Experts say the city-September 9

My steel:On the supply side, the supply of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.0117 million tons, up 225100 tons or 2.9 percent from the previous week. On Friday, the output of large steel varieties in addition to the medium-thick plate of the rest of the varieties of production have increased, the core driver is, due to the steel mill costs have moved down, profits have recovered, some high, electric furnace enterprises to resume production. On the inventory side, the total inventory of large steel on Friday was 15.0921 million tons, down 537400 tons or 3.4 percent from the previous week. On Friday, the total inventory of large varieties, except for hot-rolled plate rolls, decreased: the weekly decline in the factory library, mainly from the contribution of threads. The weekly decline in the social library was also mainly due to thread contributions. On the consumption side, the weekly consumption of large varieties on Friday was 8.5492 million tons, down 2.66 percent month-on-month, including building materials consumption fell 1.3 percent month-on-month, sheet consumption increased 0.3 percent month-on-month. On Friday, the apparent consumption of large varieties showed a decline in building materials and an increase in plate, due to the continued decline in building materials production but the pressure to go to the warehouse has appeared and plate production continues to rise. Overall, although the current steel mills have resumed production, but the resumption of production progress is still slow, the overall less than expected. In terms of hot rolling, high inventory pressure still exists at present. In order to speed up the turnover speed, Jiulong Warehouse temporarily adjusted the storage fee charging standard, but the output did not drop significantly, and the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent. However, the profit repair of building materials was more obvious than that of hot rolling due to the good production control in the early stage. The phenomenon of hot rolling conversion to thread in steel mills led to the lower-than-expected rise of iron and the suppression of ore price, and coking coal coal inventory and port inventory at the same time face the problem of the storm, and domestic mine production slowly rebounded, the supply side of sufficient for the price formation of negative, cost support is relatively weak. At present, the pressure of building materials inventory is not prominent, but in the context of the resumption of production, to the warehouse pressure or gradually appear, and hot roll high supply of high inventory will also form a disturbance to the price, due to the "golden nine silver ten" season demand is still in the verification period, for the price upward drive is insufficient, short-term prices or low shock operation is given priority.
 
 

The Steel House:After a short rebound, domestic steel in stock prices fell sharply again last week. In addition to the influence of the capital market, the weakening of steel mills' production reduction and the weakening of business expectations are the main reasons. Judging from the recent market, after the sharp drop in steel prices, whether it is a short process or a long process, the losses of steel mills have increased and the supply side is likely to continue to shrink. Recently, the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated. The issuance in August was close to 800 billion yuan, the third highest in history. The demand for construction steel is expected to improve. Last week, steel stocks continued to decline faster than plates. The pressure on plates is greater than construction steel. On the whole, the current market is still facing certain pressure. It is expected that the domestic steel market price will continue to fall this week, but the decline will slow down. Focus on changes in steel mill production, changes in inventories and changes in the growth rate of infrastructure investment.

Lange:In August, the PMI index continued to fall below the line of prosperity and decline, indicating that the downward pressure on the economy has increased. The demand index is below the line of prosperity and decline, and there is a further downward trend; the proportion of enterprises reflecting insufficient demand continues to increase, and the problem of insufficient demand is likely to develop further. We should vigorously enhance the counter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, significantly expand the scale of government investment in public goods, effectively and forcefully drive the increase in enterprise orders, the recovery of production and business activities, and reverse the market-led demand contraction and economic downturn as soon as possible. From the black futures market, the black system continued to fall mainly, this week the disk coking coal, coke fell more than 10%, iron ore fell more than 9%, thread and hot roll fell more than 7%. The main thread 01 closed 3051, down 57, down 236 points from last Friday's closing price 3287, and the weekly settlement price 3113, down 182 points from last week. The latest position was 1.718 million hands, 369000 hands from last Friday's increase. Over the past week, a large number of positions and prices fell sharply, engulfing the previous two weeks of gains and breaking down, approaching the 3000 mark, this week there is still the possibility of testing the 3000 mark, need to pay attention to the game near the mark. From the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to the impact of the expected peak season, capacity release efforts to strengthen again, iron production increased slightly, while the variety of production is mixed. Demand side: The traditional off-season is shifting to the peak season, but the release of market demand is still insufficient at the beginning of the transition. Cost side: Due to the decline in iron ore and scrap prices, the stability of coke prices has weakened production cost support again. Therefore, Lange Iron and Steel Research Center expects (2024.9.9-9.13) that the domestic steel market will be in the off-peak season conversion, steel mill supply again strong, market turnover is less than expected, cost support again weakened under the influence of the domestic steel market or will show a weak downward market.

Tang and Song:This week into the first half of September, infrastructure, real estate construction projects ushered in a favorable period, the overall steel rigid demand release continued to grow slightly, the overall demand release degree is difficult to meet expectations. Speculative demand remained low due to pessimistic macro expectations. Overall steel demand growth is difficult to have a significant release. From the supply side, with the steel price again significantly weakened, steel enterprises loss amplitude increased, superimposed steel enterprises loss time is longer, long process production line start or a small decline. Steel social inventory or a small decline, the north and south regions, the variety of inventory ups and downs are different. On the whole, the global economic recession concerns continue, the domestic Shanghai Stock Exchange continues to bottom out, the macro pessimistic atmosphere is shrouded, the superimposed "Golden Nine" demand prospects are still uncertain, and the market pessimism has increased. Raw fuel prices fell more than steel under the influence of the expected increase in steel production cuts, and cost support weakened. This week, the release of August economic performance data, is expected to boost market sentiment is limited. However, considering the market's current fundamentals have not changed much, production remains low, for the market has a certain role to lift, superimposed on the cycle in stock significantly weakened, sentiment has been a certain degree of catharsis, this week's decline is expected to slow down. Steel prices are expected to continue to be weak this week, but the decline narrowed significantly. The period snail is concerned about the support near the 2950, above the 3070 pressure.

youfa group han weidong:The weather was cool, but the market was disappointing. Today, the Wenhua Commodity Index rebounded after hitting a new low and falling below last year's lowest point. Steel prices also rebounded slightly after hitting a new low. The market encountered systemic risks. But there have been some new changes in the market: the iron ore 2501 contract fell below $80, which is lower than the cost of many mines. You know, the average import price of iron ore from January to February this year was $130. Tangshan strip steel prices also fell below the 3000, futures premium also fell into a discount, can not be hedged, forward futures are likely to change from a risk-proof short configuration to a winter storage configuration. The contradiction between supply and demand in the industry is not great, but the demand is too poor, which has a great impact on market confidence and expectations. Next, wait patiently for the market to stabilize. Pay attention to three aspects: whether the Mandarin Commodity Index starts to rebound or continues to decline, which is more important than the fundamentals. Second, the output of steel mills must continue to reduce production. Third, depending on the demand in this year's peak season, whether there can be a month-on-month improvement or no significant decline year-on-year. I hope that the market will be reversed, and if it is not, it will come!