2024-10-16
Industrial contradictions in the steel market are still accumulating
boosted by favorable domestic policies,Threaded steelThe current price recently bottomed out strong upward, the main contract from the low cumulative rise of nearly 17.2, the main city in stock prices also recorded 500~720 yuan/ton range of increases. At present, the introduction of favorable domestic policies is driving this round.steel priceThe main factor of the upside. But looking at the industrial end, the contradiction between supply and demand of rebar is still accumulating, if the market trading logic switches to the real end, the upward momentum of steel prices will weaken.
Since September, the domestic macro-control efforts continue to expand, market optimism is expected to continue to ferment, the steel market sentiment has been boosted. In the long run, the current policy is conducive to the improvement of steel demand. On the one hand, as the real estate market gradually stops falling and stabilizes, the negative drag on steel demand will weaken; on the other hand, with the support of a series of incremental policies of "stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand and increasing risks", infrastructure is expected to continue to play a supporting role, and manufacturing demand will also grow steadily.
However, the current round of steel prices upward industry side did not cooperate, the recent contradiction between supply and demand of rebar is still accumulating. Thanks to the sharp rebound in steel prices, steel mill profits ushered in a significant improvement. According to statistics, the steel union 247 steel mills and 76 building materials independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the profit ratio of 71.43 percent, 69.34 percent, low cumulative increase of 70.13 percent, 68.03 percent, both rose to the same period of the year high. To this end, the production of construction steel mills was active, and the weekly output of rebar rebounded for seven consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 756600 tons to 2.3626 million tons. In addition, under the spot cost accounting, the mainstream area of rebar ton of steel profits continue to be good, the follow-up production still has incremental space.
At the same time, under the influence of holiday factors, the demand for rebar first fell and then rose, the latest value of weekly apparent demand was 2.4849 million tons, an increase of 609900 tons, lower than the pre-holiday level. And the country's major tradersConstruction SteelDaily volume performance was relatively weak, mostly due to reduced speculative demand. At present, although the demand for rebar in the peak season has improved month-on-month, the growth rate is general, and the high-frequency demand index is still at a low level in the same period in recent years. And favorable policies passed to the entity side and bring demand improvement there is a long time lag, overlay construction project site funds in place to improve limited, short-term construction steel demand is difficult to have substantial improvement. At this stage, the rebar presents a stable situation of supply and demand, but under a good profit situation, the supply recovery will be faster than demand, and the subsequent northern demand will face seasonal weakness, industrial contradictions will continue to accumulate, and then inhibit steel prices upward.
To sum up, thanks to the favorable domestic macro policies,Threaded steel priceRecently bottomed out upward, but the fundamentals did not substantially improve, supply recovery brought increased pressure, superimposed on the peak season demand performance in general, supply and demand stability situation, steel prices upward drive weakened. Relatively favorable is the domestic policy expectations, follow-up attention to the performance of rebar demand, beware of market trading logic switch to the real end.
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Experts say the city-November 21
2024-10-21
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