2024-10-11
Oversupply of rebar highlights
RecentThreaded steel,hot rollingThe prices of coil plates and raw materials both showed a trend of stopping falling and rising sharply. What is the reason? Later periodsteel marketHow will it run?
On September 19, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut. The market expects that domestic monetary policy will increase easing. However, on September 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Lending Center to announce that the 1-year loan market quotation rate (LPR) It is 3.35, and the LPR over 5 years is 3.85, both unchanged from August. Commodity prices continued to bottom out as the data fell short of market expectations. On September 24, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce financial support for high-quality economic development and answer reporters' questions. Pan Gongsheng, governor of the people's Bank of China, said: first, reduce the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rate, and drive down the market benchmark interest rate. Second, lower interest rates on stock mortgages and unify the minimum down payment for mortgages. Third, the creation of new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market. Market expectations began to improve, the stock market and commodity markets rose sharply. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on September 26 to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy the next economic work. Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting. The meeting emphasized the need to increase the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies; to reduce the deposit reserve ratio and implement strong interest rate cuts; to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. Market optimism rose, investor confidence increased significantly, and both the stock and commodity markets rose further. On September 27, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). On September 29-30, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing and other places introduced favorable policies such as further optimizing real estate purchase restrictions and reducing the down payment ratio of the first home to 15%. After the implementation of the new real estate policy, the number of house visits and transaction volume increased significantly during the "Eleventh" holiday.
Since September 24, favorable policies have continued to be introduced, and market expectations have reversed,steel priceSharp rise, Shanghai areaThreaded steel priceFrom 3260 yuan/ton on September 23 to 3730 yuan/ton on October 8, a cumulative increase of 470 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.4; hot rolling in ShanghaiPlate priceFrom 3100 yuan/ton on September 23 to 3600 yuan/ton on October 8, a cumulative increase of 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.1. With the sharp rise in steel prices, steel mill profits have also rebounded sharply. From September 23 to October 8, the spot profit of rebar blast furnace increased from 156 yuan/ton to 268 yuan/ton, the spot profit of electric furnace steel plant increased from loss 81 yuan/ton to profit 168 yuan/ton, and the spot profit of hot rolled coil blast furnace increased from loss 102 yuan/ton to profit 38 yuan/ton.
The sharp rebound in steel mill profits is bound to promote the release of steel production, steel supply pressure will increase significantly. As of October 4, the output of the five major steel varieties in Zhoudu was 8.5358 million tons, down 7.6 percent from the same period last year, down 571400 tons from this year's high and 2.6094 million tons from the recent five-year high, so there is more room for production release. This year, domestic consumption is weak, superimposed steel export prices are lower than the world's major steel exporters, cost-effective, steel mills and traders actively seek overseas orders, January-August China's net exports of crude steel increased by 23% year-on-year, significantly easing the pressure on domestic consumption. Since the beginning of this year, the FOB export price of China's hot-rolled coil has been continuously lower than the export price of hot-rolled coil in CIS countries. However, after the recent sharp rise in steel prices, the FOB export price of China's hot-rolled coil is 52 USD/ton higher than that of hot-rolled coil in CIS countries. The weakening of export price advantage will definitely affect the export of steel in the later period.
In summary, the market is expected to improve significantly with the recent favorable policies such as lowering the standard, lowering interest rates, lowering the interest rate of the stock of mortgage loans and promoting the stabilization of real estate,steel priceA sharp rise, steel mill profits rebounded significantly, will stimulate the release of steel production and steel production release space is still large, later supply pressure will increase. However, it is difficult for domestic consumption to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, and the export performance-to-price ratio will be greatly reduced after the sharp rise in steel prices, which will affect China's steel exports, and the oversupply will be highlighted in the later period. However, if there are still favorable policies in the later stage, and market confidence and expectations have been greatly improved, steel prices are also more difficult to fall sharply, so steel prices are expected to enter a shock stage. (Author: Zhongzhou Futures)
Experts say the city-November 21
2024-10-21
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