Experts say the city-September 23

My steel:On the supply side, the supply of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.0802 million tons, up 72400 tons or 0.9 percent from the previous week. Steel production increased in the current period, mainly concentrated in rebar and wire rod production increased significantly; on Friday, the total inventory of large steel was 13.8223 million tons, down 364800 tons on a weekly basis, a decrease of 2.6. On Friday, the total inventory of large varieties has been de-oriented, and building materials plate inventory changes are more consistent, building materials, plates are continued to go to the library, but the factory library, social library structure appeared differentiation. On the consumption side, last Friday's weekly consumption of large varieties was 8.445 million tons, of which building materials consumption fell 10.1 percent month-on-month, plate consumption fell 2.3 percent month-on-month. On Friday, the consumption of building materials and plates in large varieties showed a certain decline. On the supply side, there is still room for thread production to rise. Hot coil production also or slightly rebounded, but the recovery rate was slow. On the demand side, the apparent consumption of thread and hot coil continued to remain low. However, with the slight increase in the capital availability rate of construction sites, the increase in working days this week and the expectation of replenishment before the festival, thread demand still has room for recovery. In terms of inventory, steel inventory has diverged. As thread output continues to pick up, thread to the library range or narrowed, hot roll thanks to the recent decline in production, to maintain a faster rate of de-stocking, and with the National Day holiday before the replenishment just need to release, inventory still has the power to de-stocking.
 

The Steel House:Last week, the domestic steel market prices in general to shock strong operation, market sentiment has improved. First, steel production continued to decline. In August, crude steel and steel production continued to decline year-on-year and month-on-month. In particular, the output of rebar fell sharply, and the pressure on resource supply eased. Second, the first round of coke price increases landed, steel production costs moved up, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rate rebounded, the price of raw fuel must be supported. It is expected that the domestic steel market prices will continue to rise slightly this week. Focus on the production of steel mills, especially the resumption of production of electric furnace enterprises, and changes in the growth rate of infrastructure investment after the acceleration of special debt issuance.

Lange:In September, the Federal Reserve started this round of interest rate cut cycle at the pace of 50 basis points. At the same time, there will be a possibility of 50 basis point interest rate cuts during the year. The global interest rate cut wave will bring a certain degree of benefit to the global economy. At present, China's economic operation is generally stable, and high-quality development is still steadily advancing. However, it should also be noted that the international environment is becoming more complex and severe, unstable, uncertain, and unpredictable factors are increasing, and problems such as insufficient domestic demand are still emerging. There are pains in the conversion of new and old kinetic energy, and some industries and enterprises are still facing difficulties in operation. It is necessary to continue to strengthen macro-control, deepen innovation-driven development, deeply tap the potential of domestic demand, enhance the vitality of business entities, stabilize market expectations, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of the economy. From the black futures disk, the main thread closed 3165, down 9, holding 1.98 million hands, daily increase of 4451 hands, compared with last Friday's position increased by 180000 hands. From the weekly point of view, the closing price 3190 fell 25 points from last week's closing price, and the weekly settlement price 3180, which was 3110 70 points higher than last week's settlement price. Prices showed a high fall last week, but the center of gravity is still higher than last week. This week, the focus is on the support near the lower 3140, while the upper pressure is concerned about the 3220, if not upward breakthrough, the probability of about 100 yuan in the range of shocks. From the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to the peak season expectations and the impact of some varieties of improved profits, capacity release efforts fluctuate slightly, iron production continues to rise, while varieties of production is mixed. Demand side: the traditional peak season market transactions pick up, the demand for business stocking has also improved significantly, but the southern region may also be affected by a number of typhoons in the autumn, market transactions may be repeated. Cost side: As iron ore prices fell slightly, scrap prices remained stable and coke prices rose slightly, making production cost support resilient. Therefore, Lange Steel Research Center expects (2024.9.23-9.27) that the domestic steel market will continue to fluctuate and rise under the influence of peak season demand release expectations, increased supply fluctuations in steel mills, continued recovery in market transactions, and the re-emergence of cost support toughness.

Tang and Song:This week into late September, infrastructure, real estate construction projects in a favorable period, and near the "11" holiday, the terminal there is a demand for replenishment, the overall steel demand release or continue to grow. From the supply side, the loss of steel enterprises decreased, superimposed on the end of some steel enterprises maintenance, long-process production line operating rate or continue to rise slightly. Steel social inventories continued to decline, with differences in the rise and fall of inventories in the north and south regions and varieties. On the whole, the Fed's interest rate cut landed, the peripheral macro hype came to an end, the market trading logic will be tilted to domestic policy and fundamental logic. At present, the effective demand in the domestic market is still insufficient, the loan interest rate cut interest rate hope failed, the market mentality suffered a blow. Considering the worries about the accumulation of libraries after the 11th holiday and the important economic data to be released in the United States during the holiday, the market is more worried about the post-holiday period, and the degree of pre-holiday demand release may be difficult to meet expectations. However, considering that the price of raw fuel is easy to rise and fall under the support of the long holiday replenishment, the cost of steel is supported. As well as near the end of the 3rd quarter, autumn and winter environmental protection production restrictions and crude steel control policies are expected to be introduced. There is still some resilience in the short-term market. It is expected that this week's steel price shock adjustment probability is large, the period below the focus on 3080 support, after the break to see weak, above the focus on 3160 pressure.

youfa group han weidong:After the Fed's interest rate cut boots landed, a new era has come for the world economy, and we wait and see a series of changes it brings. Steel market returns to fundamentals plus Wenhua Commodity Index. In September, market demand still fell a lot year-on-year. The problem in the market lies on the demand side, and the solution to the problem lies on the supply side. The current market contradictions are difficult to completely resolve, so the market is likely to fluctuate in a new range. An upward breakthrough requires very good expectations and a substantial increase in demand. It is difficult! It is also difficult to break through the cost bottleneck that has suffered serious losses and production cuts and some raw combustion materials! Unless there is a systemic risk such as a larger crisis abroad. At present, it is important to organize this year's business and plan the future business strategy and model. If this year's business performance is not good, it means that the current model is not suitable and cannot continue next year. The contradiction between supply and demand next year can only become greater. The increase in exports is gone, the increase in plates is gone, and the construction project operation rate this year can calculate the prospect of construction steel next year. But one thing please rest assured that the steel industry will always be the pillar of the national economy, and the demand reduction is in single digits. What we have to do is the remaining 90. This year, I met many good enterprises and high-level people. The same market is still profitable, but the model is definitely different!