Experts say the city-November 4

My steel:On the supply side, the supply of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.6728 million tons, down 133000 tons, or 1.5 percent, from the previous week. On Friday, the output of large steel varieties, except for the outer ring of wire, decreased month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of large steel on Friday was 12.349 million tons, down 244200 tons, or 1.94 percent, from the previous week. On Friday, the total inventory of large varieties in addition to the outer periphery of the rebar showed a decline: the five major material factory warehouses in addition to the outer periphery of the wire decreased month-on-month, of which the cold-rolled plate roll decline is more obvious. The five major material libraries except the outer periphery of the rebar decreased month-on-month, of which the decline in hot-rolled plate rolls was the most obvious. On the consumption side, the weekly consumption of large varieties on Friday was 8.917 million tons, down 0.2 percent month-on-month, including building materials consumption rose 0.2 percent month-on-month, sheet consumption fell 0.5 percent month-on-month. Apparent consumption of large varieties fell slightly on Friday. At present, the market has different views on future macro events, which leads to obvious fluctuations in both disk and in stock prices under the state of continuous game. However, the main macro events will be concentrated this week, and the core trading logic of the current market still revolves around macro operation. The results of each event may determine the market trend in the future. In terms of fundamentals, the current thread pressure is initially reflected, but the output is beginning to fall, the future inventory pressure may be reduced, and the plate consumption is still extremely resilient. Under the condition that the output does not increase, the inventory continues to be depleted, and the fundamentals are hard to say. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range before the macro events fall to the ground this week, focusing on whether the events exceed expectations.

The Steel House:Last week, the domestic steel market prices stopped falling and rebounded, domestic steel mill production continued to recover, steel mills and market inventories fell slightly, the overall market supply and demand weak balance. From the perspective of the recent market, the demand for construction steel will gradually enter the off-season, and the demand for plates is relatively good; the overall steel inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years; the recent factory prices of steel mills have generally risen, and the cost of market resources has risen. Coupled with the sharp correction of steel prices in the early stage and the gradual release of market risks, it is expected that the domestic steel market prices will fluctuate steadily this week, with the plate market slightly stronger than construction steel.

Lange:At the beginning of November, the world will pay more attention to the U.S. election, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and the implementation of China's fiscal incremental policy. At present, all regions and departments must earnestly implement a series of major measures determined by the Politburo meeting to implement various stock policies and incremental policies. Put it in place, play a good combination, do a good job in the next two months, and strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals and tasks. We should focus on efforts to achieve the annual economic and social development goals, continue to grasp the implementation of a package of incremental policies, timely assessment and optimization of policies, increase counter-cyclical adjustment, and further enhance the effectiveness of macro-control. At the same time, we should pay more attention to the interaction between policies and the market, fully mobilize the enthusiasm of all parties, and better stimulate growth momentum. From the black futures market, the black Friday overall closed down, most varieties of one-day decline of more than 1%. From the thread main 01 contract, the weekly settlement price 3429, 90 points higher than last week's settlement price, the weekly price center of gravity slightly moved up. This week's focus is on the support near the lower 3350, while the upper focus is on the two key pressure levels of 3400 and 3450. If affected by events such as the US election, it is still stable above the 3400 mark, and there is still room for further upward movement. From the point of view of the steel in stock market, the supply side: due to the continuous narrowing of the profitability of steel mills and even losses, the release of production capacity gradually weakened, iron production decreased slightly, while the production of varieties showed mixed performance. Demand side: as the market is still in the traditional peak season demand, market transactions show a low rise in the situation, "buy up not buy down" mentality still occupies the mainstream. Cost side: As iron ore prices rose slightly, scrap prices fluctuated slightly, coke prices remained stable, making production costs support toughness again. Therefore, Lange Iron and Steel Research Center predicts (2024.11.4-11.8) that the domestic steel market will be under the influence of the interweaving of multiple factors at home and abroad, the release of terminal demand, the contraction of steel mill supply, the rise of low market turnover and the reappearance of cost support toughness, the domestic steel market will show a volatile upward trend in the frequent conversion between expectation and reality.

Tang and Song:This week is still in the end-demand seasonal release period, steel demand still has some resilience, demand or maintain the current level. From the supply side, as the profits of some steel enterprises narrowed significantly, the operating rate of long-process production lines or growth slowed down; the operating rate of short-process continued to remain high; the steel supply and demand market as a whole showed a state of "high supply and stable, stable demand. Steel social inventory decreased slightly, the north and south regions, the variety of inventory rise and fall is different.Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is about to pass, there is little room for incremental improvement in demand, but there is a certain degree of resilience in current demand, and inventories remain low. Overlay steel costs still have some support, steel selling pressure is not big, the accumulation of industrial contradictions still need some time. The macro level is expected to heat up again, on October 25, the regular meeting of the National People's Congress once again stressed that efforts to achieve the annual economic goals, grasp the landing of a package of incremental policies, to form a good support for the market. In the short term, the market once again returned to macro-led, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the U.S. election and other important events near the market uncertainty increased, high attention to risk control mainly. Pay close attention to changes in macro expectations. It is expected that this week's black period in stock price strong adjustment probability is greater. Focus on 3475 pressure above the snail and support near the 3385 below.

youfa group han weidong:Last week, I went to Nanjing to attend the 20th anniversary of the Steel House. Wu often said that "capital determines prices, prices determine supply and demand, and funds determine demand", "off-season is used to increase prices, peak season is used to remove inventory". Now is the tail period of the peak season to inventory, and the back will soon enter the off season! Comrade in the article pointed out that the second price increase this year was around the meeting of the steel house. during the meeting time of the steel house, he accidentally ran into an important people's congress! The recent price shock, waiting for boots to fall to the ground, if not expected, the last fall to the winter storage price, if more than expected, there may be no lower price, expected to cash in real time, is a low price, if the result is neutral, continue to play to the recognized winter storage price, after the Spring Festival to start. Recently, the article always likes to sing Dao Lang's song "Can't Return to Our Former". In the middle of this month, there will be a grand annual meeting of 3000 people of Lange Steel Network. Several very good economists will appear at the same time to interpret what kind of 2025 the new macro policy will bring!