals are strong, and short-term improvements will support prices.

The Steel House:Last week, the domestic steel market prices stopped falling and rebounded. Among them, rebar and hot-rolled coils increased significantly, reflecting the greater impact of futures on the in stock market. At present, the positive factors in the market are: first, the traditional peak season of demand, and the seasonal rebound of downstream demand; second, the issuance of special bonds is accelerated, and infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize; third, steel exports return to the 9.5 million level again, boosting market confidence; fourth, market transactions tend to be active, the turnover of rebar and medium and heavy plate has been higher than that of the same period last year, and steel inventories continue to decline. Unfavorable factors, one is that the plate inventory pressure is still at the highest level in the same period in the past six years, the second is the current cost measurement, short-process enterprises have been profitable, some enterprises began to resume production, electric furnace operating rate for two consecutive weeks slightly rebounded. Overall, it is expected that the domestic steel market prices this week will continue to be dominated by strong shocks. Focus on changes in steel mill production, inventory and infrastructure investment.

Lange:Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has implemented relatively large monetary policy adjustments three times to strongly support the economic recovery. China's monetary policy will continue to focus on me and give priority to supporting domestic economic development. First, in terms of aggregate, we will increase counter-cyclical adjustment, flexibly use a variety of monetary policy tools, maintain a reasonable growth in the total amount of money and credit, promote a steady decline in the cost of comprehensive social financing, and support the consolidation and enhancement of the economic recovery. Second, in terms of structure, we will continue to guide financial institutions to increase credit support for key areas and weak links, with key areas such as "five major articles", "two heavy" and "two new" as important work, so as to meet reasonable consumer financing needs in a more targeted manner. From the black futures disk, the main thread 01 closed 3190, up 32 in a single day, up 139 points compared with last week's closing price 3051, the weekly settlement price 3110, 15 points lower than last week's settlement price 3125. The latest position 1.8 million hands, affected by the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, a one-day reduction of 52000 hands, but compared with last Friday's position increased by 80000 hands. From a technical point of view, the weekly line is still not fully back to the opening price of 3229 last week. If it strengthens this week, it will at least pass this mark first. Due to the limited opening trading time this week, only 3 days, the risk of falling back is not great. Below the defensive 3150 pass. In theory, as long as the 3150 stand firm, there is still room for upward rebound. From the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to the peak season expectations and the impact of improved profits of some varieties, capacity release continued to strengthen, iron production increased slightly, while variety production decreased slightly. Demand side: the traditional construction season is gradually unfolding, market transactions are gradually picking up, and the demand for pre-holiday stocking is also gradually rising, but the southern region may still be affected by typhoons, and market transactions may be repeated. Cost side: As iron ore prices rose slightly, scrap prices fell steadily, coke prices fell slightly, making production cost support again showing toughness. Therefore, Lange Steel Research Center expects (2024.9.16-9.20) that the domestic steel market will be in the traditional construction peak season expectations, steel mill supply continues to strengthen, market transactions gradually pick up, cost support strength to reproduce the impact of toughness, the domestic steel market or will show a volatile rise in the market.

Tang and Song:This week into the second half of September, infrastructure, real estate construction projects ushered in a good period of time, downstream enterprises to replenish the stock and trade speculative demand or continue to increase, steel rigid demand continued to release. Considering that this week coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, overall steel demand continues to maintain a small growth state but incremental or limited. From the supply side, with the recovery of steel prices, the loss of steel enterprises decreased, superimposed on the end of some steel enterprises maintenance, long-process production line started or slightly increased. Steel social inventory or continue to decline slightly, the north and south regions, the variety of inventory increases and decreases are different. On balance, the Fed's rate cut is largely certain, and the peripheral macro hype has come to an end. This week's release of domestic economic data for August is expected to be difficult to boost the market, and there is still a certain gap between steel turnover and peak season demand. The market is cautious about the continued release of demand. However, the current market into the downstream demand season, demand is still expected to increase. Overall in the fundamental supply and demand contradiction is not big situation and "11" still exist under the expectation of replenishment, this week's steel price shock strong operation probability is large. Period snail below focus on the 3130 near the support, above focus on the 3230 area pressure, breakthrough to see 3320.

youfa group han weidong:The three months in the second half of the year have a common feature. Half of the monthly demand is very good and half is very bad. In the end, the demand for the whole month decreased year on year. The difference is that the first half of the month is probably good or bad. This led to the sharp fluctuations in the market within a month, which made everyone very unhappy. The rapid decline in inventories for several weeks eased the supply-demand contradiction in the industry, and black began to rebound as the Mandarin Commodity Index rebounded. The opportunity of rebound is not worth speculation. We should adjust the inventory through rebound and peak season to make up for the losses in the early period and prepare for the uncertain market in the future, because the oversupply in the steel industry cannot be changed, and there is no news of the implementation of the production restriction policy by this time. Even if there is, it will not be very strict. The current output has been able to complete the whole year's task! Later, we will continue to pay attention to the resumption of production of steel mills. If the production exceeds 100000 tons per day, there will be a surplus again. If the demand does not decline year-on-year for the whole month, it will be good. At the same time, we will pay attention to the Mandarin Commodity Index. As long as it continues to rebound, black will be safe. If it falls, black will follow. But there is no need to panic too much. The current prices, including the prices of many commodities, are already at a very low level and in a state of serious losses, which is very resilient. Market changes are no longer the most important thing at present, and the business model that enables enterprises to survive and resist risks is also the most important. I wish my friends a happy Mid-Autumn Festival! Have some tea!