Experts say the city-October 14

My steel:On the supply side, the supply of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.6382 million tons, up 102400 tons or 1.2 percent from the previous week. Steel production increased in the current period, mainly concentrated in the increase in rebar production is more obvious; on Friday, the total inventory of large steel was 13.1008 million tons, down 290300 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 2.2. On Friday, the total inventory of large varieties has been de-stocked, and building materials plate inventory changes are more consistent, building materials, plates are continued to go to the library, factory library, social library structure is consistent, are maintained to go to the library. On the consumption side, the weekly consumption of large varieties on Friday was 8.9285 million tons, of which building materials consumption rose 25.5 percent month-on-month and sheet consumption rose 3.3 percent month-on-month. On Friday, the consumption of building materials and plates in large varieties showed a certain increase. On the supply side, thread production still has room to rise, hot roll production also or slightly rebounded, but the speed of production recovery or accelerated. However, it is worth noting that due to the current expansion of steel mills profits, steel mills have a strong willingness to resume production, and inventory pressure may gradually increase. Focus on the degree of subsequent steel inventory accumulation, as well as last Saturday's fiscal policy landing, or the later steel demand is expected to have some stimulus.

The Steel House:After the holiday, the domestic steel market price showed a trend of rising and falling, and the changes of various varieties are also different. Among them, construction steel and hot-rolled coils are greatly affected by the futures market, in stock most market prices have been lower than the pre-holiday level; structural steel, cold-rolled steel, etc., although there has been a correction, but the overall increase is still higher than before the holiday. From the perspective of the recent market, on the good side, first, there are still many favorable policies in the near future, and the policies that have been determined in the early stage are gradually implemented, and it is more likely that the fiscal policy will continue to increase in the later stage; second, the overall inventory increase during the National Day holiday is not much, especially Construction steel is at a low level in recent years, and inventory pressure is not great; third, coke prices continue to rise, steel mill production costs rise; fourth, more than 1 trillion in September, coupled with the landing of ultra-long-term special bond projects, infrastructure demand is expected to increase. The unfavorable factors are: first, after the sharp rise in steel prices in the early stage, the merchants' inventory resources are profitable and their willingness to cash out profits is enhanced; second, the short-term stimulus effect of the policy is weakened, the market will eventually return to the fundamentals, the production enthusiasm of steel mills will increase, and the pressure on resource supply will increase. After the steel price correction and the digestion of low-cost inventory resources, the domestic steel market price is expected to stop falling and rebound this week.

Lange:In the face of a more complex domestic and international environment, China's economic operation is generally stable and steady, the formation of new quality productivity is accelerating, people's livelihood security is constantly strengthening, new positive progress has been made in preventing and resolving risks in key areas, and high-quality development has been further promoted. At present, the external environment has become more complex and severe. Major economies have weak growth momentum and heavy debt burdens. Recently, interest rate cuts have been generally implemented. The international market has fluctuated significantly, global trade protection has intensified, and uncertain and unstable factors have increased; while the downward pressure on the domestic economy has increased. Since the third quarter, major economic indicators such as industry, investment and consumption have fluctuated, and some industries have "inward" competition. However, as the effects of various stock policies continue to be released, especially the introduction and implementation of incremental policies, market expectations have improved significantly in the near future, focusing on increasing the counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, expanding effective domestic demand, increasing assistance to enterprises, and promoting the real estate market. In five aspects, including stabilizing the decline and boosting the capital market, a package of incremental policies has been launched to promote the sustained recovery of the economy.Judging from the black futures market, as of October 11, the thread main 01 contract closed at 3468, up 8 per day and down 83 per week. The weekly settlement price 3504, up 33 points from last week. As of the 11th night close, the black system closed up strongly, the main contract hot roll, coke and iron ore rose more than 2%, thread rose 1.88, coke rose more than 3%. Night market in the policy favorable expectations driven by active pull up, thread main 01 contract closed 3520, up 65, the lowest 3436, the highest 3524. Position 1.78 million hands, increase position 32000 hands. But the need to prevent sentiment after the high profit-taking of the fall of the market. Upper pressure: 3551 and 3612; Lower support: 3442. From the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to macro-policy plus code, peak season expectations and the impact of large profits of varieties, capacity release efforts to enhance, iron production continued to rise, while the production of varieties of mixed performance. Demand side: due to the continuous increase of macro policies, market transactions show a trend of high first and then low, and the impact of "buying up but not buying down" is more obvious. Cost side: As iron ore prices rose first and then fell, scrap prices rose slightly, and coke prices rose sharply, making production cost support significantly enhanced. Therefore, Lange Iron and Steel Research Center expects (2024.10.14-10.18) that the domestic steel market will rise first and then fall under the influence of the expectation of macro policy increase, the deepening of demand effect in peak season, the continuous rise of steel supply, the obvious instability of market transactions and the strengthening of cost support.

Tang and Song:This week is the peak season, the seasonal release of terminal demand, with prices falling significantly, low speculative demand still exists, steel demand is expected to continue to grow slightly. From the supply side, with the profit level of some steel enterprises can still, long-process production line operating rate continued to increase slightly. Steel social inventories may continue to decline, with differences in the rise and fall of inventories in the north and south regions and varieties. On the whole, looking back on the previous demand release more or from favorable policy boost, the actual demand improvement is not obvious. Although the post-holiday demand basically returned to the pre-holiday level, there is still greater uncertainty as to whether the subsequent demand can continue to maintain a high level. In the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand of steel fundamentals is not prominent, and the accumulation of contradictions still takes time. Market dominance is still greatly influenced by macro policies, and the degree of policy strength directly increases the uncertainty of market adjustment time. The Ministry of Finance will hold a press conference on October 12 to introduce the situation of "increasing the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal policy and promoting high-quality economic development. Whether the policy can reignite market expectations remains to be watched. Overall policy there are certain good expectations, and with the fall in steel prices, low-level replenishment demand is still, the in stock market volatility is expected to run strongly this cycle. Focus on 3553 pressure above the period snail, once the breakthrough to see the 3639. Below, focus on the support near the 3350.

youfa group han weidong:The press conference of the Ministry of Finance has a very large amount of information. The policy is particularly active and not radical. It is highly targeted. It focuses on solving the constraints of local debt on local hands and feet, solving the basic needs of real estate bottoming, and solving the land occupation pressure. The liberation of funds has provided strong support for the major commercial banks to further relax. In a word, the "immediate worries" of economic development have been solved, at the same time, it puts forward the direction of fiscal and taxation reform this year and next year and the idea of solving "far-away worries. The next "boot" in the near future is what was approved by the National People's Congress? What is the tone set by the December economic work meeting for next year, the closing year of the five-year plan? The future is bright, and today we have only gone through the stage of expected transformation, and the future will enter the stage of economic transformation and recovery! All change starts with recognizing and acknowledging the problem. At present, the demand of the iron and steel industry will not change all at once, and the overall contradiction between supply and demand is not big. The price of strip steel has entered a shock stage of more than 3500. If the price rises to a certain high point in the later period, it is necessary to cash in profits and achieve a perfect ending this year. If the price falls back, there is no need to worry. It may be the price for winter storage in the market. We already know the lowest point, but we don't know, the goal before the Spring Festival is to make more money, turn losses into profits, have nothing to do, drink more tea, and think deeply about the future!